Garry Doyle

JOHANN VAN GRAAN is at a crossroads again. It’s been that way from day one in Limerick, one signpost pointed firmly at the past, another eastwards to Leinster. It’s the path to success he wants but if that’s going to ever happen before he heads off to Bath, then tonight (v Leinster, 7pm kick-off, RTE, Premier Sport) is a must-win.

That may seem a little excitable given what we are talking about, a round 15 fixture of the URC, a competition that always seems to be in a desperate fight for credibility, but which suddenly found respect while the rest of the rugby world was looking at the Six Nations.

Across the last month, South Africa’s four franchises started to fulfill their promise, winning 12 out of 13 home games against European opposition, Munster victims on two occasions, against the Bulls and Lions.

The league has a different look now, Stormers, Sharks and Bulls occupying three of the play-off spots. Given how hard it is to beat those teams on South African soil, you simply don’t want to be discovering whether you’re up to the job or not when the quarter-finals begin.

So that’s why van Graan is at this crossroads. Should his Munster team win this evening, coupled with a defeat for Ulster at the Bulls, then a top-two finish, and by extension, a home route through the play-offs, is theirs to grab.

Currently three points behind Ulster, they have away dates in Belfast and Dublin to come, as well as a home game against Cardiff. You can confidently chalk five points next to Munster’s name looking at that fixture list but that’s as far as our generosity is prepared to go: Ulster’s home record is excellent this year, Leinster in the Aviva, well, we are all familiar with that script.

That brings us to the road Munster do not want to go near, the one pointing towards an away quarter-final in South Africa.

Looking at the URC table now, you may think they are safe from such a scenario. Well, think again. Their run-in, three games against the league’s top two sides, is tortuous whereas two of the teams chasing them, Edinburgh and Stormers, have comparatively easy conclusions to their season.

Stormers' results have improved on home soil. EJ Langer / INPHO EJ Langer / INPHO / INPHO

Much-improved Edinburgh are four points behind Munster but three of their final four games are at home, where their record is good, while their fourth game is today, against the Lions. That’s tough enough but context is needed: Edinburgh are the only European team to have chalked up a win in South Africa this season, following their win over the Sharks last weekend.

Then there’s the Stormers, nine points adrift of Munster, seemingly out of the running for a home quarter-final. Scrap that thought. Like Edinburgh, their home record is good; like Edinburgh they have only one away game remaining. Unlike Edinburgh and Munster, they have five games to play rather than four.

So lose tonight and Munster are looking down rather than up. It isn’t just bragging rights at stake; it’s the search for a safe passage through the play-offs. All those semi-final defeats van Graan has suffered – to Leinster in 2018, 2019 and 2020, Racing and Saracens in Europe – have been away from home. This season they are undefeated on their own patch.

It’s where they need, rather than merely want, to stay.

Can it happen? Can they get one over Leinster this evening? They’re the ones with points to prove, Chris Farrell after being left out of Andy Farrell’s Ireland squad; Damien De Allende after being outplayed by Robbie Henshaw in last season’s final; Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray after losing their Ireland places; Gavin Coombes for failing to get his.

Theoretically, the easiest thing to do is back the in-form players. It is Ireland’s backrow transferred from Farrell’s guidance to Leo Cullen’s; it’s the starting Ireland scrum-half (Jamison Gibson-Park) up against his replacement (Murray). Sport does not follow predictable scripts, though. How often have we seen players prove a point when they’ve been written off?

Friends and rivals: Murray and Gibson-Park Billy Stickland / INPHO Billy Stickland / INPHO / INPHO

Another question is whether Leinster’s returning internationals have the emotional reserves to go again at full intensity, so soon after the Six Nations’ conclusion? To win, they need to be at full pelt from the off, and need to be conscious of gifting Munster easy access into their 22. That’s where they are at their most effective, where they utilise their maul, when they unleash Coombes from close range.

You’d back Munster against most teams at home if they were lining out with Tadhg Beirne, a fit and healthy Keith Earls, Simon Zebo and Andrew Conway in their back three. But three of those four are missing, while Earls is only on the bench.

Also on the bench are six Leinster forwards. That tells you all you need to know about how intense this battle is going to be. Munster, in contrast, have picked five forwards among their replacements, four of those aged 23 or younger. They have it within them to win. More to the point, they need to win  whereas Leinster don’t. That extra level of desire could be the tipping point.

Munster: Matt Gallagher, Calvin Nash, Chris Farrell, Damian de Allende, Shane Daly, Joey Carbery, Conor Murray, Jeremy Loughman, Niall Scannell, Stephen Archer; Jason Jenkins, Fineen Wycherley, Peter O’Mahony (CAPT), Chris Cloete, Gavin Coombes.

Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Josh Wycherley, John Ryan, Thomas Ahern, Alex Kendellen, Craig Casey, Ben Healy, Keith Earls

Leinster: Hugo Keenan, Jimmy O’Brien, Garry Ringrose (CAPT), Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe, Ross Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park, Ed Byrne, James Tracy, Michael Ala’alatoa, Devin Toner, Jack Dunne, Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan

Replacements: Dan Sheehan, Cian Healy, Tadhg Furlong, Ross Molony, Josh Murphy, Luke McGrath, Ciarán Frawley, Max Deegan

Referee: Christophe Ridley (RFU)