IN THE NATIONAL football league, 12 different possibilities exist for promotion and relegation.
After the weekend’s round of fixtures, just five of those changes were decided, which means that the final round of the league will provide us with a cliff-hanger finish.
Without further ado, let us explain the permutation across the coming weekend.
Division 1
Round 7 – Sunday, 24 March
Derry V Roscommon
Dublin V Tyrone
Kerry V Galway
Monaghan V Mayo
The only way Derry can be denied a league final place is if they lose to Roscommon, and Dublin and Kerry both win, thereby all three finishing on 10 points. But it would also be dependent on Kerry winning by more than 14 points.
Given that Derry are not out in Ulster until 20 April, they should put out a fairly strong team to ensure a league final. After that, Kerry hope for Tyrone to nick a draw or more against Dublin and for them to beat Galway.
At the bottom of the table, Monaghan are already gone. Roscommon need to beat Derry and hope Galway are beaten by Kerry. After that, their head to head was a draw so Roscommon could survive and Galway would be relegated on score difference.
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Division 2
Round 7 – Saturday, 23 March
Cavan V Fermanagh
Cork V Armagh
Donegal V Meath
Kildare V Louth
At the top of the table, Armagh and Donegal are already promoted. The only points they have dropped is the time they drew against each other.
At the other end of the table Kildare’s relegation was confirmed last weekend with defeat to Donegal, without a single point gleaned from six games.
The two teams battling to avoid the drop are Louth – on four points and Fermanagh on three. Louth walloped Fermanagh on Saturday.
Fermanagh need to go to Kingspan Breffni this Saturday and beat Cavan. Their neighbours were hammered by Armagh last weekend so they could either look for a reaction, or else spin the team around given that their Ulster campaign begins on 7 April, against Monaghan.
Louth manager Ger Brennan. Andrew Paton / INPHO
Andrew Paton / INPHO / INPHO
They also need Louth to be beaten by a Kildare side who have their confidence in their kitbags. Louth’s survival seems the safe bet.
Division 3
Round 7 – Sunday, 24 March
Antrim V Wicklow
Sligo V Westmeath
Down V Clare
Offaly V Limerick
Only one slot has been sorted out so far, that of Limerick who suffer relegation for the second year in a row.
If there is one game to go to on Sunday, it is in the Marshes in Newry, where Clare come to face Down. A draw will do for Down, but a win for Clare guarantees their return to Division 2 where they had been from 2016 to last year’s relegation.
The other promotion slot is up to Westmeath, who need to get a point away to Sligo if Down are beaten. If they finish level with Down on points, their heads-to-head was a draw, and Down’s enormous points difference would send them up.
At the bottom, Antrim, Offaly and Wicklow are all in danger of joining Limerick through the trap door. Antrim host Oisín McConville’s Wicklow and a win for the guests would keep them up.
Offaly need to beat Limerick, but if they don’t, they will be safe as long as Wicklow do not beat Antrim.
Division 4
Round 7 – Sunday, 24 March
Carlow V London
Leitrim V Tipperary
Waterford V Laois
Wexford V Longford
Leitrim’s win over Laois at the weekend blew the race for promotion wide open.
Laois – on ten points – should still go up, given they have Waterford in the final game and the Deise are coming off the back of a defeat to London.
But after that, Wexford, Longford, Leitrim all harbour hopes and are locked on eight points.
The game to look out for here is the meeting of Wexford and Longford. Points will happen here no matter what, and Leitrim have Tipperary at home.
On the head to heads, Leitrim have an advantage over Wexford, but Longford won their game against Leitrim.
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Explainer - Here's what's at stake in the final round of the football league
IN THE NATIONAL football league, 12 different possibilities exist for promotion and relegation.
After the weekend’s round of fixtures, just five of those changes were decided, which means that the final round of the league will provide us with a cliff-hanger finish.
Without further ado, let us explain the permutation across the coming weekend.
Division 1
Round 7 – Sunday, 24 March
The only way Derry can be denied a league final place is if they lose to Roscommon, and Dublin and Kerry both win, thereby all three finishing on 10 points. But it would also be dependent on Kerry winning by more than 14 points.
Given that Derry are not out in Ulster until 20 April, they should put out a fairly strong team to ensure a league final. After that, Kerry hope for Tyrone to nick a draw or more against Dublin and for them to beat Galway.
At the bottom of the table, Monaghan are already gone. Roscommon need to beat Derry and hope Galway are beaten by Kerry. After that, their head to head was a draw so Roscommon could survive and Galway would be relegated on score difference.
Division 2
Round 7 – Saturday, 23 March
At the top of the table, Armagh and Donegal are already promoted. The only points they have dropped is the time they drew against each other.
At the other end of the table Kildare’s relegation was confirmed last weekend with defeat to Donegal, without a single point gleaned from six games.
The two teams battling to avoid the drop are Louth – on four points and Fermanagh on three. Louth walloped Fermanagh on Saturday.
Fermanagh need to go to Kingspan Breffni this Saturday and beat Cavan. Their neighbours were hammered by Armagh last weekend so they could either look for a reaction, or else spin the team around given that their Ulster campaign begins on 7 April, against Monaghan.
They also need Louth to be beaten by a Kildare side who have their confidence in their kitbags. Louth’s survival seems the safe bet.
Division 3
Round 7 – Sunday, 24 March
Only one slot has been sorted out so far, that of Limerick who suffer relegation for the second year in a row.
If there is one game to go to on Sunday, it is in the Marshes in Newry, where Clare come to face Down. A draw will do for Down, but a win for Clare guarantees their return to Division 2 where they had been from 2016 to last year’s relegation.
The other promotion slot is up to Westmeath, who need to get a point away to Sligo if Down are beaten. If they finish level with Down on points, their heads-to-head was a draw, and Down’s enormous points difference would send them up.
At the bottom, Antrim, Offaly and Wicklow are all in danger of joining Limerick through the trap door. Antrim host Oisín McConville’s Wicklow and a win for the guests would keep them up.
Offaly need to beat Limerick, but if they don’t, they will be safe as long as Wicklow do not beat Antrim.
Division 4
Round 7 – Sunday, 24 March
Leitrim’s win over Laois at the weekend blew the race for promotion wide open.
Laois – on ten points – should still go up, given they have Waterford in the final game and the Deise are coming off the back of a defeat to London.
But after that, Wexford, Longford, Leitrim all harbour hopes and are locked on eight points.
The game to look out for here is the meeting of Wexford and Longford. Points will happen here no matter what, and Leitrim have Tipperary at home.
On the head to heads, Leitrim have an advantage over Wexford, but Longford won their game against Leitrim.
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Permutations ups and downs