WE’RE AT THE stage of the season where every point is precious in the URC, and looking at the table Connacht could certainly do with a boost heading into the final rounds of regular season action.
Edinburgh’s 4o-14 thumping of Zebre last night saw the province slip to seventh in the table on 44 points. Ulster (eighth) and Benetton (ninth) are also on 44 points, with 10th-placed Ospreys just four points behind.
It’s a congested race for the playoffs and after today’s trip to Thomond Park to take on Munster [KO 5.15pm, RTÉ/Premier Sports], Connacht will host the Stormers in Galway [18 May] before playing Leinster at the RDS [31 May] – the week after Leo Cullen’s men face Toulouse in the Champions Cup final.
Those are three tricky fixtures to navigate so it would take some of the pressure off Pete Wilkins’ side if they could snatch something from today’s encounter in Limerick. The URC’s playoff probability calculator gives Connacht a 52% chance of finishing in the top eight.
It’s a tough task facing them today. They go into the game without JJ Hanrahan, Cian Prendergast, Shayne Bolton and Denis Buckley, who are all injured. There were hopes Mack Hansen would be back from his shoulder issue for this game but the Ireland winger remains unavailable.
Connacht’s team still looks a strong one on paper, but Limerick hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for them recently. Connacht won a Rainbow Cup game in Limerick in 2021 but their last win at Thomond with supporters present was back in 2015.
Even after wins against the Dragons and Zebre, Connacht are still looking over their shoulder while Munster should be bouncing into this fixture.
Graham Rowntree’s side were brilliant in beating the Lions and the Bulls in South Africa and this game looks set up nicely for them, Rowntree deciding to keep some continuity in the team by making just two changes – Craig Casey and Alex Nankivell both coming into the starting XV.
There’s only five points separating them from league leaders Glasgow [who are away to the Bulls at 1pm] and a win today would really allow them to drive into the final two rounds of regular season games with a spring in their step.
With games against Edinburgh (away) and Ulster (home) to come, they have a real chance to finishing in the top two.
Last year Munster’s campaign ignited after wins on the road in South Africa and it’s tempting to think the same could happen again. The province endured a sticky patch earlier in the season as a long injury list contributed to some disappointing results, but the stretch in the evenings is again coinciding with them hitting their stride.
With a dry day forecast in Limerick and over 19,000 tickets sold, they must see this as an opportunity to build on the momentum generated in South Africa.
The defending champions thrive in dry conditions and have key men in form. Remarkably, today will also see Leinster-bound RG Snyman start a game at Thomond Park for the first time.
This has become a fascinating rivalry over the years and there’s often been a nice edge to Munster-Connacht battles, with six of their last eight meetings ending as one-score games.
Interestingly, Connacht have again opted for a 6/2 split on the bench, as Wilkins backs his pack to make an impact in the second half.
They certainly have the talent to make this an uncomfortable evening for their hosts.
Bundee Aki and Tom Farrell form a strong centre partnership while 22-year-old Matthew Devine is backed at scrum-half again.
Devine made three appearances off the bench between January and April but this will be his third start in a row. As one of the most exciting young prospects in Irish Rugby, it will be fascinating to see how the in-form Galway man handles the occasion.
His progress marks him as a potential Ireland international down the line, so this would be an ideal stage for Craig Casey to deliver an authoritative performance in the Munster nine shirt, having started the two games in South Africa on the bench.
Yet even with Connacht’s 6/2 split Munster’s bench might just swing it, with the likes of Oli Jager, Tom Ahern, Gavin Coombes, Conor Murray, Joey Carbery and Antoine Frisch all capable of coming in and making a big impact.
Munster’s form at Thomond has been patchy over the year and they’ve yet to beat any of the provinces this season. That should give Connacht confidence, but a strong Munster 23 should have too much for their visitors.
MUNSTER: Simon Zebo; Calvin Nash, Alex Nankivell, Seán O’Brien, Shane Daly; Jack Crowley, Craig Casey; Jeremy Loughman, Niall Scannell, Stephen Archer; RG Snyman, Tadhg Beirne (capt); Peter O’Mahony, Alex Kendellen, Jack O’Donoghue.
Replacements: Eoghan Clarke, Mark Donnelly, Oli Jager, Tom Ahern, Gavin Coombes, Conor Murray, Joey Carbery, Antoine Frisch.
CONNACHT: Tiernan O’Halloran; Shane Jennings, Tom Farrell, Bundee Aki, Byron Ralston; Jack Carty (capt), Matthew Devine; Peter Dooley, Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham; Joe Joyce, Oisín Dowling; Shamus Hurley-Langton, Conor Oliver, Paul Boyle.
Replacements: Dylan Tierney-Martin, Jordan Duggan, Jack Aungier, Niall Murray, Sean Jansen, Caolin Blade, Cathal Forde, Jarrad Butler.
Referee: Adam Jones [WRU]
I really thought he was going to be our x factor going into the 2019 World Cup. He could create something out of nothing like Habana or Robinson would have done. When he apologised for dropping the ball over the line against Leinster, I thought, Don’t do that man never apologise for a mistake and he’s never been right since. Biggest shame in Irish rugby I reckon.
@James Murphy: ah look what he’s good at he’s the very best, it’s the weakness in his game he never fixed. There’s plenty of bigger shames in irish rugby Nevin Spence for one or on the pitch losing Dan leavy to injury was awful too.
He definitely has all the tools to be a world class winger but probably needs to work on certain aspects of his game to put him in the elite bracket.hopefully he can push on from here and challenge for the Irish jersey
@M.chase: He’s 28 and peaked in 2018. Despite exaggerated reports of a return to form, he is nowhere near his Grand Slam and November 2018 form. That wasn’t last season or the year before. He might have been World Class in 2018 but he isn’t now and never going to be again. Far too much time has passed. He might win the odd cap here and there but he’s absolutely done as a top level international winger.
@Andrew Martin Farrell: Go on Andrew ya bollix
@Shane: He’s right I’m afraid
@Shane: no wonder he gave up social media.
@Philip Casserly: if a lie is repeated often enough it gets taken for the truth. No way is Stockdale finished, one of the top try scorers in the league esp when Ulster haven’t been playing through their backs last 2 seasons. Has been very good this season. Some people just prefer to regurgitate a lie than actally watch the player.
@Kingshu: his biggest issue was always his defence. He seems to be caught between should he melt someone or stay out and cover the pass, really good players read this and punish him. Ball in hand he’s better than everyone else, he just needs to make decisions quicker and back the call.
Irelands attempt to move him to fullback and all the negative commentary that brought, really impacted him. Add in a few injuries and it stalled his career. Farrell remained interested in him with good reason. Hopefully with Murphy encouraging him to roam more. He will get back to the levels he reached previously abd beyond. His form in the last 18 months would suggest that is possible.
he had one good season. which makes me belief that was an exception and not the norm.
@Niall English: that’s absolute rubbish. One good season??? You haven’t a clue if you really think that