WHEN PUSH CAME to shove in the awful weather on St Stephen’s Day in Limerick, the Leinster forwards had just a little too much grunt for Munster to match.
Sure, the home pack at Thomond Park had some big scrum moments, some gritty maul defence, and plenty of dogged work in the trenches, but Leinster’s muscle told as their starters up front were helped by an impactful bench.
And so the question for Ulster this evening at the RDS [KO 5.15pm, RTÉ/Premier Sports] is whether their forwards can front up in what could be another dogged inter-provincial encounter.
It remains to be seen if the rain arrives as the forecast suggests is likely but whether it’s wet or not, Ulster’s forwards will need to deliver a powerful performance if Dan McFarland’s side are to build on the wins over Racing 92 and Connacht that allowed them to enjoy Christmas.
Leinster boss Leo Cullen has made 14 changes to his team after the victory in Munster, but that certainly doesn’t mean he’s sending out a weak side. The experienced Cian Healy and hooker Dan Sheehan, possibly the best in the world in his position, are joined in the front row by tighthead Thomas Clarkson, who is benefiting from plenty of exposure this season but now faces a major test. The 23-year-old will scrummage against back-to-back World Cup winner Steven Kitshoff at the RDS.
James Ryan returns to lead Leinster from the second row and doesn’t have co-captain Garry Ringrose with him on the pitch, so there’s no way referee Frank Murphy can get away from chatting to Ryan, as two refs have chosen to do when Ringrose has been around recently.
Jason Jenkins offers plenty of grunt alongside Ryan, while the back row blend of Ryan Baird, Will Connors, and Caelan Doris looks nicely balanced. Up against an Ulster trio of Matty Rea, Sean Reffell, and Nick Timoney, Leinster boss Cullen will hope that back row can be dominant.
Ulster’s leaders like captain Iain Henderson and hooker Rob Herring will need to be prominent, while this would be an ideal time for tighthead prop Tom O’Toole to produce a statement performance against lots of his international team-mates.
The worrying thing for Ulster is that Leinster have serious forward firepower to call on from their 6/2 bench split, with Ireland internationals Joe McCarthy, Jack Conan, and Josh van der Flier joined by Samoa tighthead Michael Ala’alatoa and the dynamic duo of hooker Lee Barron and emerging loosehead prop Jack Boyle.
Ulster should get some pop off the bench themselves from hooker Tom Stewart, promising tighthead Scott Wilson, and the experienced back row Dave Ewers.
Among those hoping that Leinster’s forwards get the edge is their out-half Sam Prendergast, the 20-year-old starting an inter-provincial game for the first time. There’s no doubting his talent and it’s useful to have the influential Jamison Gibson-Park at scrum-half and Robbie Henshaw at number 12, meaning plenty of nous around him.
Ulster’s backline is an impressive one, with the reinvigorated John Cooney hoping to get clean, quick ball to out-half Billy Burns so he can unleash the likes of Stuart McCloskey, Rob Baloucoune, and Jacob Stockdale. Give them front-foot ball and they will do real damage.
Whether the Ulster pack can deliver enough of that may well be the deciding of this game as Leinster look to strengthen their grip on the top of the URC table.
Leinster:
- 15. Jimmy O’Brien
- 14. Tommy O’Brien
- 13. Liam Turner
- 12. Robbie Henshaw
- 11. Rob Russell
- 10. Sam Prendergast
- 9. Jamison Gibson-Park
- 1. Cian Healy
- 2. Dan Sheehan
- 3. Thomas Clarkson
- 4. Jason Jenkins
- 5. James Ryan (captain)
- 6. Ryan Baird
- 7. Will Connors
- 8. Caelan Doris
Replacements:
- 16. Lee Barron
- 17. Jack Boyle
- 18. Michael Ala’alatoa
- 19. Joe McCarthy
- 20. Jack Conan
- 21. Luke McGrath
- 22. Harry Byrne
- 23. Josh van der Flier
Ulster:
- 15. Will Addison
- 14. Rob Baloucoune
- 13. Luke Marshall
- 12. Stuart McCloskey
- 11. Jacob Stockdale
- 10. Billy Burns
- 9. John Cooney
- 1. Steven Kitshoff
- 2. Rob Herring
- 3. Tom O’Toole
- 4. Kieran Treadwell
- 5. Iain Henderson
- 6. Matty Rea
- 7. Sean Reffell
- 8. Nick Timoney
Replacements:
- 16. Tom Stewart
- 17. Andy Warwick
- 18. Scott Wilson
- 19. Alan O’Connor
- 20. Dave Ewers
- 21. Nathan Doak
- 22. Mike Lowry
- 23. Jude Postlethwaite
Referee: Frank Murphy [IRFU].
Unless Ulster change tactics and start getting back to their wingers things will be difficult for them. They have the stronger forwards starting the game but not the bench to match Leinster’s. Expect Leinster to win.
Ulster need Stockdale and Baloucoune to be the top of their game, which unfortunately is not the case at the moment. Both players have great potential but don’t get enough of the ball either to boost their confidence.
@Con Cussed: do Ulster have the stronger starting pack?
But for a last minute injury 5/8 of Leinster’s pack would have been at the world cup vs 4/8 of Ulster’s.
4 of Leinster’s in the match day 23 v 1 of Ulster’s.
7/8 of Leinster’s also have international caps vs 6/8 of Ulster’s.
I watched Ulster v Connaught last week and it feels like Ulster are close to clicking with their new brand of attacking rugby – they are in a place a bit like Ireland for almost a year under newly appointed Andy Farrell. It’s also noticeable that most of the Irish players are not back up to their best after a heartbreaking RWC 1/4 loss, and, since that means a significant proportion of the Leinster team, Ulster may just have a sniff this evening.
@Harry Black: A fair point about RWC impact but this is in Dublin and the fan base will be on fire. Expect Leinster to win the second half. They just need to manage Ulster in the first half. Cards may well be the decider and both teams will need to be very disciplined.
@Harry Black: Hopefully, of the games it should be by far the more entertaining (weather), Ulster have a poor history away from Leinster but would agree the fortune seems to be changing. Lesinter tho are winning everything even when not playing their best, sign of potentially where they can go this season should they move up a gear.
According to some Ulster fans, Herring is close to Sheehan and Ulster have the better pack… let’s see.
@Andrew Hurley: No, nice try at twisting though, but according to me, (the Ulster fans you mention) the FR of Kitchoff, Herring and ToT is better than Healy, Sheenan, clarkson, not the pack, just FR. I even expect Leinster may have the better scrum with Jenkins weight there and Reffle being one on the lightest BRs in Ireland. Sheenan is better than Herring no arguement on that, but Herring is better in throwing in at the line out, breaking of mauls and in scrum thats not saying Sheenan is bad at those, just Herring is stronger at set pieces, Sheenan better overall. But then, by the same token, according to you Leinsters back up players are better than BandI Lions.
Ulster should be favourites given the team’s put out. All they need is parity in the tight five and they should be able to run McCloskey, Timoney and Stockdale down Prendergast and/or Turner’s channels all evening for easy gains.
Leinster’s bench on paper adds something. However, in practice the 6-2 split is yet to be well used this season
@James K: It was used extremely well v Munster and helped take hold of and close out the game comfortably despite the close scoreline.
@Andrew Hurley: they almost negated it against Munster by leaving on both props till 75 mins.
@Ciaran Kennedy: The 6 – 2 split has nothing to do with props – you have the same number of replacement props, it’s to do with bringing impact from the back 5, and Baird (especially), Sheehan, Connors and Jenkins all turned the screw.