Donn McClean

IT IS A pity that it now looks like the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase is going to go ahead without Altior.

Nicky Henderson’s horse would have brought an extra dimension to the race, the dual Champion Chaser, one of the most high-profile National Hunt horses in training, stepping up to three miles for the first time.

It isn’t that Altior didn’t stay on his seasonal debut in the Christy 1965 Chase over two miles and five furlongs, the longest trip over which he had ever raced, when Cyrname beat him. He ran all the way to the line. You couldn’t have said that he was beaten by the distance. Just by a better horse on the day. And he had a hard race, so his trainer is giving him more time. It will be interesting to see where he goes next, but you have to think that a campaign that will culminate in a Gold Cup attempt is unlikely now.

Despite Altior’s (almost certain) defection, the King George remains fascinating. We still don’t know which of the Paul Nicholls duo Harry Cobden is going to ride for starters.

Cobden rode Clan Des Obeaux to win the race last year, and he has ridden the Kapgarde gelding in his last 10 races, but he has ridden Cyrname in four of his last five, including in the Ascot Chase last February when he took a Grade 1 field apart, and last time back at Ascot when he beat Altior.

It has to be likely that Cobden will ride Cyrname. Jockeys must deal in absolutes: which horse has the best chance of winning. Cyrname’s official rating is 177, he is the highest-rated steeplechaser in Britain. He is rated 8lb superior to Clan Des Obeaux, and they will obviously compete off level weights in the King George. Also, Cyrname is favourite, he is no better than 15/8, while Clan Des Obeaux is a 9/2 shot. If you had to ride one, you would ride the more likely winner, and the ratings and the market tell you that Cyrname is the more likely winner.

You may think that the odds are slightly wrong, you may think that Cyrname’s chance is not quite as good as the odds suggest, and that Clan Des Obeaux’s chance is a little better than his odds suggest. Say you think that Cyrname should be a 5/2 shot, not a 15/8 shot, and that Clan Des Obeaux should be a 7/2 shot, not a 9/2 shot. Cyrname is still shorter.

From a betting perspective, however, you deal in relative terms. A horse’s chance relative to his odds. If you think that Cyrname should be a 5/2 shot, you don’t back him at 15/8. And if you think that Clan Des Obeaux should be a 7/2 shot, you do back him at 9/2.

There are reasons for believing that Clan Des Obeaux should be shorter than he is. True, he was beaten by Road To Respect on his seasonal debut at Down Royal, but Road To Respect is top class when he has his conditions, and Clan Des Obeaux gave him a real race. Also, Paul Nicholls’ horse is rarely at his best on his first run of the season. He usually improves from his first run to his second, sometimes significantly.

Fourth in a novice chase on his debut in 2016, he won a Grade 2 contest at Newbury on his second. On his first run in the 2017/18 season, he was beaten by Whisper, then he won a graduation chase by seven lengths on his second. And last year, he finished fourth in the Betfair Chase on his debut, then won the King George on his second run.

You can be sure that Paul Nicholls has been training Clan Des Obeaux for the King George for a long time now, that his campaign has been designed to have him reach his peak on King George day. It may not have been a vintage King George that he won last year, and he only won by a length and a half in the end, but he appeared to win with much more in hand than that. He travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out. And Paul Nicholls knows how to have a horse at his peak for the King George. He has had 10 King George winners, more than any other trainer ever, even if five of them were Kauto Star.

Clan Des Obeaux is only seven. He is still a young horse. We may not have seen the very best of him yet. And the King George is a race in which previous winners do well. Silviniaco Conti, Kauto Star, Long Run, Kicking King. All multiple winners. One Man, See More Business, The Fellow, Desert Orchid. It’s not like the Cheltenham Gold Cup, a race in which Best Mate and Kauto Star are the only multiple winners since L’Escargot.

Cyrname is a worthy favourite, he deserves his rating, but it is likely that he was trained to the minute for his date with Altior at Ascot. He is going to have to bounce out of that and be as good again. Also, while he has won twice at Kempton, he still has to prove that he can be as good there as he is at Ascot, the track at which he has put up the three best runs of his life by some way, and he still has to absolutely prove his stamina for three miles.

It’s not just about the Nicholls two either, because Lostintranslation could be a superstar. Colin Tizzard’s horse won the Grade 1 Mildmay Chase at Aintree last April on his first run over three miles under Rules, and he looked very good in beating Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last time under Robbie Power.

He is going to have to step forward again if he is going to win a King George, and it is just a little concerning that the time that he clocked in winning the Betfair Chase was slower than the time that Crievehill posted in winning the handicap chase run over the same course and distance earlier on the day, carrying 5lb more. That said, he has buckets of potential. He could be anything.

And don’t forget about Footpad, star novice chaser two seasons ago, five for five, including four Grade 1s. Last season was a season to forget for Willie Mullins’ horse, but he was impressive in winning on his seasonal return at Thurles last month. He could be also be a player in a race that is bubbling over.