THE LONGER A winning streak goes on, the greater the blow when it ends.
Ireland have won 10 from the last 11, but instead, it feels like they’re on a one-game losing streak. Scotland aren’t the toughest opposition Joe Schmidt has faced, but Saturday will be the biggest challenge of his international career.
The levels of expectation going into the Welsh game, and the nature of the defeat, have led to disproportionate levels of gloom. Some of the players will be carrying that weight, whatever they are saying to the media. There is almost a sense that this Six Nations has no joy left to give.
Matt Willams reckons Ireland’s lack of a running game will kill their World Cup hopes (and in fairness, was saying it long before the Welsh game), Tony Ward thinks there is a case for seven or eight changes to be made, and Neil Francis feels there was an ‘air of finality’ about the loss to Wales.
Staying on a consistent high is a good feeling, but losing, then getting back up again, as the Welsh players will testify, is even more satisfying.
A number of their players consider their 2013 Championship to be more satisfying than the 2012 Grand Slam, because they somehow recovered mentally from that opening day defeat to Ireland.
This year’s Championship has been a strange one — no definitive form lines, no outstanding team, and no outstanding player. Italy have regressed, Scotland have changed style but are still getting the same old results, France are at their lowest ebb since the 1950s, England are consistent but rarely excellent, and while Wales are in form, they are still a little off their peak of 2012/13.
Last Saturday wouldn’t be far off the most disappointing day of Joe Schmidt’s coaching career, and it is the first real backward step since he took the Ireland job. Wingers screaming for the ball, messy lineouts and Sexton eating a Jonathan Davies handoff will be the lasting images of the day.
With all that considered then, a quality try-filled display against Scotland and a second successive title would be huge for this team. There isn’t abundant evidence that they will turn on the style, but there are a few reasons to believe things will at least improve in Murrayfield.
(Ireland players were left disappointed following a flawed performance against Wales)
Amidst all the mediocrity in Cardiff, Paul O’Connell showed that aggression, anticipation and the right lines of running will breach most defences. Sean Cronin proved that decisiveness and pace and a low body position almost always result in a player getting over the gain line. And Iain Henderson showed that we’ve been leaving our most destructive ball carrier on the bench.
The other plus for management is many of the problems are obvious, and can be worked on in the space of a week. The lineout will be fixed, the kicking game will tighten up, the wingers will look for more work, and, most importantly, Sexton will never again play as badly for Ireland.
Tellingly, Ireland’s best spell came when Eoin Reddan and Ian Madigan teamed up at halfback. That’s not because they are superior players to the men they replaced, it is because they were told to up the tempo, and the whole team looked better as a result.
There is obviously a place for structure and planning and exit strategies and box kicks, but Ireland clearly need to mix it up more against the best teams. This side employs several different defensive strategies, but in attack, they’ve been mainly been relying on just one.
This lack of creativity and penetration wouldn’t be so confusing if it wasn’t Joe Schmidt in charge. Ireland were top try scorers in last year’s Six Nations, and in Paris, when it really counted, they got some nicely worked scores. There was also the NZ game, South Africa last November, and his Leinster career. These last four games are the outliers on Schmidt’s CV.
Maybe he doesn’t think this team are suited to offloading and counter attacks, or maybe the players simply haven’t been taking enough responsibility on themselves, but there comes a point where being conservative is the riskier option.
Ludicrous over reaction from headline seekers, if Ireland had come out better off over the first 12 minutes they would have won …
IF………..
Forget this world cup. Schmidt’s and O’connell shuld depart A.S.A.P. and then we can pick ourselves up. And stop all this talk of what we did. Face up to it we didn’t.
Who in their right mind gave Dictator 7 green thumbs for that?
You made me chuckle there Dave – thanks!
Sometimes you have to give people a sarcastic up-vote
some men just want to watch the world burn…
Dave I am not dictating to you. So what makes you think that you can tell people who to vote for eatherway.
This is a site that let’s everybody express there opinions.
Do you think it’s just for you and people like minded , if that was the case you would be unable to vote.
Dave you don’t have to apologies for your quick response to some thing that was nothing but my opinion.
An opinion? Yes.
A daft opinion? Certainly.
This is getting out of hand. One loss to a very good Welsh team and the pundits are looking for heads to roll. What a load of shite!! I’m as disappointed as anyone but this is the same team that destroyed England a couple of weeks ago and the same team that made South Africa look average last autumn. One bad game does not make them an average team. If one or two things went a little differently last Saturday and they would still be winning the World Cup. I think Joe should have faith in his team and let them loose on Scotland. It’s not the time for wholesale change.
Depressing that the media think that the average punter cannot comprehend nuance when it comes to analysis, and instead we are constantly flip flopping between disaster and being on top of the world.
Every defeat signals the end of an era and requires a root and branch examination, whereas every win is a step closer to world domination for the next 5 years. It’s exhausting to listen to.
Hard to believe that the most balanced and informed commentary can be found on certain fan forums, and of course Murray’s excellent analysis here.
“an air of finality” – what the hell??? We pummelled Wales for 60 minutes – in Cardiff. Was Neil Francis watching a different game?
Joe is great and Ireland have done well under him, but the one concern is the lack of tries at the moment! If i hear another pundit say Zebo has the X factor I’ll scream. Ireland vs Scotland we should kick our easy 3pts and go for tries every other time.
Rugby analysis is just becoming bi-polar! We win a couple of games and we’re contenders for the World Cup then we lose one match and it’s time to re-evaluate our whole playing style. It’s a very tiresome approach to journalism. Thankfully most rugby fans can see we’re a good team that’s in good shape and we are going into the last weekend of the six nations with a chance of winning back to back championships. Not a bad position to be in.
Neil Francis watches matches on his hands and knees with his head facing backwards…
I actually clicked into this article thinking it was a joke.
COYBIG
Zebo has to go.
My mother would have more impact and she is in a wheelchair!
Zebo wasnt given the chance to have an impact. It would be interesting to see the stats on how often the ball was passed, not kicked, to the wingers. Definitely in single figures I would imagine. Dropping Zebo after that game is like the old GAA tactic of replacing a half-back when you are losing: makes it look like you are doing something but in reality doing nothing at all.
We must start Henderson and Jordi Murphy. Heislip is way over rated.
Agree 100%, Henderson needs to be 1st choice from now on – add Cronin and Madigan (at the expense of Payne) to that list also. It’s easy to argue for more changes but 3 or 4 is the right amount in my opinion.
Agree with Madigan not sure about Cronin’s darts.
Heaslip and Rob Kearney’s status as undroppable cornerstones of the team are two of Rugby’s great unexplained mysteries.
^and o’mahony. if we dropped everyone who had a bad game there would be no one left to play.
The biggest challenge is that we will have to play a high risk, high scoring game. We’ve played excellent albeit conservative rugby thus far, a different gameplan is called for if we want a good points difference. There’s going to be 3 absolutely smashing games this weekend.
People are writing Scotland off far too easily,yes they’ve lost all their games but nobody has blown them away.They’ve got a decent lineout and competitve back row with some serious runners in Hogg and Bennett in the backs.Ireland need to be focused on executing the game plan without any mistakes to put the Scots away rather than chasing the try line all day.
They’re absolute shite so are rightfully written off. Even if they outplay us for 80 minutes you can trust the Scots will find a way to lose.
An article on the indo today suggests Zebos poor performance against Wales will cost him his starting place. It’s time for Fitzy on the wing I think.
Earls is a far better option than Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is like a headless chicken most of the time.
think they are similar enough players tbh. if earls is more decisive fitz is definitely better in defence.
that’s a pretty big hyperbole statement to make and smacks of tabloid headline journalism.
you can do much better than this.
We’ve better pack and half backs. They’ve a better attacking back 3. A tightly structured game. No sloppy mistakes and we should see them off
Ireland are a good team but and I’m been honest here! We’re not good enough to win a World Cup! People are getting carried away! NZ AUS or SA would have all beaten Wales the other day! We couldn’t get the job done! 30 phases of play then anouther 20! If thats any of the southern henisphere teams its a try
If that loss did anything, it tempered our expectations. I think it’s an excellent challenge to the coaching staff and team. If we’d beaten Wales, a 1 point win or draw would suffice. Now we have a huge challenge and will get a greater measure of this team. If we pull this one off the dream is back on but remember, it’s still a dream, not an expectation.
Believe – in Joe we trust.
A sensible, level-headed analysis of the situation, as usual on the42, while the Times and the Independent’s so-called punditry is getting despairingly shallow and fickle: but, hey, what else can you expect from the “geniuses”
that had predicted Schmidt wouldn’t last six months when he took over at Leinster! Anyways, keep up the good work, Simon!
As we are playing Saturday afternoon ahead of the England game, assuming we achieve the superior points difference and win the championship when is the trophy awarded. Is it just done in the hotel that evening? (Assuming! I’m certainly not taking anything for granted)
It will be presented in the (empty) stadium I believe.
No it has not ! You need to get out more.
If Ireland win the championship I’ll be delighted. Not least to shut up the increasingly irrelevant media pundits desperately flailing around writing any old crap to hoover up clicks for their dying papers.
It is so refreshing to see that so many people have seen through the vacuous nonsense of Tony Ward, Francis and the other click-bait generators. All the hype and now this ridiculously pessimistic nonsense after a narrow loss is generated completely by the same media commentators which then sit on their high horses and pretend to rubbish it. We can’t just humbly enjoy our victories and take defeats with grace. As others have said, every victory is a new era and every defeat is a crisis.
http://youtu.be/IEuXfewLcuY