Paul Fennessy

GARETH SOUTHGATE has a big decision to make ahead of Saturday’s crucial World Cup quarter-final with France.

In the round-of-16 3-0 win over Senegal, the manager started — as he has throughout this World Cup — with a four-man defence.

The first 38 minutes, in which the Africans at times looked like the better team, were unconvincing.

However, from that point onwards, England took control of the game, with their ruthless efficiency on the counter-attack ending the game as a contest long before the final whistle.

Beating the reigning African champions with relative ease ultimately was no mean feat, and many people in Southgate’s position would be tempted to change nothing for this weekend’s match, yet recent history suggests the former Aston Villa defender is likely to make at least one alteration to his starting XI.

At the 2018 World Cup, Southgate started every game with a three-man defence as England made it all the way to the semi-finals of the tournament for the first time since 1990.

At Euro 2020, he varied this approach somewhat. For all the games England were expecting to dominate possession, they played a four-man defence — so it was the case for the group stage matches, plus the defeats of Ukraine and Denmark in the knockout stages.

But against the bigger nations, namely the matches at the Euros versus Germany and Italy, Southgate opted for a three-man defence.

He also went with three at the back in England’s pre-World Cup Nations League encounter against Germany — the 3-3 draw was their last game together before travelling to Qatar — but they have started with a four-man defence without exception at the tournament proper so far.

Yet this weekend is England’s first true test in Qatar and the only occasion so far where you could legitimately argue that the opponents have greater quality at their disposal.

Therefore, it is that rare example where it would actually be a surprise if the manager sticks with a winning formula and does not make any alterations to the Senegal game.

If he does go with three at the back, then the player expected to be dropped is Jordan Henderson.

It would be a little harsh on the Liverpool star, who scored the opening goal in the Senegal win, but he looks more likely to make way than Declan Rice or Jude Bellingham. The latter two have started every World Cup match so far, while Henderson has played just twice from the outset at the tournament, so Southgate ostensibly perceives the 32-year-old as the most dispensable of the midfield trio.

There is also the question of who plays in the three-man defence, assuming they go down that route. Harry Maguire and John Stones will almost certainly keep their places while drafting in Eric Dier, who made a substitute appearance versus the Senegalese, is also an option.

The Tottenham star did start back in September in that Germany game, however, he has not been in great form at club level of late, so Southgate may be tempted to keep intact the more tried-and-trusted back three, who lined out in the Euros final, of Walker, Stones and Maguire.

In addition, with Kylian Mbappe’s pace widely regarded as France’s greatest asset, the speedy Walker rather than Dier is surely the player in England’s defence most equipped to deal with that significant threat. 

The latter decision would leave room for Newcastle’s Kieran Tripper, who unlike Dier has been in excellent form at club level, to regain his starting spot.

The identity of the front three is not entirely clear-cut either. Raheem Sterling is likely to be available again, after missing the Senegal clash, and Southgate has generally picked the Chelsea star for the big games of his reign.

Yet Phil Foden, Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka all performed excellently in the Senegal encounter, so breaking up that attacking trio would be a controversial call.

Meanwhile, Sterling’s lack of training and preparation for this match will not have done him any favours either, so it might well be a rare instance under this management of the 28-year-old having to settle for the role of impact sub.

But whatever happens, Saturday is one of the most important games of Southgate’s managerial career.

Although his contract is not up until 2024, it’s not inconceivable that it turns out to be his last match in charge should they lose and he opts to walk away from the job following six largely successful years in charge.

If that proves to be the case, he is in danger of being remembered essentially as football’s equivalent of Tim Henman — impressive, but not quite great enough to win some meaningful silverware, while the old arguments about the coach’s supposedly misguided conservatism will inevitably resurface.

A win, by contrast, would help consolidate Southgate’s reputation as perhaps England’s greatest-ever manager alongside 1966 World Cup winner Alf Ramsey.

Either way, the Three Lions boss is likely to stick with the principles that have served him well up to this point, which would mean reverting to three at the back against a French side that have looked in formidable form of late and who will fancy their chances of becoming the first side to retain the illustrious trophy since Brazil in 1962

Predicted England starting XI v France (5-3-2): Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire; Trippier, Shaw; Rice, Bellingham; Saka, Foden; Kane.

For the latest news coverage on the Fifa World Cup Qatar 2022, see here >