THE GRAND NATIONAL looms into view and with the field whittled down to the final 40, it’s time to narrow down the selections further.

It’s the National, so the stakes need to be spread!

At the top of the Market

Tiger Roll dominates, unsurprisingly. He is as short as 7/2 in places (Betway are a standout 9/2), only a few ticks bigger than the shortest ever price winner of the race way back in 1919, Poethlyn at 11/4.

The other horses likely to go off around 10/1 or shorter are Rathvinden, Anibale Fly and Vintage Clouds. Rathvinden is the likely second favourite. He will be ridden by Ruby Walsh, should Walsh oblige he will join an elite band of riders to have won three Grand Nationals since 1900. The only other two to do it are Brian Fletcher, who won on Red Rum twice and Jack Anthony whose last win was in 1920.

Anibale Fly is top weight and therefore the best horse in the race, he has placed in the last two Gold Cups, an rather unbelievably given the investment he puts in the game, would only be a second winner in the race for JP McManus. The rain falling will not hinder him in any way and if he takes a more direct route than last year, he will get in the frame.

Off the three Rathvinden makes the most appeal given his age and the weight he has to carry, even if he has had jumping issues in the past.

The middle of the market

Middle of the market is stacked with talent and it is difficult to draw a line through too many of them, such is the in depth quality of the race. This is the real benefit of the changes made in 2012, in the past quite a few of these would have been right up near the top of the market in lesser renewals.

The chances of last year’s second-placed Pleasant Company have been well advertised in this column and he forms the second leg of this year’s spring double. Willie Mullins horse is well in against Tiger Roll on last year’s run, he’s a safe jumper who will stay and deal with the rain softened ground and he is a grand big horse who will cope with carrying more weight than last year.

Joe Farrell is the big ante post mover and thanks to a couple of defectors, makes the cut at the second from the bottom of the weights. He has a really nice profile for the race, having won a Scottish National in 2018, he’s ten years old, and has gone up seven pounds since that win.

Champion jockey Richard Johnson hopes Rock the Kasbah can break his Grand National duck; he was second in a Whitbread last year and won a decent staying handicap chase at Cheltenham in November. He is a five-time winner on soft ground and 9 is pretty much the perfect age.

Jury Duty could provide Robbie Power with a second Grand National win for Gordon Elliot, in what would be an emotionally charged win for connections. Step Back absolutely demolished Rock the Kasbah last year at Sandown but hasn’t really run well since.

The colours have already been nailed to the Pleasant Company mast here; conditions have now gone even more in his favour with the rain.

Outsiders

Of those priced around the 33/1 mark or bigger Ballyoptic could be classed as overpriced. He beat Vintage Clouds on heavy going at Wetherby as a novice then followed that up with a fourth place finish in the RSA before losing out by the narrowest of margins in the Scottish National. So those who are tempted to take shorter prices about the likes of Joe Farrell or Vintage Clouds should take a look at Ballyoptic.

Ultragold is getting on but can contend at a big price, he didn’t appear to love the Cross Country experience at Cheltenham and many of the Tizzard horses seemed to be a little out of form at the Festival. He has proven form over the fences having won the Topham in 2018.

General Principle won the Irish Grand National, which is a recognised trial but the moral winner in Fairyhouse that day was Folsom Blue. Luke Dempsey has a rare ride for Gordon Elliot, if it’s soft either could plug on to place.

Gordon Elliot has 11 runners in the race; his usual first choice jockey is Jack Kennedy. He rides Dounikos at a big price. He proved his bottomless stamina at Punchestown in the trial by staying on strongest of all. At a huge price he could run into a place, another who will handle the slowing ground.