TITLE HOPEFULS Arsenal and Liverpool face off this afternoon and it might not be a classic.
One of the primary pre-game storylines is the emphasis both sides have placed on a strong defence this season.
Both teams have been legitimate rivals to Pep Guardiola’s dominant Man City team at various points and have the potential to compete with the Etihad outfit.
The cliché around this time is to point out that it is early in the season and to downplay a team’s form because there is a long way to go in the campaign.
With less than a quarter of the season played, it is understandable that Liverpool fans aren’t getting too carried away with an impressive seven wins from eight and alarm bells aren’t exactly ringing for the Gunners despite a disappointing return of just five victories.
Yet the narrative that fast starts are inessential sometimes feels like a by-product of the Premier League’s early days.
Alex Ferguson’s great 1990s Man United teams often would begin slowly before gathering momentum around Christmas time.
The Red Devils won their first Premier League title (1992-93) in a 42-game season, despite dropping points in 18 matches (12 draws and six losses). In 1993-94, they reduced the number to 15 (11 draws and four losses).
During the first 38-game season (1995-96), they triumphed despite dropping points 13 times (seven draws and six defeats). It was 17 the next season and even their great 1999 side dropped points in close to half their games (16 fixtures). They dropped points 15 times and only accumulated four points fewer than the treble winners in Erik ten Hag’s first season as manager but that was only good enough for a distant third-place finish.
So in that bygone era, you could afford to drop points around 15 times and still have a strong chance of winning the title. That seems unthinkable in the modern Premier League.
Only once in the last five seasons have the title winners dropped points on more than 10 occasions. That was the 2020-21 season, when City suffered six losses and five draws, though it was one of the few instances when they had no strong title rival pushing them (they still managed to finish 12 points ahead of Man United in second).
That was also the lowest winning points tally in the last five seasons (86). Meanwhile, in 2017-18, Guardiola’s City became the first team to pass the 100-point barrier.
In comparison in the ’90s 38-game campaigns, between 70 and 80 points effectively guaranteed teams would be in strong contention for the title race.
So there is less margin for error than ever — a factor Mikel Arteta and Arne Slot are undoubtedly well aware of.
Perhaps that is why a conspicuous degree of caution has characterised both sides’ play of late, which they consider the best approach towards toppling City.
A key reason for Liverpool’s fantastic start has been their backline. The Reds have conceded three goals from eight matches, making them comfortably the most solid team in the division. The only club to have beaten them boasts the Premier League’s second-best defensive record (Nottingham Forest).
Similarly, Arsenal did not win the title last season but finished with the strongest defensive record, conceding only 26 times over 38 games.
This season has seen Arteta double down on this defensive philosophy with mixed results.
The Gunners shut out Tottenham in a 1-0 away win last month and secured early-season clean sheets against Wolves and Aston Villa.
They were also seconds away from a famous win over Man City despite playing a full half of football with 10 men in a dramatic, backs-to-the-wall display.
However, an injury to key attacking midfielder Martin Odegaard has rendered the Gunners less effective in the final third and short of creativity at times.
Last week’s surprise 2-0 loss at Bournemouth, the North Londoners’ first league defeat of the season, was a case in point. Arteta was criticised in some quarters for fielding such a defensive starting XI and their problems were exacerbated after William Saliba’s first-half sending-off.
That result led some to question Arsenal’s discipline (it is the third time this season that one of their players has been dismissed) and whether Arteta’s increasingly intense focus on not conceding is becoming more of a hindrance than a help.
The consensus around Slot’s more impressive start is that he has tweaked Jurgen Klopp’s approach rather than discarding it.
Some pundits have suggested Liverpool are less open and not as keen on risk-taking since the Dutchman became boss.
But that claim is somewhat unfair to the German coach. At their best, the Reds were as strong defensively as they were in attack during the Klopp era.
Interestingly, of the five best defence performances by a team over a season in Premier League history, only one has been in the last decade — Liverpool’s 2018-19 campaign, when they conceded 22 goals.
That statistic also raises another interesting question. Is attack the best form of defence in the modern Premier League era?
In the past five seasons, Man City won four titles. Yet in only one of those campaigns saw them emulate the Arsenal team of last year by conceding fewer than 30 goals.
By contrast, two of the top three best attacking seasons in Premier League history were by Guardiola’s men (although one of those was the season when Liverpool won the title).
The Catalan manager’s attacking style has been emulated across English football’s top flight. The record for goals scored was broken last season and previously in the 2022-23 campaign.
But cycles tend to come and go in football. Perhaps the era of attacking with abandon is reaching its peak. Coaches like Arteta and Slot may be right to sense a tide change.
Yet what is certain is that for Arsenal in particular, today’s match feels like a must-win.
Dropping points for a fourth time this early in the campaign will be hard to come back from, as recent history illustrates.
