WHEN THE SPRINGBOKS first unveiled their 7/1 bench split late last month in their final World Cup warm-up, they didn’t give the All Blacks time to respond.
Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber had originally named a 6/2 bench before replacement fullback Willie le Roux was withdrawn at the last minute. Instead of bringing in a different back, the Boks added a seventh forward in Kwagga Smith.
The whole thing suggested the South Africans had been plotting it for some time, quite possibly with Ireland in mind, and now we’ve had confirmation after Nienaber and Erasmus named a 7/1 bench for this weekend’s huge World Cup clash in Paris.
The starting pack of Steven Kitshoff, Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert, Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, and Jasper Wiese is world-class.
The Boks can then call on a second pack of Ox Nche, Deon Fourie, Trevor Nyakane, Jean Kleyn, RG Snyman, Marco van Staden, Kwagga Smith, and possibly du Toit as the one South African forward who goes the 80 minutes. While Malcolm Marx will be missed and Fourie has to step up at hooker, it’s imposing stuff.
The Springboks were the ones who popularised the 6/2 bench at the last World Cup but it feels like other teams will be slower to mimic the 7/1, which comes with obvious risks.
Ireland, who have generally gone for a 5/3 split under Andy Farrell, do have time to react now. They’re not due to name their matchday 23 until Thursday and it will be intriguing to see if they go for a 6/2 bench in a bid to counter the Springboks’ ploy.
The versatile Jack Crowley was up for media in Ireland camp today, suggesting he will be involved at the weekend, and his ability to play 10, 12, and 15 might also hint at Ireland strongly considering a 6/2 bench.
It would certainly allow Ireland to use plenty of the back-five quality they’ve built in their forward pack. Supplementing a front row trio of Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, and Dan Sheehan or Rob Herring with three of Iain Henderson [if he doesn't start], Joe McCarthy, Ryan Baird, and Jack Conan would give Ireland lots of ballast of their own off the bench.
It would, however, leave Ireland without the backline options they usually like to have. They’d need to have a scrum-half on the bench, so presumably Conor Murray along with Crowley, and that would mean omitting someone as good as Robbie Henshaw.
Ireland could just ignore what the Boks have done and keep going with what has worked so well for them, usually a 5/3 bench. That’s the other thing to consider – ceding to the Boks.
They love getting into opponents’ heads and making them change, worry, or at least spend time thinking about what the South Africans are doing. The traffic lights system is a good example. Sure, it might help the coaches communicate with players down on the pitch, but it also entices the opposition coaches into wasting valuable headspace wondering what exactly they’re up to.
Naming their teams on a Tuesday when they’re entitled to wait two more days is another example. It’s Erasmus and co. saying, ‘This is what’s coming, let’s see you deal with it.’
And it was hard to miss a performative element to their 7/1 bench against New Zealand. They sent on all seven of the replacement forwards at once early in the second half. Erasmus was on the touchline for that game and clearly enjoyed the whole drama of it.
It must have been a harrowing sight for a Kiwi pack that was already struggling to stay afloat. The Boks’ bench sunk them, as we discussed at the time.
When scrum-half Cobus Reinach, the only back among the replacements, was sent onto the wing that evening in London, Erasmus sat down on the bench alongside replaced wing Makazole Mapimpi and with a slight smirk on his face, turned his hands over while the camera was on him, as if to say, ‘What? He can play on the wing.’
The next time the Springboks bench popped up on screen, with seven of the starting pack sitting there, everyone seemed to be very aware the camera was on them. The whole thing felt like the Boks wanted to make as big a deal of the 7/1 as possible.
Lest it come across as complaining, we should add that all of this stuff is wildly entertaining. The Boks might not be everyone’s cup of tea but they’re a brilliant rugby team and most of the drama around them is welcome.
Most importantly, the 7/1 split worked superbly that day against New Zealand. The brilliant starting pack emptied themselves over the course of 46 minutes, and then the new pack came on and did the same. The All Blacks were demolished.
There were no backline injuries to show up the risk that’s involved. In fairness, the Boks could probably cope with one backline injury just fine this weekend.
Reinach covers the wing, starting fullback Damian Willemse can also play 10 and 12, starting wings Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse can play at fullback, while starting scrum-half Faf de Klerk could shift to out-half.
Two backline injuries is where it would become stressful. Back row Kwagga Smith would likely move into the centre and the rest of the backs would shuffle. While Smith has played international 7s and is undoubtedly agile and powerful, it would be a very demanding task. We can safely assume he has been getting training reps in midfield.
If there are three backline injuries, they’re definitely in huge trouble. The Springboks have surely done their homework and combed the data to see just how often backline injuries happen. They evidently feel it’s worth rolling the dice.
As we saw in Twickenham last month, the upside of the 7/1 is rather frightening.
Ireland knew they were facing an onslaught this weekend in Paris anyway but as they scan the horizon, they’ve seen the Springboks arrive at the crest of the hill with their awesome new weapon.
Yes