New York Giants @ New England Patriots

Super Bowl XLVI

Kick off: 11.30pm (Irish time)

Absence makes the heart grow fond.

In Eli Manning’s case, the two-week break between the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl has seen him rise from being ‘maybe’ an elite quarterback to many fans and analysts claiming he’s not only a better QB than his brother Peyton but better than the man he’ll face on Sunday, Tom Brady.

This is the same Eli Manning that went 9-7 during the regular season (compared to the Patriots 13-3) and lost four games in a row in November.

So, what gives?

Well, for a start, there’s no doubt that Eli Manning is a clutch player, leading no less than 20 fourth-quarter comebacks in his career and 24 game winning drives. However, Brady has 24 fourth quarter comebacks of his own and has led 34 game winning drives so he’s equally unlikely to wilt under pressure.

In the play-offs, Manning is exceptional, posting a 7-3 record with 16 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions. Brady, who won his first 10 playoff games, has a 16-5 record in the post-season with 38 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.

Another argument in favour of Eli is that he has much better receiving options than Brady. Hard to argue with that when you look at the likes of Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks, especially when you pair them up with the Patriots 31st ranked pass defence.

That said, the Giants own pass defence didn’t exactly set the world on fire this year, giving up over 255 yards per game, placing them just 29th overall. You can’t imagine Brady can be as bad as he was against the Ravens again, and he’s sure to find at least one receiver in single coverage on every play. Given time, he will exploit any mismatches.

Patience

But will he get the time when one of the biggest advantages the Giants have is their much vaunted pass rush. It’s very difficult to argue with 48 sacks in the regular season, complimented by nine more in the playoffs.

However, they are not nearly as effective when facing an offence in a two tight end formation, with only four sacks all year. That’s a sack rate of just 2.8%, the second lowest in the league.

To make things worse, the Patriots use two tight ends on over 70% of their plays and when these two met in week nine, the Giants only had one sack when the Pats had both tight ends on the field.

But will the Pats field two tight ends? Put simply, Gronkowski has to play. According to computer simulations – and I don’t mean me on Madden 12 – the Pats have a 61% chance of winning if The Gronk takes the field, dropping to 51% if he doesn’t.

However, the Patriots do have one more weapon up their sleeve regardless of Gronkowski’s status, their hurry up offence. With so much emphasis on Brady’s passing ability, the two-time Super Bowl MVP has often gone no huddle this season to establish the Pats run game.

In the AFC Championship game against Baltimore, eight of the Patriots’ 25 first downs game on the ground. Against Denver the week before, nine of 31 came via the running game. Brady could hand the ball off because the obvious reaction to an offence going no huddle is for the defence to bring in extra defensive backs in a ‘Nickel’ package but this leaves you open to a power running game.

Having said all that, the Giants could very well win this game. Victor Cruz will probably target Julian Edelman, the Patriots receiver who doubles as a defensive back. The Cruz missile is hard enough to control when DB is your preferred position so it’ll be difficult to see a receiver contain him.

If the Giants front four can make plays, Brady will struggle. Under pressure his completion rate is just 41% and his total quarterback rating drops to 7.5 out of 100. Given time and space, those numbers jump to 70% and 86.2 respectively.

Also, the Giants have beaten the Patriots already this year and, of course, stopped their pursuit of perfection four years ago. If anyone knows how to beat this New England team, it’s Tom Coughlin and the New York Football Giants.

Tom Brady answers questions during a news conference yesterday.  (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

However, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are like a virus. Just when you think you’ve figured them out, they mutate into something completely different. My gut feeling, and that’s all it is, is that B&B want to win this game more than any other they’ve ever played together and will look to win it on the ground.

One thing that is certain on Sunday is that legacies aren’t at stake – Brady and Belichick are certainly Hall of Fame bound already – but pride is. Anyone can beat the Patriots once, but to lose two Super Bowls to the same team is unthinkable in Foxborough.

For the Giants, Eli Manning won’t become a better quarterback than either his brother or Brady if he wins Super Bowl XLVI. He will, however, remove any lingering questions regarding his elite status

Verdict: This will be an incredibly close contest and so much depends on how fit Rob Gronkowski is. However, if he takes the field, the Patriots will win by three points with a last minute field goal.

Steven O’Rourke is the offensive co-ordinator of Tullamore PhoenixAmerican Football Club, winners of the IAFL DV8s national title in 2010 and 2011.
Tullamore are always recruiting new players so, if you’d like to play football and not just read about it, Steven would love to hear from you.

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