THE TRADITIONAL POWERS can seem totally unwilling to open the doors to potential upstarts in international rugby. That doesn’t prevent shocks from happening.
Three of the most memorable occasions at the last World Cup in 2019 were upsets. Hosts Japan played a thrilling style of rugby to beat Ireland and Scotland, earning a first-ever quarter-final, while Uruguay had an emotional win against Fiji in their opening game.
In fairness, Fiji aren’t one of the traditional powers and they go to World Cups aiming to upset the applecart by beating the biggest nations. Few who watched it will ever forget the Flying Fijians’ rousing victory against Wales at the 2007 World Cup, a win that sent them into the quarter-finals.
Back in 2015, Japan produced one of the great World Cup shocks. Their last-gasp success against South Africa was eventually made into a film, The Brighton Miracle.
In 2011, Tonga rocked France. There’s usually at least one stirring upset at every World Cup, so where will it come from this time around?
The obvious place to start is Pool C, where Australia and Wales are joined by Fiji, Georgia, and Portugal. The Portuguese are minnows as they get set for their second World Cup appearance, and they’ll be aiming to cause their upsets against Georgia and Fiji.
For their part, the Georgians and Fijians will be hoping to topple the Wallabies and Wales. Australia have had a poor start to the new Eddie Jones era, while Wales had a dire Six Nations campaign this year after Warren Gatland took over.
The Wallabies are currently ranked eighth in the world, with Wales just behind. We know that things can come together quickly for World Cups, but it’s fair to say that the Aussies and the Welsh aren’t looking too hot right now.
Fiji kicked off their build-up to the tournament with a fine win over Tonga last weekend. The powerhouse Josua Tuisova made his first Test start at inside centre, having shone there all season for Lyon after moving from the wing, earning a place in the Top 14 team of the season. There was a mixture of power and flair in the forward pack, while debutant Caleb Muntz showed promise at out-half, a problem position for Fiji in the past.
Muntz is one of 19 Fijian Drua players in the current squad, with that group carrying momentum into the national team from Super Rugby Pacific. Having won just twice in their maiden season in 2022, the Drua had six victories this year and earned a place in the play-offs.
Wins over the Crusaders, Rebels, Hurricanes, and Reds in Fiji were superb, while the Drua also won both clashes against Moana Pasifika. The Drua squad is entirely made up of Fijian players and they play their home games in either Lautoka or Suva on Fijian soil, so there is no doubt the team has been massive for the development of Fijian rugby.
How soon that translates into Fiji being a stronger proposition at international level remains to be seen. They lost head coach Vern Cotter in February of this year when he resigned for personal reasons, a big blow so close to the World Cup. Former Fiji and Saracens lock Simon Raiwalui took over and his coaching team includes ex-Clermont and Leicester back Seremaia Bai, as well as ex-All Black Darryl Gibson, and former Test referee Glen Jackson.
With blockbusting backs like Tuisova, Semi Radradra, and Waisea Nayacalevu, as well as punchy forwards like Peceli Yato, Levani Botia, and Sam Matavesi, the Fijians have talent and physicality.
The same is true of Georgia, whose brilliant rise we wrote about recently. Their U20s had wins over Italy and Argentina recently, their Black Lion club will be in the Challenge Cup next season, and the Lelos have beaten Wales and Italy in the past year. With power up front and fullback sensation Davit Niniashvili in their backline, they have danger written all over them for Australia and the Welsh.
Meanwhile, Pool D of this World Cup is tricky to predict. England, Japan, and Argentina are joined by Samoa and Chile in a potentially dramatic group.
England had another bad Six Nations this year and though they will hope to be better after a full pre-season under Steve Borthwick, the others in Pool D will clearly have plans to cause them more pain.
The Argentinians are capable of producing huge performances and while consistency has eluded them, the wily Michael Cheika and his sidekick Felipe Contepomi should have them well-primed for a good tilt at the knock-out stages.
They were poor against New Zealand a few weeks ago but their win away to Australia in round two of the Rugby Championship showed their promise. This weekend’s visit to South Africa will help to give us a more complete picture, but they beat England and New Zealand last year. Write them off at your peril.
Japan were the stars of the World Cup last time and have the same duo of Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown in charge, with John Mitchell now there as defence specialist, while there are lots of familiar faces in the playing squad too. Japan’s League One competition is steadily improving, but it feels like the Brave Blossoms have hovered rather than kicked on since 2019. The pandemic certainly didn’t help.
Their build-up to this one hasn’t started well, with two defeats to the All Blacks XV followed by a narrow loss to Samoa on Japanese soil last weekend. A red card for back row Michael Leitch for a high tackle in the 30th minute was costly.
This World Cup is crucial for Japan as they bid to copperfasten a place as one of two invitational teams in the new Nations Championship competition that kicks off in 2026, although that’s true of all the countries vying for those spots.
Japan will hope for an improvement against Tonga this weekend, while they’ll also take on Fiji and Italy next month before the World Cup.
Samoa’s confidence will have been boosted by last weekend’s result in Sapporo and they’re certainly a team to watch in the World Cup. Headed up by Seilala Mapusua, their coaching ticket of Leinster’s Andrew Goodman, Tom Coventry, Tana Umaga, Mahonri Schwalger, and Tusi Pisi is impressive.
Leinster tighthead Michael Ala’alatoa is the captain, while the squad has been bolstered by additions like ex-All Blacks Lima Sopoaga, Steven Luatua, and Charlie Faumuina, former Wallaby Christian Leali’ifano, and ex-USA tighthead Titi Lamositele.
With other quality operators like La Rochelle centre UJ Seuteni, Lyon back row Jordan Taufua, and Saracens sensation Theo McFarland in the mix, it’s an excellent Samoan squad.
Chile’s journey to the World Cup rightly captured the imagination of rugby fans everywhere and they will have great support in their first-ever appearance at the competition. Given that they’re currently the lowest-ranked team in the World Cup in 22, if they can pull off a win, it would be the shock of all shocks.
The two heavyweights in Pool A are hosts France and New Zealand, with Italy tasked with slowing them down.
A first-ever win over Australia last autumn gave Italy a taste of knocking over one of the game’s traditional powers and they played some excellent rugby in this year’s Six Nations, but still lost all five games. Beating the French or Kiwis would be their greatest achievement in the sport.
Uruguay and Namibia make up Pool A and they’ll target an Italian scalp. The majority of the Uruguayan squad also plays for the Peñarol team that claimed the Super Rugby Americas title last month, so their cohesion should help while they’re topped up by some France-based stars including the outstanding Castres scrum-half Santiago Arata.
Last time around, Esteban Meneses’ side built everything around shocking Fiji in their opening game, so it makes sense if they have targeted their Italy clash on 20 September in this tournament.
This is Namibia’s seventh World Cup but they have yet to win a game, coming agonisingly close against Georgia in 2019. The Welwitschias are coached by former Springboks boss Allister Coetzee while they were boosted last year by the addition of Melbourne Rebels back row Richard Hardwick after he was told he wasn’t in Australia’s plans.
And what of Pool B, which includes Ireland? It’s hard to know exactly how to position Scotland, currently ranked fifth in the world but generally seen as being behind Ireland and the Springboks in the battle for quarter-finals spots.
Gregor Townsend’s men open their pool campaign against the Boks and then conclude it by taking on Ireland in what could be a high-stakes contest in Paris on 7 October. It might not be that shocking if the Scots qualified from the pool, but it would upset many predictions.
Tonga are another side we have covered recently and their build-up continues this weekend against Japan. Boosted by the additions of high-quality players like the influential Charles Piutau, Israel Folau, Adam Coleman, Malakai Fekitoa, Lopeti Timani, Vaea Fifita, Pita Ahki, George Moala, and Augustine Pulu, it’s certainly an impressive Tongan squad.
Whether it all comes together for the World Cup remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt they are a threat worth respecting.
Romania are the minnows here. They beat Chile last autumn before losing to Uruguay and Tonga, with head coach Andy Robinson resigning in the wake of that campaign. Eugen Apjok, a former player for the Oaks, has stepped up but has a tough job on his hands.
Warm-up games against the US, Georgia, and Italy next month will tell us more about what to expect from a squad that includes legendary captain Mihai Macovei, who is now a centurion. Romania have won six games at previous World Cups and they’ll likely see the Tonga clash as their best bet this time.
With just over a month until the tournament kicks off, 13 of the 20 competing nations are in action this weekend and some of the underdogs are building momentum.
Pogbaaaaaaaaa
A completely different side to what was seen under José. Now the players can truly express themselves! Even if Ole says they haven’t really changed the tactics, as long as they play like this, tactics are just fine with me.
@Gavin Mitchell: the pantomime villain is gone, United should give ole a 5 year contract
@Gavin Mitchell: Im actually sitting watching Man United and willing them to attack and score another goal again.. probably not now that Bailey is sent off.
Man United are on an upward trajectory, Solksjaer has told them to enjoy themselves 1000 times by now, and the rest is plain sailing
@Eamo world class Dunphy: I dare to say, after 3 wins against Cardiff, Huddersfield and soon to be Bournemouth, the good times are back, baby
@Eamo world class Dunphy: after seeing some of the team’s spurs and city have dropped points to recently then I would agree, 3 very good results. Considering where United were at prior to that
Paul Pogba, ballon d’or 2019
@Eamo world class Dunphy: trolling
@Anthony: eamo never trolls baby
The new kid… Pogba? He’s pretty good!
When United come up against a proper team then we can judge them, people are saying spurs will destroy them but sure look at what wolves did yesterday to spurs.
Still needs some work on the defence though but the style of football is completely different under Ole. Amazing how much Jose was holding them back. Hopefully the don’t down tools again. Aiming for top 4 while Liverpool chase the title is brutal.
I wonder who will win?
@Ross Fehily: utd will clip them
God Pogba and Rashford have been immense. I have to say Pogba is really showing his class now. Still has a bit to go to justify his price tag but he’s going the right way about it. Naturally any Man U haters will not agree, that’s to be expected lol
Deserved goal from Bournmouth had 3 good chances, took one.
Utd poor from corners all year, centrebacks needed in January.
Pogba brilliant but showing how much he held back under Jose.
If United can maintain this positivity, I can see them nipping 4th. And with transfer windows they can clear out the average players and go big. Alderwerald, Koulebale, maybe bid for Varane? And replace Matic with a younger faster similar style player.
@Finn Faulkner: dead on.
@Finn Faulkner: a solid CB and a world class CM is all the tinkering needed.. and a permanent manager, and DDG to sign a new contract!! Great work so far, long road yet.
Lidelof, Shaw, Young, not good enough for utd.
@Martin McKenna: they’re all great under ole. Jose was mean to them. They stopped playing under Jose cos he wasn’t nice to them. They’re great players now
@Eamo world class Dunphy: Lindelof an accident waiting to happen.
@Martin McKenna: I think Shaw is good enough for United and Young has been a solid player for the last 6 years. I think he’s worth keeping around as he’s a decent squad player. Lindelof has been very poor but like the rest of the team he looks a different player since Mourinho left.
@Martin McKenna: I always thought of Young as a leader. Seems to be no nonsense kind of guy
@Robert O Farrell: agree in the main but would love a top centreback, look at the difference van dyke made for pool.
Think utd need certainty at the back for next season to contend and definitely if Europe is on the horizon.
@Bluey: He got a new contract last season despite being nowhere near the starting XI. Apparently Jose didn’t want to lose his influence in the dressing room
@Virgil Van Dijk: when you win silverware then you can talk !!
@Martin McKenna: people been saying that Lindelof is an accident waiting to happen but he is Uniteds best defender. He’s got very good positional sense
WHy can’t I see any comments on this page ?
@Chris Cantwell: very philosophical question, I also “can’t see any comments”