Paul Fennessy

Updated at 09.15

4. Morocco

There has been much not to like about the Qatar World Cup, with the negative aspects mostly occurring away from the football pitch, but Morocco’s unlikely progression to the semi-finals while cheered on by an avid fanbase has been one of the feel-good stories of this unique tournament. Most people didn’t even expect them to get out of a group that included Belgium and Croatia, yet to subsequently knock out two highly fancied teams (Spain and Portugal) on their way to becoming the first-ever African side to reach the semi-finals is almost fairytale stuff. That said, were they to win the competition outright, it would surely be the biggest shock in the history of major tournaments, eclipsing even Greece at Euro 2004 and Denmark at the same competition in 1992. Key to their success has been what is by most measures the best defence at the tournament. Remarkably they have still only conceded one goal — against Canada in the group stages. Consequently, they have needed just five goals from five games to realise what is already a historic run. The concern is that the tiredness from all these grueling matches where they have spent the majority of the contest without the ball will finally catch up with them in the coming days. And while their next opponents France expect to win the tournament outright, Morocco have already achieved major success regardless of what happens next, so psychologically that may hamper rather than boost their hopes of another upset on Wednesday.

3. Croatia

It turns out that having several key players who are on the wrong side of 30 going into the World Cup is not necessarily a bad thing. Veterans Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic, and Dejan Lovren have been among the outstanding individuals as Croatia have defied the odds for a second tournament running and made it to the semi-finals. A repeat of their 2018 final with France, which would be the first instance of back-to-back World Cup finals involving the exact same teams since 1990, now looks like a distinct possibility. Yet even if they should come unstuck against an Argentina team that will be considered slight favourites this Tuesday, for a country with a population of less than four million who have only been eligible to qualify since the late ’90s, to be competing in their third World Cup semi-final in the space of 24 years feels like a minor miracle. They will certainly be confident if any upcoming games go to penalties, having secured two consecutive shootout wins in the knockout stages and missed just one out of eight spot kicks in that period.

2. Argentina

Despite making it this far, there is still something strangely unconvincing about Argentina. They could only get better after their disastrous opening loss to Saudi Arabia and they deserved to emerge from the group after beating Mexico and Poland. However, twice now, they have come close to imploding owing to late rallies. Having been coasting 2-0 against Australia, a 77th-minute Enzo Fernandez own goal set up a nervy finish and the South Americans were lucky to avoid extra time after a couple of big climactic scares. Similarly, versus the Dutch, they looked set for a comfortable passage until Wout Weghorst scored one on 83 minutes and another in stoppage time to send the match to extra time. Nevertheless, those hoping the Argentines would collapse owing to this significant psychological blow were left disappointed — they showed impressive resilience and were the better team in extra time before having the mental fortitude, a quality some critics previously accused them of lacking, to prevail on penalties. As a result, all eyes remain on Lionel Messi, as he looks to end his international career in a fitting fashion and perhaps definitively secure his status as the greatest footballer of all time. The doubts remain, of course, but Lionel Scaloni’s men are certainly made of stronger stuff than that initial Saudi implosion indicated.

1. France

Always considered among the pre-tournament favourites, France are perhaps the only one of the big, strongly fancied European nations not to underachieve — albeit that opinion may be revised should perennial giant-killers Morocco cause another almighty shock on Wednesday. Didier Deschamps’ squad is by some distance the strongest left in the competition on paper, though during this tournament, in particular, reputation has counted for little invariably. Yet if anyone can break down the Moroccans’ mean defence, it is Les Bleus. Even on a largely off day, record goalscorer Olivier Giroud proved the difference against England, while Kylian Mbappe — another player who was restricted amid the tight, tense, scrappy encounter with the Three Lions — has for the most part excelled at this tournament and is in pole position to claim the Golden Boot,  as he sits one ahead of both Giroud and PSG teammate Lionel Messi in the scoring charts. However, perhaps their most underrated performer has been Antoine Griezmann, one of the best players in the England win, with the 31-year-old Atletico Madrid man refashioning his game in a deeper creative midfield role at this tournament. They will, however, need to cut out the silly defensive mistakes that almost derailed their bid against Gareth Southgate’s side — both penalties they conceded were needless and incredibly sloppy for this level of football. But fortunately, their highly clinical attack compensated for these mishaps to keep them on course for a second consecutive World Cup triumph and third overall.

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