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Did Barcelona overpay for Luis Suarez?

A football research group analysed the worth of the players on the 2014 Goal Transfer List – and it makes better reading for some clubs than others.

PREMIER LEAGUE LEADERS Chelsea signed Diego Costa for almost half of his real value while Barcelona overpaid for Luis Suarez, a study by a footballing research group has estimated.

The Football Observatory, based within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) in Neuchatel, Switzerland, specialises in the statistical analysis of football.

The group uses an exclusive algorithm – taking into account values such as length of contract, age, position, goals, shots and minutes – to calculate the current value of nearly 1500 players from the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga or Ligue 1 who have transferred in the last five years.

The CIES Football Observatory analysed the players who featured in the 2014 Goal Transfer List and revealed that Chelsea were the big winners – signing Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas for well under their current value.

The Blues paid Atletico Madrid a €44 million transfer fee for Costa, but his real value today is €84m.

Meanwhile, Barcelona were the big losers, paying Liverpool €81m for Luis Suarez, who is only worth €48m, also recouping less than they should have done for Cesc Fabregas and Alexis Sanchez.

Chelsea dispensed with €37m for Fabregas, yet his current value is actually €62m. So far this season, Costa and Fabregas have been outstanding. The former has scored 12 goals in 13 Premier League games, while the latter already has 11 assists – more than any other player.

Chelsea also did great business when it came to selling players in 2014. Juan Mata was offloaded to Manchester United for a transfer fee of €44.7m, but his current worth is €33m. David Luiz was shipped off to Paris Saint-Germain for a mammoth €50m, yet his actual value is only €24m.

With the Stamford Bridge outfit currently leading the Premier League and looking well set for another assault on the Champions League, it is no surprise that manager Jose Mourinho is so pleased with the transfer work of his club.

“My club did fantastic, especially the way they killed the situation with Fabregas,” Mourinho beamed recently. “The club resolved the deal in record time and the way they did it with Barcelona was, for me, a big surprise.

“We are so happy with the squad we have. We have the squad we want and, I repeat, the club were fantastic in the way they worked so hard and so fast to get Diego, Filipe Luis and Fabregas.”

Manchester City were less impressive with their transfer business. The Citizens paid out €53.8m for Porto’s Eliaquim Mangala – making the Frenchman the most expensive defender in history. However, having struggled since arriving at Eastlands, the Football Observatory calculated that his real value is just €19m – a whopping €34.8m less than what City shelled out for him.

Of the five remaining members of the 2014 Goal Transfer List, only Arsenal’s Sanchez represented value for money – according to the Football Observatory. Arsenal paid Barcelona a fee of €40m for the Chilean star, but having netted 13 times already this campaign his current value is actually €61m.

Having undersold both Sanchez and Fabregas, Barcelona also overpaid for Suarez. The Uruguayan topped the 2014 Goal Transfer List, and will eventually cost the Blaugrana almost €253m if all bonus-related objectives are met during the course of his five-year deal at Camp Nou.

Suarez’s transfer fee from Liverpool was €81m – the third highest in history – but his current value is only €48m and this figure will continue to drop unless he starts finding his feet at Camp Nou. He has yet to score in La Liga.

Barca’s bitter rivals Real Madrid also spent over the odds on their big South American signing of the year. James Rodriguez was acquired for a transfer fee of €80m from Monaco, but the Football Observatory estimate his actual value at €30m lower.

Finally, Manchester United and their chief executive Ed Woodward have come under fire for a string of expensive signings over the last 18 months and once again they weren’t shy to over-spend this summer. Angel Di Maria’s present value is €57m, but was purchased from Real Madrid for €75m, Luke Shaw was signed for almost €12m more than his actual worth, while the aforementioned Mata was acquired at an inflated price.

Mata’s former club Chelsea were once derided for their excesses in the transfer market – but not any longer. Having signed Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas at a fraction of their actual value, the Blues can now be considered one of Europe’s shrewdest clubs.

– Carlo Garganese

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    Mute Glenbower
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    Jun 25th 2020, 11:46 AM

    Barry Daly was particularly unlucky with injuries. A very effective try-scorer.

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    Mute Barra Mac An Bhaird
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    Jun 25th 2020, 2:14 PM

    @Glenbower: would he be worth a shot by Connacht? Seriously depleted in the back 3

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    Mute hypebeast
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    Jun 25th 2020, 2:44 PM

    @Barra Mac An Bhaird: yes I think he’s a class player annoyed that leinster did not keep was extremely sharp before his injury.

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    Mute Stephen Rogan
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    Jun 25th 2020, 3:48 PM

    @hypebeast: Totally agree. Great skillset and excellent finisher; I don’t remember him ever making a significant mistake. I prefer him to Kelleher in the back 3. He’d be a very good addition to the Connacht squad.

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Jun 25th 2020, 5:58 PM

    @Barra Mac An Bhaird: I have a feeling he may be retiring due to injuries

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    Mute Sam Harms
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    Jun 25th 2020, 11:46 AM

    Sad to see Barry Daly is leaving

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    Mute Jim Demps
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    Jun 25th 2020, 11:39 AM

    That’s remarkable work

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    Mute #JUSTICE4NOEL
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    Jun 25th 2020, 11:32 AM

    New contracts for Leavy, connors and VDF…..

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    Mute Carmine Lorenzo
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    Jun 25th 2020, 12:59 PM

    @#JUSTICE4NOEL: Maybe now that will put to bed any notions of other provinces scrounging around looking for one of them!

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    Mute Kevin
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    Jun 25th 2020, 12:17 PM

    That’s a great mornings business. Delighted Fardy is getting another contract. He brings so much to Leinster. Great to see all the 7’s staying too though Leo has some selection headaches now.

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    Mute Andy Dwyer
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    Jun 25th 2020, 12:50 PM

    @Kevin: Great to see Fardy stay. A real leader. We might see him in a coaching role in 2 years. 5 players promoted from the academy is a great return also.

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    Mute Umpaloompa
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    Jun 25th 2020, 11:59 AM

    Great bit of business, always good to see the academy lads getting senior contracts. Nice to see all the 7s are staying as well as Fardy.

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    Mute Carmine Lorenzo
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:01 PM

    Gutted for Barry Daly. Fastest man in the squad and hugely prolific scorer. Desperately unlucky with injuries, it’s such a shame. Schmidt even had called him into camp at one point.

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    Mute Pretty Ladee
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    Jun 25th 2020, 11:52 AM

    Any of these players interested in a move West, Connacht getting weaker each year since 2016.

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:18 PM

    @Pretty Ladee: 2 of the players leaving are going west.

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    Mute Pretty Ladee
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:19 PM

    @Chris Mc: connacht need proven professionals not kids,

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    Mute Kohn Jeenan
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:32 PM

    @Pretty Ladee: didn’t qualify for the Heineken cup 2 years in a row and followed that up by qualifying the next 2 years in a row, doesnt really sound like a decline ?

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    Mute Pretty Ladee
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    Jun 25th 2020, 3:20 PM

    @Kohn Jeenan: look at this years departures, compared to signings, hardly an achievement qualifying for the heineken cup

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Jun 25th 2020, 5:34 PM

    @Pretty Ladee: there’s hardly a single player to come through the leinster academy that’s not ready for the pro 14

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    Mute Kohn Jeenan
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    Jun 25th 2020, 5:54 PM

    @Pretty Ladee: we’ve qualified on our own merit for the Heineken cup maybe a few times ever so I’m not sure how you can say it’s not an achievement, departures is kind of worrying but have to presume there’s some plan

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    Mute Ro Molloy
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    Jun 26th 2020, 1:58 PM

    @Pretty Ladee: Aungier is a gem of a player and a big loss to Leinster. He will soon be a favourate in the Sportsground

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    Mute Conor Mulloy
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    Jun 25th 2020, 11:52 AM

    With Joe Tomane departing, I presume Leinster have room to sign another non Irish player, obviously not possible with the current economic situation.
    Amazing to think that with Leinster’s academy, they will need nor miss this opportunity!

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Jun 25th 2020, 12:35 PM

    @Conor Mulloy: a none irish loose head might be the only requirement as healy will be away and is not getting any younger. Saying that it’s a great opportunity for the younger lads to step up.

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    Mute Carmine Lorenzo
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:04 PM

    @Chris Mc: A NIQ loosehead is a good shout. That said, Dooley had upped his game pre-COVID19 and was playing very well.

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:17 PM

    @Carmine Lorenzo: agree Dooley has stepped up but say going into a HC final and healy was injured dooley and Byrne doesn’t sound as good as healy and mcgrath

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    Mute Carmine Lorenzo
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:49 PM

    @Chris Mc: Nope it definitely does not, a certain drop off there. I guess we’ll find out soon enough whether Milne has what it takes.

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Jun 25th 2020, 2:08 PM

    @Carmine Lorenzo: if Leo trusts dooley Byrne and milne that’ll do for me.

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    Mute john flynn
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    Jun 25th 2020, 11:39 AM

    Def jealous of that

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    Mute Mark Smith
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:01 PM

    Fantastic strength in depth and who would not want to sign on when the team is on the crest of a wave

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    Mute Niall Farren
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    Jun 25th 2020, 3:42 PM

    Yeah v disappointed for Daly, He’s a VG player when fit

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    Mute Damien Flanagan
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    Jun 25th 2020, 2:33 PM

    Great business by leinster selection ain’t easy delighted for Vardy

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Jun 25th 2020, 1:00 PM

    Are we becoming very forward heavy compared to backs. (with ferg and Rob) added to the list that moved on today

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