A RIVETING RUN-in lies ahead in the URC regular season with six games to go before the play-offs.
As the action resumes this weekend, Leinster are the runaway leaders but the battle for play-off spots will be intense, with just six match points separating Cardiff in sixth position and Zebre in 15th position.
The top eight teams will go into the quarter-finals and with meritocracy now in place, Champions Cup qualification for next season is also on the line.
Here’s how things are looking for the Irish provinces ahead of the run-in.
Leinster
Current position: 1st
Remaining games: Bulls [A], Sharks [A], Ulster [H], Scarlets [A], Zebre [H], Glasgow [H]
Leo Cullen’s men are currently in South Africa for their two-game tour, having had an unhappy experience on their trip there around this time last season when the Lions and Stormers hammered them.
That tour ended up costing Leinster dearly as they missed out on top seeding for the play-offs and were beaten by the Bulls back in South Africa as they had to travel for the semi-finals.
This time, things are different because Leinster have won all 12 of their games so far and are already 13 points clear of second-placed Glasgow. It gives them a comfortable buffer, even if Leinster will be ultra-determined to show more quality in South Africa in the next two weekends.
Even still, they have a relatively manageable run-in for the final four regular-season games, three of which are at home, meaning it would take a total collapse from here for the eastern province not to claim top spot for the play-offs.
Having home advantage for the Champions Cup round of 16 against Harlequins also makes things more negotiable on both fronts.
Leinster should fancy their chances of earning home advantage all the way through the URC knock-out stages and winning their first title since it became the URC.
Munster
Current position: 5th
Remaining games: Glasgow [A], Connacht [A], Bulls [H], Cardiff [A], Ulster [H], Benetton [H]
Munster missed the chance to close the gap to the top four when they lost at home to Edinburgh three weekends ago and they now face into an interesting run of games as they hope to make up that ground.
Fourth-place Sharks are six match points ahead of Munster, who will obviously want home advantage for the quarter-finals at least. All the while, Munster need to keep the gap below – Cardiff are two match points behind, with many others also in sight – from closing any more.
So Friday night’s visit to second-placed Glasgow is a huge match for the southern province, while they still have to face another top-four side in the Bulls, albeit at home.
The inter-pro derby away to Connacht in two weekends will be another momentous occasion given that the westerners are hosting it in the 25,000-capacity MacHale Park in Mayo.
Munster will travel to Cardiff too, but they do have the comfort of being at home for their final two regular-season games against Ulster and Benetton. They could either be using that home advantage to try and seal a top-four place or fighting to stay in the top eight.
Let’s not forget that Munster also have the small matter of a Champions Cup round of 16 visit to Ronan O’Gara’s La Rochelle on the first weekend of April.
Connacht
Current position: 9th
Remaining games: Ospreys [A], Munster [H], Stormers [A], Lions [A], Edinburgh [H], Zebre [A]
Bonus-point wins against Cardiff and Benetton in the two Six Nations fallow weeks weren’t without their thrills and spills, but those good results have reinvigorated Connacht’s URC season.
The western province are just outside the play-off spots and trail fifth-placed Munster by only four match points. They will rightly be viewing themselves as being in the thick of this play-off race.
Yet they undoubtedly have a very challenging run-in ahead given that they have to go on tour to South Africa next month to play the Stormers and Lions, as well as having two other away games against the Ospreys this weekend and Zebre in the final round.
Their home games are also both against teams currently ahead of them in the league in fifth-placed Munster and seventh-placed Edinburgh, so they will be fierce battles. It’s certainly an uphill task.
Connacht have to consider their tilt at silverware in the Challenge Cup in all of this. They have home advantage for the knock-out stages up until the Challenge Cup final, starting with the visit of Cardiff to Galway on the first weekend of April.
Ulster
Current position: 14th
Remaining games: Dragons [A], Stormers [H], Leinster [A], Sharks [H], Munster [A], Edinburgh [A]
The intense nature of this run-in is underlined by the fact that Ulster are currently six places off the play-off places but trail the eight-placed Lions by only two match points. There really is scope for tumultuous change from weekend to weekend.
That all makes this weekend’s visit to bottom club Dragons, who have won just once all season, a must-win for Ulster.
Richie Murphy’s men still have some tough games to come beyond that, with inter-provincial trips away to Leinster and Munster, as well as a final-day visit to Edinburgh. The only two home games in this run-in will see Ulster hosting South African opposition in the Stormers and Sharks.
The fear for Ulster fans is that the damage may already have been done with seven defeats in their 12 games up until this point. They don’t hold out too much hope for the Champions Cup round of 16 visit to high-flying Bordeaux either.
So the job for Murphy’s side is to surprise the rest of the URC with an excellent run into the play-offs. Otherwise, it will be Challenge Cup rugby next season as the rebuild continues.
A riveting run in , that’s for sure ..some big games coming up in the final rounds , really looking forward to it….
If we get to the Heineken cup it will be a miracle, but if we do our players still won’t fit the Ireland system?