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Everton players celebrate at Brighton yesterday. Alamy Stock Photo

Relegation race - Why final day drama beckons to avoid Premier League drop

Everton and Nottingham Forest boosted their hopes yesterday but goal difference could yet prove crucial as Leeds and Leicester scrap.

A TWIST OF fate and quirk of circumstance might just have some Everton fans believing again.

Before yesterday’s stunning 5-1 win at Brighton eased them a couple of points clear of the relegation zone, the last time they scored five goals away from home in the Premier League was on St Stephen’s Day in 2018.

The victims?

Sean Dyche’s Burnley.

He is now the latest man plotting another relegation escape for The Toffees, belief and optimism coursing through their veins like Dwight McNeil on a rampaging counterattack.

“People will be out there thinking right, OK, there’s life in that team but we’ve never lost sight of that,” Dyche said yesterday.

“It just reminds the players that their work ethic, their commitment to the cause, their commitment to the group is really important because
I know there’s quality.”

It has rarely been evident over the last number of years but, if you need a sense of the chaos that has led Everton to this point, the nature of their managerial appointments is a good place to start.

Marco Silva was in charge when they ran riot at Turf Moor.

He was in the job about seven months having taken over from Sam Allardyce, coincidentally parachuted in by Leeds United for the final month of this maddening Premier League campaign as they too seek to avoid the drop.

From Big Sam to Silva, a brief Duncan Ferguson interlude led to the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti – amazing as it seems given that tonight he will lead Real Madrid into a Champions League semi final with Manchester City as the Spanish giants aim for back-to-back European Cup triumphs.

When Don Carlo departed for the Santiago Bernabeu, the Goodison Park hierarchy sought to rebuild the trust and confidence and positivity he had fostered by appointing Liverpool legend Rafael Benitez.

Financial Fair Play requirements were biting following a plethora of wasteful mistakes in the transfer market.

Marcel Brands was a very on-brand director of football from 2018-21, leaving during the Spaniard’s short and fractured reign.

Benitez was gone in early 2022 – Big Dunc returned for a couple of weeks – before Frank Lampard was installed on 31 January.

By 23 January the following year Lampard – after overseeing a dramatic survival and ode to Seamus Coleman last season – was gone.
Dyche, the gravel-toned pragmatist seemed to sooth some of the concerns.

A win over Arsenal in his first match added to the optimism, before reality quickly bit. Yesterday’s win felt like an escape from the reality of their situation without actually confirming their safety.

They have Manchester City at home this Sunday, Wolves away the following Saturday before Bournemouth at Goodison on the final day.

With the latter pair of team safe, four points from their final three games is realistic. Ensuring City don’t do serious damage will be important for their goal difference (-21) which is 10 better off than Nottingham Forest who are one point clear.

Steve Cooper’s men were the third of the four sides still realistically vying for safety playing last night, and their 4-3 win over Southampton has effectively ensured the bottom side’s relegation.

Forest are three points clear of their bitter rivals Leicester City, who also shipped five goals in defeat to Fulham early yesterday afternoon.

The Foxes have a significantly better goal difference (-15 to -31) over Forest so one win could still swing matters for them.

Liverpool, now in with a chance of Champions League qualification, are the visitors to Leicester on Monday before Dean Smith plots a trip to Newcastle, who are also still fighting to secure top four.

There is a considerable chance Leicester fail to get a point in their next two games, while Forest also face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and Arsenal at the City Ground ahead of the final-day visit to Crystal Palace.

Leeds, hoping for that Big Sam and Robbie Keane bounce, will need to get something from either Newcastle (h), West Ham (a) or Spurs (h) in their final three fixtures to escape.

Another factor to consider is that West Ham, whose final two league games are with Leeds and Leicester, could have a UEFA Conference League final to prepare for should they beat AZ Alkmaar in the semis (the second leg is three days before they host Leeds).

So it would be no surprise heading into the last set of fixtures if Leeds have made it to 33 points along with Everton and Forest.

Final day drama beckons, and goal difference could prove crucial.

Premier League relegation race as it stands (all played 35 games)

  • 16th: Nottingham Forest (33 pts, -31 gd)
  • 17th: Everton (32, -21)
  • 18th: Leicester City (30, -15)
  • 19th: Leeds United (30, -25)

Remaining fixtures

  • Leeds United: Newcastle (h)West Ham (a), Spurs (h)
  • Leicester City: Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), West Ham (h)
  • Everton: Manchester City (h), Wolves (a), Bournemouth (h)
  • Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (a), Arsenal (h), Crystal Palace (a)

Prediction: Southampton, Leeds and Nottingham Forest to be relegated.

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