Reproduced with permission from Whiff Of Cordite
YESTERDAY WE HAD the forwards, today the backs. With 17 forwards picked we’re most likely looking at 14 backs; that’ll be three dedicated 9s, two out-halves, and two full-backs, leaving room for just seven three-quarters.
It’s all a bit of a squeeze, favouring players who can switch a bit between roles. Last time around, Luke Fitzgerald was left at home in favour of Fergus McFadden and Paddy Wallace.
Neither was as talented as Luke, but between them they could cover all the jerseys from 10 to 15 so it was them that went to Fergburger with the Farmer.
Scrum Half
First, the easy part. This unit is as close to nailed down as anything can be 10 months out from the tournament: Peter Stringer, Duncan Williams and Ian Porter. Williams to start the matches with Stringer on to freshen things up against tiring defences.
On the plane: Murray, Reddan and Marmion. Also in the picture: at a stretch, Isaac Boss
Fly Half
Johnny Sexton is a sure thing, and behind him the pecking order has undergone a bit of a reshuffle. Paddy Jackson has been short of form and is now injured for six weeks. It leaves him with a lot of ground to make up on Ian Madigan. Madge had a fine series and is increasingly confident at test level.
But can he get enough time at 10 at Leinster to cement his gains?Then there’s Ian Keatley, consistently solid for Munster, but maybe just a rung off the top in terms of pure talent – Keatley has the advantage of playing with Conor Murray, whereas to this point, PJ has been outside Paul Marshall.
Once Ruan Pienaar makes his return, there is every chance Jackson reverts to his springtime form, and is back to challenging Madigan. But at the moment it’s Madigan’s to lose.
On the plane: Sexton. Likely to join him: Ian Madigan. Also in the running: Paddy Jackson, Ian Keatley.
Centres
Ok, now it gets tricky. Based on the most recent squad, the likely centres are D’Arcy, Olding, Payne and Henshaw. The only certainty appears to be that Robbie Henshaw is going; he played 12, he played 13, he showed he has the goods; he’s in.
After that, it gets a bit cloudy and will remain so until at least after the Six Nations. Jared Payne’s injury meant he missed the chance to nail down the 13 shirt, but he looks a likely bet to be a regular from here on in.
Intrigue abounds at inside centre; Gordon D’arcy had two poor games and may just have slipped down the pecking order, but if anyone can hang on in there and squeeze into the squad it’s D’Arcy. Then there’s Stuart Olding.
The Ulster centre oozes talent, and was a bit unlucky that a lack of game-time at Ulster meant we didn’t see more of him this series, but his star is on the rise and it seems only a matter of time before he starts a high-profile test at 12.
His ability to cover 10 if we’re in a jam also means he can effectively fill the 2011-Paddy Wallace role. There we have it, Stuart Olding, the new Paddy Wallace.
Let the hype roll on. McCloskey is a possible bolter whose progress will be closely monitored, while Noel Reid and Mr. Face Doesn’t Fit appear further down the depth chart.
On the plane: Henshaw. Likely to join him: D’Arcy, Payne, Olding. Also in the picture: McCloskey, Cave, Reid
Wings
Four centres would leave room for just three wings. It’s a heck of a tight squeeze. Tommy Bowe will surely travel and Andrew Trimble, assuming he gets back from injury and starts playing well, has a huge amount of credit from the Six Nations.
He’s a Schmidt darling. Then it’s a fight between the incumbent, Simon Zebo and a cadre of players at a similar sort of level; Dave Kearney, Fergus McFadden, Craig Gilroy. Really, who knows.
Things tend to be a bit more fluid in the wide positions, with form generally dictating more than in other positions. Kearney made a try-scoring return with Leinster this weekend (that’s right, he scored a try!) while McFadden’s versatility counts for something.
Two players who could completely change the dynamic if they get fit are Keith Earls and Luke Fitzgerald, but at this stage we’re saying it so often we’re like a broken record. We almost can’t remember a time when either Earls or Fitz was consistently fit.
All we can do is hope for the best, but Schmidt is unlikely to take any risks; if it’s a choice between a fully-fit Dave Kearney and a bit-injured Keith Earls, he’ll go with the man who’s ready to play.
On the plane: Bowe. Likely to travel: Trimble, Zebo. Also in the picture: D. Kearney, McFadden, Gilroy. Potential game-changers if they can stop being injured for once: Earls, Fitzgerald
Full Back
Rob Kearney is a no-brainer. On the face of it, Felix Jones is more or less a sure thing to go as his deputy, but it may not be as cut and dried as that.
Jones is a fine player who had a great game against Georgia, but the fact that Henshaw, Payne and even Zebo and Olding can all fill in at full-back may leave him with more of a fight to get on the plane than you might think.
It’s not inconceivable that Joe could give the last place to a fourth wing given the options he has at full-back. But for now, Jones is probably likely to squeeze in; he must be desperate to do so after missing out so unfortunately last time.
On the plane: R. Kearney. Likely to travel: Jones
The question marks at centre could very well drive the composition of the rest of the backline – with Henshaw and Payne likely travellers and Olding likely to go if progress continues, it comes down to a yes/no on Dorce.
Based on the Autumn series, Darcy offers neither a line breaking threat, nor a passing threat, and his size is increasingly a misnomer in the age of the giants. But he’s been written off before and has doggedly stuck around. If D’arcy hangs in there, we are potentially picking one from Dave Kearney, McFadden, Gilroy, Earls, Fitz and Jones.
However, if the coach feels that D’Arcy simply can’t do the job at this level any more, he could bring an extra wing with centre experience – McFadden or Earls for example – and Jones as a specialist fullback to allow the first three centres to concentrate on being centres. D’arcy is the pivot around which the potential RWC dreams of a range of players appear to hang.
I wish Earls would stop getting injured. He’s an amazing player.
Luke Marshall is he can stop getting concussed is another outside shot for the centre
Luke Fitzgerald, Dave Kearney and Ferguson McFadden are not good enough!! Gilroy and Zebo way ahead of them!
FitzGerald on form and it’s a toss up for him and Bowe as most influential winger. I think most people would agree that starting them both (if fully fit) is our best wing combination. Unfortunately most articles / comments about FitzGerald contain the caveat “if he’s fit”. It’s a shame he’s had so many injuries. He can also cover quite ably in the centre. Luckily Trimble is very close behind in terms of potential contribution and hopefully his injury doesn’t set him back too much. If he can kick on this season, he will definitely be on the plane. With the three of them fit the rest will be somewhat hard pushed to get on the plane. Zebo making great strides but he’s still a step below these boys. Hope he continues to grow his game. Great situation to be in as a coach though.
Come off it when was the last time Fitzgerald even played a game
Week before the AIs. Which is why every time he’s mentioned is with the caveat *if fit*.
I realise that. I believe I mentioned his tendency toward injury in my comment. He’s still potentially got the ability to be our best winger. If he can get back to his best he should be on the plane. Stephen Ferris was our best six until he retired. He hardly played until he finally gave in. We all still lived in hope he’d be back. Not for inter pros though
You cannot still place fitzgerald that highly. Hasnt been there consistently for years due to injury. Ferris was injured and gone he didnt come back into the ireland squad or ulster squad properly as they were consecutive injuries. Fitzgerald plays in fits and spurts due to his injuries. Yes the odd time he is great but this doesnt justify being put in the squad ahead of someone who has played joes game plan and played all year. Fitzgerald is injured again also when was the last time he played for ireland? Was it that sub appearance against the all blacks last year? Mcfadden kearney zebo and gilroy deserve spots ahead of him.
Yes Adam I agree. RIGHT NOW all that you’ve mentioned deserve spots ahead of him. I did say “FitzGerald on form” though. Not straight off the physio table. There is the best part of a season to go however. It’s a rather significant hypothetical but if it proves not to be such, I would expect FitzGerald to be on the plane. If he can get a run in the Pro12, get on the bench or possibly start for a couple of 6N games and finish the season strongly, who knows?
Yes hypothetically i agree. But just dont see it happening now with another injury that prevented him playing last weekend. We would be better served talking about the numerous other options available to us that are fit and playing. Kearney mcfadden trimble gilroy zebo conway
Luke Fitz is a lion, they don’t throw around those caps to just anyone….
…That’s the last time SOB played for Ireland. Just saying
Keith earls is a lion too forgot to mention him. This is completely pointless if yous think he has a place on the plane right now he doesnt, has always been a great player but he is not world class like sean o brien.
Not only was Fitzgerald capped by the Lions, but he was only 21 at the time. That is a relatively rare feat. Sadly, 6 years on, his body appears unable to cope with the demands of pro rugby.
If – always the if – he can manage to stay fit, he could change the landscape in the backs: might even be an option at centre.
Similarly Earls – also on the same Lions tour at just 21 (although not capped) – was formerly one of Ireland’s most potent finishers. Would be great to see him fit and contesting too
If Fitzgerald gets fit by jan/feb and stays fit, he’ll play in the friendly games just before the World Cup, if he gets near his top form he’s on the plane. Personally I think he’s our best gamebreaker, has the ability to make something from nothing. Form will dictate if he goes
No Hanrahan!!
He doesn’t even start the big games for his own province!
You could use the same argument about Madigan and host of other players. That said JJ hasn’t done enough yet to be selected….
For me it’s: (if all are fit)
Murray, Marmion, Reddan
Sexton, Madigan, Jackson
Henshaw, Payne
Bowe, Zebo, Trimble, Earls, Fitz
Kearney
Jones is unlucky but so many of these can cover FB bring dedicated cover seems wasteful. Only named 2 centres but in my eye Darcy’s powers are already on the wane and that won’t improve with another 10 months, harsh on Olding but still a lot prove. Madigan, Earls and Fitz have all played centre for Ireland against top opposition. People are writing off Fitz and Earls but they are two of the most naturally talented backs we have in this country and were probably both in Joe’s 6N team sheet last year prior to injuries striking them down. Trimble was not getting much love last year before injuries gave him his chance but under Joe we finally saw him deliver on the potential he showed breaking through. Imagine what he could with players with god given abilities of Earls and Fitz available to him….
Bit light on inside centres there. Unless your 2nd choice 10 is Jackson?
Don’t think Olding has a lot to prove, anyone with half a brain can that he’s the real deal.
No point in taking Jackson either.
I like the idea of Earls as a fullback, played unreal there when we stuffed England at the Aviva few years back, although he’s not gonna get the game time there so might as well forget about it. Jones has been excellent anyway.
Well my 2nd choice 10 and 12 would be Madigan, the role he has been performing for Ireland for most of the last season, that’s on current form tho, no reason Jackson can’t reclaim that back up 10 spot in the meantime. After that I would take a fully fit Luke Fitz over Darcy as 12 cover at this point…
It won’t be a popular opinion but I think Olding still has a lot to prove. He is an immensely promising player but he has played very little top level rugby in his short career so far, the majority of his gametime has been in Pro12 games. He was building up a head of steam before his injury but that robbed him of the business end of last year Heineken Cup. In fact at this point JJ has probably made a much bigger splash in important games. Not saying Olding isn’t the real deal or won’t merit his place come the world cup, just that at this point he is one of a number promising young players that has lot to do before they claim one of only 31 spots in the squad at the expense of a established international player.
Fitz and Earls are simply not in the picture at the moment not only do they have to fight their way back to fitness but also discover some form along the way. However ignoring young players whose form clearly justifies selection is an unfair precedent to set because it harks back to the bad old days of player selection based on past performances and not present form. The squad that goes to the RWC will include those players with experience but will expect that form and fitness will play the biggest factors.
@JohnnyFitz – I think we’ve seen that Joe sees Jackson as a solid 2nd choice starter at out half if Sexton is unavailable, but not a bench option because he doesn’t cover any other position. We also can confidently say that Joe sees Madigan as primarily an out half, who can play 12 well. I’d say that, barring injury, Jackson is virtually excluded by his lack of versatility, and that Sexton & Madigan will be the only two 10s going.
For me, that also strengthens the case to bring Olding (or JJ, if he can nail a Munster place).
It seems a stretch that D’Arcy – who will be 35 in January – will make the squad.
@Christiaan. I’m not saying ignore young players or pick purely on reputation, but just because someone is this season’s great white hope doesn’t mean we should lose the run of ourselves, Olding has been very good in the games he has played and shown a lot of promise. But those games include a handful of European games and Pro12 games and he has been good in those games not exceptional. By contrast 12 months ago earls was the form wing in the country along with luke fitz they were doing serious damage in important European games before injury struck them down. People are ruling them out because of injuries and it might take them time to return to full speed but by the same criteria does not seem to apply to our other injured players. Sean O Brien has been out as long with more serious injuries, Chris Henry’s situation could be very serious, Healy, Henderson, Moore, Ryan. Earls and fitz have pedigree, yes they will have to show form and fitness like everyone selected, as it stand today they have delivered for Ireland time and again. Olding might overtake them come the RWC but as it stands he has done nothing special on the big stage.
@Brian I think 10 is such a specialist position you have to have 3 men covering in. Madigan flexibility definitely has him ahead of Jackson at the moment but gap when measured purely for their abilities at 10 isn’t that big. Imagine worst case scenario Jonny is ruled out in the first game, that rests your entire tournament on Madigan (a player yet to play there for his club)with Olding( a player who rarely to ever plays there) his only back up. There is a reason teams carry 3 deep in specialist positions like TH, Hooker, 9 and 10, it’s because you can’t simply move a player with no experience in there. Murray has played 10 for Munster but I wouldn’t fancy facing down the all black with him there and more than Olding within what would probably be his first handful of cap out of position. JJ would solve a lot of problems there but needs to step up a level at Munster before he can be considered. I’d much rather PJ trying to cope at 12 than any unrecognised 10 trying to cope at outhalf…
When did Murray play 10 for Munster?
@JohnnyFitz – Don’t think it will play out that way – historically hasn’t it. Remember what happened with Dan Carter last time? NZ chose two 10s – Carter & Colin Slade – in their squad. As it turned out, both were injured during the tournament and ruled out. Aaron Cruden and, later, Stephen Donald were called up as cover.
The same would happen if Sexton were to get injured; a replacement – currently most likely to be Jackson – would be called up.
At RWC 2011, of the top tier teams, only Wales took three fly halves – and one of those was “utility man” James Hook. We took ROG & Sexton.
Fine out half though he is, the prospect of Jackson trying to defend at 12 against the likes of Ma’a Nonu or Jamie Roberts is an ugly one…
@JohnnyFitz those players such as Earls and Fitz that have been dogged by persistent injury are not in the picture because Joe has proven that he will not play half fit players or out of form. If you were in Joes position would you take those players on the plane purely on Pedigree, particulary if you know they are still not 100% and still to discover form?
@ Cian. Murray was being trialled there last year when I looked like neither JJ or Keats would make the a HCup Game (I think it was Toulon), also filled in there at the close last week after we lost Sexton, not really an option, just pointing out even a player as talented as Murray with meagre experience at 10 would be worrying if selected there, so I think you need 3 players who have played 10 at a good level.
@ Brian. Maybe you are right in that you could get away with a first choice 10 and a back up but I think Madigan is going to be in the line of fire a lot seen as he is probably back up 10/12. As well as increasing the chance of injury you also have to look at rest and recovery, if Madigan is coming on at 12 in games like we have seen over the last season that is fair enough workload, is he also expected to play the entirety of games against the like of Romania and Canada too? At the last RWC I think most of the top teams took 3 to cover 10 except AB’s (which turned into a crisis for them and England) we took ROG, Sexton, Wallace. Boks had Steyn, Brock James, Lambie (Pienaar in a pinch). Aussies Cooper, Barnes, O’Connor, Beale. Wales Jones, Priestland, Hook. Scotland Jackson, Parks, Paterson, French has Yachvili as a 3rd and the Pumas had Contepomi. In the squad I named we would need to lose 5/6 backs before PJ would be needed at centre.
@Christiaan. Like I said with Sean O’Brien you could say the same thing, he too has been dogged by persistent injury and we have no idea what state he will return in but people have no problem including him because the RWC is 10 months off and he is due back and if you could guess exactly who will be fit and in form in 10 months from now then you should consider using those powers on the lotto. We have no idea what form or fitness any of these players will be in when the time comes (possibly except Heaslip). In the last few years the same thing could have been said about Paul O’Connell and Tommy Bowe. When picking something like this you have to assume you will have a full compliment to choose from even if it is unlikely because literally anyone can be struck down at any time. But in my opinion a fully fit Earls and Fitz are well worth their spots on the plane if not also in the 23.
Even if they still finding form?
@JohnnyFitz even if they are still finding form?
@Christiaan obviously you don’t take them if they are not in form, no more than you would select any other players (possible exceptions for Sexton, POC, Ross) if they were out of form. You select the best squad available on the day they squads have to be submitted regardless of what has gone before, but no one can guess what form or fitness any of these players will have in 10 months time so you pick it now on the basis that everyone is available, I don’t see why Earls and Fitz should be treated any differently from any of the rest (even if Fitz’s recent injury list is tragic). The last time they were both available the were in very good form which there is no reason to believe they can’t return to wtih fitness and gametime and both have a record of performing at the highest level for club and country in good years and bad….
I think if Fitzgerald stays fit he may play quite a bit at 13 for Leinster as well as being a top class winger. He’s one of the few players in Ireland with a real X factor. You could take him instead of Jones and you have any amount of players to cover 15 like Payne (better at 15 than 13 anyway) Henshaw, Madigan, Olding and even Zebo and Fitzgerald can play there so there would be no need for an extra fullback
Are my eyes deceiving me or is that Peter Stringer and Duncan Williams listed as being for the scrum half spots?
Pretty sure that was sarcasm.
Comes off as insulting; that blog has really lost its way.
Tom Court is also a Lion…. Just throwing that out there
Tom Court is NOT a Lion.
His only appearance was off the bench for the “Wednesday team” against Melbourne Rebels. It was not a Test match – only Tests count for caps.
It was pretty farcical that he was involved at all tbh.
He was only played cause he was eligible and in australia at the time! Absolute farce
If we go to the World Cup with Reddan and Darcy we will be lucky to get out of our group and we can forget about semi finals.
Both have been great players in the past but we seriously need to move on.
Most likely neither of them will start unless there are injuries but the combined experience they posses could be crucial, they have both played at the top level for a long time and won plenty of trophies during that time which some of the younger guys haven’t yet. I personally see henshaw as our best option at 12 and having Darcy who has won pretty much all there is to win at club and a lot at international level, his experience could benefit henshaw hugely, same goes with reddan and Marmion.
JJ can’t nail down a Munsters spot yet so little hope of making the Ireland squad.
Come on if I want the insight and opinion of a nameless blogger I can find them on boards or Munster fans
I used to think that keatley just didn’t have it in him, but recently he’s started to show some killer instinct recently. Hope it continues, I’d really like to see Munster go back to that ruthless juggernaut of old
This would be my 14 (minus Earls and Fitz, to avoid arguments over injury/fitness)
Murray, Redden, Marmion, Sexton, Madigan, Darcy, Olding, Henshaw, Payne, McFadden, Trimble, Bowe, Zebo, Kearney
So Positional cover (and selection order) is:
9 Murray Marmion Redden
10 Sexton Madigan Olding
12 Olding Darcy Henshaw Madigan
13 Henshaw Payne McFadden
11/14 Trimble Bowe Zebo McFadden
15 Kearney Payne Olding Madigan Henshaw
note: some of these are chosen for utility, for example: I am not saying olding is a better outhalf than Jackson JJ or Keatley, but he is a great 12/15
Is the squad limited to 31 by rules? I looked it up yesterday and couldn’t find anything on it even in the RWC tournament regulations. We took 37 for a 3 game November Series so I can’t see why we would bring a squad as small as 31 for a worst case scenario 4 games. If we only have 14 backs and one has a niggly injury that stops them training then you wouldn’t have 2 full backlines to run against each other.
There’s always a limit – if there wasn’t, it would move things ridiculously in favour of the top tier nations.
In 2011 it was 30, with the matchday squads since increased to 23 from 22 it’s reasonable to expect it’ll be 31 this time around. But as far as I know, there hasn’t been an official confirmation from the IRB yet.
Murray
Redden
Marmion
Sexton
Jackson or Madigan
D’Arcy
Marshall
Henshaw
Trimble
Bowe
Zebo
Kearney
Kearney
Payne
‘His size is a misnomer’? Do I win something for spotting the deliberate mistake?
Murray, Marmion, Reddan.
Sexton, Madigan.
Olding, Mc Closkey, Henshaw.
Bowe, Trimble, Zebo, Fitzgerald.
Kearney, Payne.