Atlanta Falcons (-4) @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers – 1.25am, Friday
David Goldman / AP Images
David Goldman / AP Images / AP Images
ON PAPER, THIS looks like a slam dunk win for the visitors. At 5-3, the Falcons lead the NFC South and have scored 37 more points than the second-highest scoring team in the league.
They head to Raymond James Stadium to face the only team in the NFC yet to win a game at home with Matt Ryan a legit MVP candidate mid-way through the season.
This week he faces a Bucs defence that ranks 23rd against the pass and there’s little doubt he will be looking firmly in the direction of Julio Jones who averages over 110 yards receiving and has scored seven touchdowns in nine career games against their divisional rivals.
However the Bucs have won the last three, including a week one victory in the Georgia Dome and are looking for a first four-win streak over Atlanta in 13 years.
Verdict: Weird things can happen in divisional games, especially on Thursday night football but the Falcons should be too good. Atlanta by 5+.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-2.5) – 6pm Sunday
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Kathy Willens / AP/Press Association Images
Kathy Willens / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
With the NFC East looking like the Cowboys to lose, this game could go a long way towards determining the wild card spots in the National Football Conference.
Both teams sit at 4-3 though they’ve gone about accumulating those four wins in very different ways.
Philly has wins over two division leading teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings while all three of their losses have been by one score against teams that are no worse than 4-4.
Big Blue, on the other hand, has failed to beat a team with a winning record since besting the Cowboys back in week one, relying on their 10th ranked defence to give them the edge in close games.
Verdict: I really like this Eagles team and am a little surprised the spread is so favourable to the Giants (they get -3 for being at home but even then). Philadelphia by 3+.
Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers (-4) - 9.25pm Sunday
Denis Poroy / AP/Press Association Images
Denis Poroy / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
I’m still hoping the Titans come good in a terrible divison and live up to my pre-season pick of winning the AFC South and their offence definitely showed signs of life last time out… though admittedly that was against the Jags.
Every week I look at the Chargers and think ‘how does this team have a losing record?’. But then I remember just how many weapons Philip Rivers has lost on offence. Despite this, they have the second best offence in terms of points in the league but can’t seem to stop teams from scoring on them.
Defensive end Joey Bosa has been even better than advertised though this Titans offensive line — which ranks in the top ten in run and pass blocking in Football Outsiders DVOA — will be a tough test for the Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Verdict: The Titans will continue to be an up-and-down team that will finish with an 8-8 record. San Diego by 5+
Phelan Ebenhack / AP/Press Association Images
Phelan Ebenhack / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
If you’d have told me that one of these teams would come into this game with a 6-2 record — including going 5-0 on the road — with a quarterback in the MVP conversation, I’d have put the mortgage on it being Denver.
Instead it’s the Oakland Raiders and Derek Carr who hold the second best record in the AFC and who last week overcame an NFL record 23 penalties (for 200 yards) to claim an unlikely overtime win.
The Broncos defence has, at times, been better than last year’s version and face a second high-powered offence in as many weeks after getting the better of the Chargers in week eight.
Verdict: The Raiders beat the Broncos last season when they were a significantly worse team than they are this around. Oakland by 3.
And the rest (picks against the spread in bold):
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5) Dallas Cowboys (-7) @ Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-6)
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers (-3) @ LA Rams Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5) Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Time for the Raiders to show the NFL if they're legit
Atlanta Falcons (-4) @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers – 1.25am, Friday
ON PAPER, THIS looks like a slam dunk win for the visitors. At 5-3, the Falcons lead the NFC South and have scored 37 more points than the second-highest scoring team in the league.
They head to Raymond James Stadium to face the only team in the NFC yet to win a game at home with Matt Ryan a legit MVP candidate mid-way through the season.
This week he faces a Bucs defence that ranks 23rd against the pass and there’s little doubt he will be looking firmly in the direction of Julio Jones who averages over 110 yards receiving and has scored seven touchdowns in nine career games against their divisional rivals.
However the Bucs have won the last three, including a week one victory in the Georgia Dome and are looking for a first four-win streak over Atlanta in 13 years.
Verdict: Weird things can happen in divisional games, especially on Thursday night football but the Falcons should be too good. Atlanta by 5+.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-2.5) – 6pm Sunday
With the NFC East looking like the Cowboys to lose, this game could go a long way towards determining the wild card spots in the National Football Conference.
Both teams sit at 4-3 though they’ve gone about accumulating those four wins in very different ways.
Philly has wins over two division leading teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings while all three of their losses have been by one score against teams that are no worse than 4-4.
Big Blue, on the other hand, has failed to beat a team with a winning record since besting the Cowboys back in week one, relying on their 10th ranked defence to give them the edge in close games.
Verdict: I really like this Eagles team and am a little surprised the spread is so favourable to the Giants (they get -3 for being at home but even then). Philadelphia by 3+.
Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers (-4) - 9.25pm Sunday
I’m still hoping the Titans come good in a terrible divison and live up to my pre-season pick of winning the AFC South and their offence definitely showed signs of life last time out… though admittedly that was against the Jags.
Every week I look at the Chargers and think ‘how does this team have a losing record?’. But then I remember just how many weapons Philip Rivers has lost on offence. Despite this, they have the second best offence in terms of points in the league but can’t seem to stop teams from scoring on them.
Defensive end Joey Bosa has been even better than advertised though this Titans offensive line — which ranks in the top ten in run and pass blocking in Football Outsiders DVOA — will be a tough test for the Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Verdict: The Titans will continue to be an up-and-down team that will finish with an 8-8 record. San Diego by 5+
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (scratch) – 1.30am Monday
If you’d have told me that one of these teams would come into this game with a 6-2 record — including going 5-0 on the road — with a quarterback in the MVP conversation, I’d have put the mortgage on it being Denver.
Instead it’s the Oakland Raiders and Derek Carr who hold the second best record in the AFC and who last week overcame an NFL record 23 penalties (for 200 yards) to claim an unlikely overtime win.
The Broncos defence has, at times, been better than last year’s version and face a second high-powered offence in as many weeks after getting the better of the Chargers in week eight.
Verdict: The Raiders beat the Broncos last season when they were a significantly worse team than they are this around. Oakland by 3.
And the rest (picks against the spread in bold):
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys (-7) @ Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-6)
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
Carolina Panthers (-3) @ LA Rams
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Analysis: How the Falcons dialed up the perfect play to beat the Packers at the death
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