WHATEVER HAPPENS between now and the end of the season, Pep Guardiola’s legacy at Man City is secure.
A win against Tottenham this evening will leave the Etihad outfit on the brink of securing a sixth title in seven seasons.
While the 115 charges currently hanging over City have cast a shadow over their recent success, as it stands, it will be remembered as the era in which they dominated English football.
A triumph this year would make Guardiola’s side the first men’s senior team in English football history to win four successive league trophies.
While many talented individuals deserve credit for this success on and off the pitch, few would deny that bringing the 53-year-old coach to the club in 2016 was the most important signing.
The Catalan coach’s impact has been unprecedented, as it must be said are the riches City have enjoyed and the unusual phenomenon of being backed by a nation state.
If Guardiola does claim title number six, it will make him the joint second most successful manager in English football history, alongside Liverpool icon Bob Paisley and Aston Villa’s George Ramsay, who won his first league in 1894 and last in 1910.
The Catalan coach remains well adrift of Alex Ferguson’s 13 titles, but the Scottish coach took much longer to attain such dominance.
Guardiola has won five titles in seven seasons. By contrast, Ferguson’s first title came in his seventh season.
Yet it is almost impossible to imagine the City boss emulating the Scottish icon’s longevity — he needs 18 more years to do so.
It is already by far Guardiola’s longest spell at one club. This summer will be his eighth anniversary at the helm, compared to four years at Barcelona and three at Bayern Munich.
Footballing nemesis Jurgen Klopp cited fatigue for his shock announcement last January that he would step down from managing Liverpool after nearly nine years.
And there is no doubt the mental and physical toll of managing an elite club is substantial.
Ferguson’s 26 years at Man United were the exception rather than the rule.
Bill Shankly was 15 years at Liverpool and Bob Paisley like Klopp, managed the club for nine seasons.
Brian Clough’s longest spell was 18 years at Nottingham Forest, though he only won one league title in that period and they were far from an elite club by its culmination, as he oversaw their relegation from the top flight.
Similarly, Matt Busby had a Ferguson-esque 24 years at Man United. Nonetheless, patience was more commonplace back then as the Scot won five league titles (as many as Guardiola has) in that period.
Beyond English football, some of the greats had even shorter managerial lifespans — Rinus Michels’ longest spell was six years at Ajax, Johan Cruyff was eight years at Barcelona, Arrigo Sacchi was four years during Milan’s golden period, Helenio Herrera is best remembered for eight years at Inter and Ernst Happel, despite being widely being regarded as one of the sport’s greatest ever managers, only exceeded four years once, at the beginning of his coaching career, amid a seven-year stint at Dutch side, ADO Den Haag.
Guardiola is as intense and successful as any of those great coaches, so it’s natural to wonder how long he can keep operating at such a high level without a break.
Perhaps the more pertinent question: what is there left for him to achieve at City, especially if he guides them to a league and cup double this year?
It is tempting to suggest it will never again get any better than last year’s treble when Pep finally guided the English side to Champions League glory in addition to the FA Cup and Premier League.
Given how many honours City have racked up, it is easy to forget that it wasn’t even his first treble with the English club, as they won all three domestic trophies during the 2018-19 season.
He has won four League Cups in total and hopes to claim his third FA Cup this season.
A double success would make it 14 major trophies since Guardiola moved to England. City had won 14 in their history before his arrival — a further testament to his transformative effect on the club and English football writ large.
So the perennial winners’ rivals will certainly be glad to see the back of Guardiola whenever he does depart.
Could it even be the end of this season, particularly if City end on a high with two trophies?
It’s unlikely, given that Guardiola’s current contract does not expire until the summer of 2025, but then he is no stranger to shock announcements.
His decision to leave Barcelona in 2012 was a major surprise, as he became the club’s most successful manager in four years. Guardiola cited tiredness owing to the emotional and physical strain of managing such a big club as the main reason for his decision.
Former City player and current club ambassador Joleon Lescott is among those who believe an exit may take place as soon as this summer.
“Potentially it could happen because you don’t know how draining this is,” he told TNT Sport.
“He makes teams go out there, but the consistency and the work ethic, he as an individual has to put in, the motivation he has to give to his players every day, not just for training but for every game.
“It must be tiring so if at the end of it and he has done four in a row, he may recognise it and think ‘this is me’. That wouldn’t surprise me. I would have been more confident saying that if it was another double treble.”
That said, as recently as November, he hinted he could extend his stay at Man City.
“I have energy. I’m not going to answer,” he told reporters. “One year and a half is a lot of time in football. I arrived here with long hair and look what happened.”
City fans might be optimistic because wherever Guardiola goes next, assuming he continues his managerial career, will feel like a step-down.
Though Real Madrid and Dortmund will contest this year’s Champions League final, many critics would argue City remain the best team in Europe, with the greatest resources and widely regarded as the most attractive destination for the world’s best players.
There are also few clubs better set up for Guardiola, with his former Barcelona colleagues, CEO Ferran Soriano and Director of Football Txiki Begiristain pulling the strings behind the scenes.
Much could also depend on the outcome of those 115 charges.
Whether Guardiola is even at the club by the time a decision is reached is uncertain — a report in the Manchester Evening News has suggested the verdict could coincide with the end of his contract in the summer of 2025. But the manager in the past has suggested a severe punishment would only intensify his loyalty to the club.
“I will not consider my future [if] it depends on being here [Premier League] or being in League One,” he told reporters last November. “There is more chance to stay if we are in League One than if we were in the Champions League.”