WILL LEICESTER CITY’S draw with West Ham last Sunday be remembered as a precious point on the way to a fairytale Premier League title, or the beginning of a spectacular and heartbreaking collapse? You can make a case either way: Leicester have done plenty so far to suggest they can finish the job, but on the other hand their story may still prove too good to be true.
Will they collapse?
There’s been a lot of it about lately. Jordan Spieth, Barcelona, Dortmund. And the sporting collapse is nothing new: Devon Loch, Newcastle United 1995-96, Jana Novotna. Sometimes it unfolds over weeks, sometimes, as with Spieth, over twenty sickening minutes. But what actually happens when a team or individual collapses, and what does it mean for Leicester?
Castles made of sand
It’s easy to be wise after the event, and especially so after a collapse. But sometimes runaway leaders can be beneficiaries of one stellar quality that had been masking fatal weaknesses.
Manu Fernandez
Manu Fernandez
Just a few short weeks ago, to have suggested that Barcelona were overly dependent on Messi, Neymar and Suarez was a moot point. The likelihood of all three superstars malfunctioning at the same time seemed pretty low. But then a fifteen day period this month saw them exit the Champions League to Atletico Madrid and give up a nine point lead to the same opposition in La Liga.
In the six games in question, Suarez scored twice, Messi once and Neymar a single penalty. In Barcelona’s 50 previous games this season they had contributed 106 goals. Whether fatigue or simple loss of form blunted the celebrated attack, it became quickly apparent that MSN had been covering for a defence that yields too many chances and a squad that is shallow in depth.
In Leicester’s favour is the fact that they appear a well balanced unit, within the limitations of their squad. At different times this season either their resolute rearguard, or the creativity of Riyad Mahrez, or the goals and running of Jamie Vardy has spearheaded their challenge. The absence of the latter – for the first time in a league match this season – will test the foundations elsewhere.
Regression to the mean
When is a collapse not really a collapse? In some cases a runaway leader gets in front by massively outperforming their normal capabilities, and what appears like a spectacular crash is simply them returning to their usual level.
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Rui Vieira / PA Archive/Press Association Images
Rui Vieira / PA Archive/Press Association Images / PA Archive/Press Association Images
Were Newcastle really 12 points a better team than Manchester United in late January 1996? Or had a massive dose of Keegan’s Patented Enthusiasm Elixir propelled them far beyond where they should have been? Did Tom Watson really throw away the 2009 Open Championship, or did he just start playing like a 59-year-old man might be expected to, but at rather the wrong moment?
The suspicion that Leicester might, in statistical jargon, ‘regress to the mean’ has hung over them all season. Could Vardy, 29-years-old and with 5 goals to his name last season, keep scoring? Would their journeymen centre-halves continue playing like less handsome versions of Cannavaro and Nesta? Would players like Drinkwater, Marc Albrighton and Danny Simpson keep defying all logical expectations based on their careers to date?
Rui Vieira / AP/Press Association Images
Rui Vieira / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
It may be that it has already started. The recent run of scratchy, gutsy wins might be the stuff of champions, but may also have been a team regressing, ever so slightly, to where they should really be.
The momentum switch
The subject of collapses came up on Off The Ball’s Saturday Panel last week, on which I was a guest along with former Dublin forward Mossy Quinn and ex-Leinster man Kevin McLaughlin. Both were involved in famous comebacks: Mossy on the wrong side in the 2006 Dublin v Mayo All-Ireland semi-final, Kevin on the winning team in the 2011 Heineken Cup final.
Both pointed to key moments. For Mossy it was Andy Moran’s goal that got Mayo back into the game; for Kevin it was Jonny Sexton’s second try, rather than his famous half-time speech, that stands out. “You just had to look at the Northampton players and you knew we had it, their heads were down and they were doubting themselves so badly.” On both occasions previously dominant teams had found themselves suddenly, and irreversibly collapsing.
Mike Egerton / PA Wire/Press Association Images
Mike Egerton / PA Wire/Press Association Images / PA Wire/Press Association Images
It’s much easier to pinpoint moments when a collapse starts within individual matches or events, rather than season-long championships. But in both cases a team or player can naturally look to protect what they have, rather than pushing for home. Then comes the momentum switch.
By stopping what got you there in the first place, you hand the opportunity to the opposition to come back at you. Leicester have seized up a little in recent weeks, playing with less of the abandon of earlier in the season. Whether this is due to tiredness affecting their small squad, or a creeping sense of dread at what might yet be squandered, it may be the chance a rampant Tottenham need.
Which brings us to….
The hunter becomes the hunted
A collapse only really becomes a proper, gut-wrenching catastrophe when someone else is on hand to benefit.
“Buddy, it seems like we’re collapsing,” said Spieth to caddy Matt Geller as the shell-shocked pair walked off the 12th green at Augusta two weeks ago. But it’s still very possible that Spieth would have won his second Masters title regardless had Danny Willett not grasped the opportunity handed to him.
Chris Carlson
Chris Carlson
Willett’s tee shot and birdie putt at the 16th were the actions of a man seizing the moment; Spieth’s collapse was only completed by Willett’s reach for glory. Statistical website Fivethirtyeight.com calculated that Willett had gained 5.7 strokes against the field average in his final round, which is the 8th best final round by a Masters winner since 1958.
On the other hand there’s Blackburn Rovers’ 1994-95 title-winners. Just how close they came to blowing their shot at posterity matters little now. But a lead that had stood at six points with five games remaining would have been overturned on the final day had their rivals Manchester United managed to win away at West Ham, while Rovers were losing at Liverpool. Instead, United drew. Thanks to United, it’s the famous sporting collapse that never was.
One of the arguments for Leicester City as potential champions had been the notion that none of their so-called rivals would be able to muster up a challenge worthy of the name. This has been proven true of Manchester City and Arsenal, two currently muddled and directionless squads. But suddenly Tottenham look every inch champions.
Nigel French
Nigel French
Mauricio Pochettino’s side must cope with the inconvenience of playing after Leicester in their next three games, and will surely not find all opposition as compliant as beach-ready Stoke were on Monday night.
But right now it feels like the momentum has switched to them; and if the leaders aren’t made of the right stuff, or if they are dropping to some sort of normal level, or if they psychologically seize up, then the Leicester collapse may well be about to happen.
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What defines a collapse and can Leicester do enough to avoid the notoriety it brings?
WILL LEICESTER CITY’S draw with West Ham last Sunday be remembered as a precious point on the way to a fairytale Premier League title, or the beginning of a spectacular and heartbreaking collapse? You can make a case either way: Leicester have done plenty so far to suggest they can finish the job, but on the other hand their story may still prove too good to be true.
Will they collapse?
There’s been a lot of it about lately. Jordan Spieth, Barcelona, Dortmund. And the sporting collapse is nothing new: Devon Loch, Newcastle United 1995-96, Jana Novotna. Sometimes it unfolds over weeks, sometimes, as with Spieth, over twenty sickening minutes. But what actually happens when a team or individual collapses, and what does it mean for Leicester?
Castles made of sand
It’s easy to be wise after the event, and especially so after a collapse. But sometimes runaway leaders can be beneficiaries of one stellar quality that had been masking fatal weaknesses.
Just a few short weeks ago, to have suggested that Barcelona were overly dependent on Messi, Neymar and Suarez was a moot point. The likelihood of all three superstars malfunctioning at the same time seemed pretty low. But then a fifteen day period this month saw them exit the Champions League to Atletico Madrid and give up a nine point lead to the same opposition in La Liga.
In the six games in question, Suarez scored twice, Messi once and Neymar a single penalty. In Barcelona’s 50 previous games this season they had contributed 106 goals. Whether fatigue or simple loss of form blunted the celebrated attack, it became quickly apparent that MSN had been covering for a defence that yields too many chances and a squad that is shallow in depth.
In Leicester’s favour is the fact that they appear a well balanced unit, within the limitations of their squad. At different times this season either their resolute rearguard, or the creativity of Riyad Mahrez, or the goals and running of Jamie Vardy has spearheaded their challenge. The absence of the latter – for the first time in a league match this season – will test the foundations elsewhere.
Regression to the mean
When is a collapse not really a collapse? In some cases a runaway leader gets in front by massively outperforming their normal capabilities, and what appears like a spectacular crash is simply them returning to their usual level.
Were Newcastle really 12 points a better team than Manchester United in late January 1996? Or had a massive dose of Keegan’s Patented Enthusiasm Elixir propelled them far beyond where they should have been? Did Tom Watson really throw away the 2009 Open Championship, or did he just start playing like a 59-year-old man might be expected to, but at rather the wrong moment?
The suspicion that Leicester might, in statistical jargon, ‘regress to the mean’ has hung over them all season. Could Vardy, 29-years-old and with 5 goals to his name last season, keep scoring? Would their journeymen centre-halves continue playing like less handsome versions of Cannavaro and Nesta? Would players like Drinkwater, Marc Albrighton and Danny Simpson keep defying all logical expectations based on their careers to date?
It may be that it has already started. The recent run of scratchy, gutsy wins might be the stuff of champions, but may also have been a team regressing, ever so slightly, to where they should really be.
The momentum switch
The subject of collapses came up on Off The Ball’s Saturday Panel last week, on which I was a guest along with former Dublin forward Mossy Quinn and ex-Leinster man Kevin McLaughlin. Both were involved in famous comebacks: Mossy on the wrong side in the 2006 Dublin v Mayo All-Ireland semi-final, Kevin on the winning team in the 2011 Heineken Cup final.
Both pointed to key moments. For Mossy it was Andy Moran’s goal that got Mayo back into the game; for Kevin it was Jonny Sexton’s second try, rather than his famous half-time speech, that stands out. “You just had to look at the Northampton players and you knew we had it, their heads were down and they were doubting themselves so badly.” On both occasions previously dominant teams had found themselves suddenly, and irreversibly collapsing.
It’s much easier to pinpoint moments when a collapse starts within individual matches or events, rather than season-long championships. But in both cases a team or player can naturally look to protect what they have, rather than pushing for home. Then comes the momentum switch.
By stopping what got you there in the first place, you hand the opportunity to the opposition to come back at you. Leicester have seized up a little in recent weeks, playing with less of the abandon of earlier in the season. Whether this is due to tiredness affecting their small squad, or a creeping sense of dread at what might yet be squandered, it may be the chance a rampant Tottenham need.
Which brings us to….
The hunter becomes the hunted
A collapse only really becomes a proper, gut-wrenching catastrophe when someone else is on hand to benefit.
“Buddy, it seems like we’re collapsing,” said Spieth to caddy Matt Geller as the shell-shocked pair walked off the 12th green at Augusta two weeks ago. But it’s still very possible that Spieth would have won his second Masters title regardless had Danny Willett not grasped the opportunity handed to him.
Willett’s tee shot and birdie putt at the 16th were the actions of a man seizing the moment; Spieth’s collapse was only completed by Willett’s reach for glory. Statistical website Fivethirtyeight.com calculated that Willett had gained 5.7 strokes against the field average in his final round, which is the 8th best final round by a Masters winner since 1958.
On the other hand there’s Blackburn Rovers’ 1994-95 title-winners. Just how close they came to blowing their shot at posterity matters little now. But a lead that had stood at six points with five games remaining would have been overturned on the final day had their rivals Manchester United managed to win away at West Ham, while Rovers were losing at Liverpool. Instead, United drew. Thanks to United, it’s the famous sporting collapse that never was.
One of the arguments for Leicester City as potential champions had been the notion that none of their so-called rivals would be able to muster up a challenge worthy of the name. This has been proven true of Manchester City and Arsenal, two currently muddled and directionless squads. But suddenly Tottenham look every inch champions.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side must cope with the inconvenience of playing after Leicester in their next three games, and will surely not find all opposition as compliant as beach-ready Stoke were on Monday night.
But right now it feels like the momentum has switched to them; and if the leaders aren’t made of the right stuff, or if they are dropping to some sort of normal level, or if they psychologically seize up, then the Leicester collapse may well be about to happen.
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column Barclays Premier League Danny Willett Devon Loch JORDAN SPIETH Blackburn Rovers Leicester City Tommy Martin Column