AS RECENTLY AS 2009, it was a foregone conclusion that Tiger Woods would catch Jack Nicklaus and win at least 19 majors.
But then came the scandal and the injuries, and all of a sudden he’s on the wrong side of 35 and still needs five majors to become the undisputed greatest of all time.
So at age 36, he’s too old to pass Jack, right?
No. There are lots of reasons to think Tiger can’t catch him — his knees are bad, we have no idea what the scandal did to him psychologically, and he has only won one PGA tournament since 2009. But age is pretty low on that list.
History disagrees with us.
Older players simply don’t win all that many majors. Take a look at this age break down of major champions (via GolfMajorChampions.com):
Just 22% of majors have been won by players who were Tiger’s age or older. And once you get to age 40, your chances of winning a major shrink dramatically.
So according to history: Tiger needs to win five of the 16 majors he has left before age 40, or he faces steep odds. Even worse, the pool of under-25 phenoms (McIlroy, Bradley, Day, etc.) will be entering prime major-winning age right when Tiger hits the point when golfers almost never win majors.
But there’s hope for Tiger!
Golf (and sports in general), has changed drastically in the last 10 or even five years. Athletes are simply playing better at older ages than they ever had before. Steve Nash is one of the best point guards in the NBA at age 38. Kobe Bryant leads in minutes after 16 years in the league. Jamie Moyer just made a major league roster at age 49.
You can attribute this trend to whatever you want (sports science, training, diet, exploding salaries creating an incentive to be in better shape, etc.), but one thing is clear: the role of age in sports is changing.
Take a look at the age break down of the top 25 favorites to win the Masters this week (according to the sportsbook Bovada.lv):
There are nearly as many contenders over the age of 38 (7), as there are under the age of 30 (8).
While the curve of this graph peaks between 30 and 33 just like the graph of major champions, there are more contending players toward the older end of the spectrum than you’d expect historically.
In addition, 35% of the last 20 majors (7 our of 20) have been won by players Tiger’s age or older, compared to 22% historically.
In short: Tiger has more time than the historical data suggests because golfers are playing at a high level for longer now. 36 is the new 32.
Another thing Tiger has going for him is his insane training regimen. You can’t predict when Tiger will decline because the sport has simply never seen an athlete like him. We know what happens to traditional golfers at age 40. But we have no idea what happens to a fit, super-focused athlete like Tiger Woods at age 40.
So no, Tiger is not too old to catch Jack.
That’s not to say he will catch Jack — he still has bum knee and a (possibly) shaky psyche. But you can’t rule him out on age alone.
- Tony Manfred
What deya think about that Kieran Donaghy???
Haha brill. Kerry got dirty and roughed up Donegal Armagh-style. Their foul count was incredibly lop-sided. They played puke football.
But now it’s claimed that it’s just because it’s win at all costs. Well if Kerry were in ulster then they’d be playing that way all season and if not then they’d have a very long route through the qualifiers, not parachuted into the quarters via Munster.
Kerry- welcome to our world!
All that aside – Donaghy brought this retort on Kerry himself. Can you imagine Murphy saying the same to Spillane when he won man of the match in the 2012 decider? No – cos that’s not classy.
Foul count:
1st: Kerry 10, Donegal 1
2nd: Kerry 7, Donegal 14
Final: Kerry 17, Donegal 15 – very lopsided.
“Hammer the hammer” eh?
That set the tone for the game. I remember hearing on radio 1 at the time Murphy was getting elbows into the back etc etc Armagh style. Dermot Early the Kildare star was sat beside me and couldn’t believe it.
Donegal are well able to get stuck in. They are no shrinking violets .
Joe Brolly wrote them off and they won the All Ireland. He is a mouthpiece that craves attention. Give it a rest Joe, nobody cares.
He’s hardly the only one who wrote Kerry off this year, most Kerry people did the same earlier in the year.
Including Spillane.
He has a point. Kerry were definitely infected by the puke football virus last Sunday.
Look, Kerry did what they had to to win the match, playing within the rules. No, it wasn’t a pretty final, but finals are for winning.
If Brolly had said what he did in reference to Pat Spillane’s post-game comments, fair enough, as Spillane was pretty blinkered, as is his wont. But the Kerry camp haven’t come out with any of the haughty comments he seems to attribute to them (unlike in 2004, for instance, when their county chairman claimed that they had restored the “honour” to gaelic football, following their All-Ireland win, which was a clear dig at Armagh and Tyrone).
Brolly makes a lot of personalised comments about amateur sportspeople, who give up their time in persuit of a very noble ambition. He should stick to analysing the game rather than indulging in these theatrics.
The kerry players who won there first all ireland have the same number as joe .
Kerry played football against cork. Footbal against Galway and had 2 amazing open high scoring games against maybe that all including brolly enjoyed. Then kerry play 1 game of this puke football invented by Northern teams over 10 years ago and all of a sudden they are the girl from the exorcist???? Kerry will never play this way again until they meet someone who does. Fight fire with fire. They did what they had to do. Brolly had to write this rubbish because he just had to respond somehow to donaghy. We need some new young fellas in.
U obv didn’t see the 12 men they played with behind ball against cork and mayo can’t comment for Galway didn’t watch Galway game live , tacti all yr was play with jod and 1 other in full forward line
They got a high score against cork alright but they definitely approached the game with a defensive mindset. They had alot of men back behind the ball for most of the game leaving a two man full forward line. Naivety on corks part led to a mountain of open space in between the 20-45 where kerrys superior kick passing came into play.
Donegal played defensively against Dublin and still managed to score 3-14. Kerry kicked some truly woeful wides, especially in the twenty minutes or so after half-time. It was a really poor game, and Kerry played their part in it.
But who cares? I’m sure Fitzmaurice and Donaghy aren’t going to be calling emergency meetings this week to attempt to overhaul their tactics on time for the league. They did what they had to do, and any county supporter would accept that, if the ends justify the means. Kerry are the All-Ireland Champions.
Hopefully the Dubs return to the fore next year mind, with their attacking and creative flare ;)
The cork back line must be fair shite if kerry played 12 men in their own half and still kicked 24 points.
Those rose tinted glasses must be great! Kerry played this year the way they had to plenty of cynical stuff in with the football any team that wants to win an all Ireland have to do it to be fair both teams in the final were guilty of some terrible shooting which made for a terrible match I didn’t feel there was the usual sense of urgency in the match that is typical of finals maybe both teams were guilty of not playing their best football. Maybe the kerry fans should take brolly comment with a pinch of salt and maybe Spillane shouldn’t speak just leave the room quietly when the rest of them aren’t looking
Joe Brolly, the king of bullshit.
Kerry done what was required to win. Fight Puke with Puke(a well known quote).
Something brolly says himself.
What brolly is saying. Don’t get all high and mighty – if u were in Ulster Kerry would be playing that way day in day out. It’s what makes ulster football interesting tactically.
I’m not saying I like it. There are days when it looks amazing (Dublin game) and days when it looks dire.
But u look at Kerry v Mayo – their foul count was huge and they should’ve been black carded more than once. Their foul count was also huge against Donegal. 14-2 at one stage. Trying to rough up Donegal Armagh style.
Suck it up Kerry – you’re down in the mud now.
Fact of the matter is Peter, Kerry are not in Ulster. You do know the Kerry Mayo match went to extra time hence more frees being given. But like you said we’re down in the mud now, if only we had something to console ourselves, like another All-Ireland
There were far more frees. And I seriously don’t mind that if that’s a strategy – but Kerry can’t throw the cynical mud at us just cos we’re in ulster when the game their semi was marred with controversy, dragging and outbreaks of handbags.
Kerry had a gameplan to give frees away out the field and slow the game down against Mayo. It’s a simple strategy that worked.
Agreed. And just like Armagh they overstepped the mark a few times and should’ve got black carded. But hey we all know that ref had a stinker.
I think the boys and girls at RTE have adopted a ‘give him enough rope’ policy when it comes to brolly. His analysis and ott opinions, both positive and negative, are good for ratings as he gets people talking by provocation. He’ll say something eventually that they will have to distance themselves from in order to maintain any credibility with viewers and that’s when he’ll get the boot. A clowns only good for paying if he’s entertaining people……
Brolly is a pointless pundit. He offers no balance in his views and veers from lauding systems to puke football often within minutes. RTE needs a full clearout of some of the relics like Brolly and even Spillane and replace them with more current recently retired players who will have much more insight to offer. They have done it with hurling very successfully with fast eddie and donal og and football with tomas o se in fairness but they need to really move it on now.
Who would you suggest? Eoin Mulligan? or that other bearded tyrone man (can’t remember his name)
When Brolly is on TV people complain and whenever someone else is on the evening show they complain as well
The only thing that needs to be done is to get rid of Mr O’Rourke who sounds like a 90 year old preist and bring in Anthony Tohill again along with Brolly.
He should have his own talk show where he just argues! He amuses me to no end!
Did Joe not say at half time that Kerry were using the correct tactics?
Here is another column by the mighty Joe after Donegal’s excellent win against the Dubs – with the last line “As the Dubs have discovered, and Kerry are about to, he gets inside your head.”
http://gaeliclife.com/2014/09/joe-brolly-nobody-out-smarts-jim-mcguinness/
Ignore him he is only looking for a reaction to keep the muppet in the media spot light
There s no dirt down here, just a shiny canister we ll enjoy the sight off for the winter while drinking a few pints
Why can’t people let it go Kerry are the champs this year they won fair and square they fought puke with puke but people seem to forget the games they gave us before the final tactically they were right in there style of football you have to do what you have to do to win well done Kerry and joe brolly get off your high horse and retire
Totally agree
Bring back ‘Mailbag’ so we can send our letters into Arthur Murphy to complain about Joe Brolly!!
What is brolly implying here? should kerry have tried be noble, attack and leave space for Donegal to exploit on the break, as is the only tooth in their head? why play into their hands, let them attack for once! Liverpool tried playing the right way against chelsea last year and lost the league because Chelsea did what they always do, and what donegal do; counter attack when space opens! no one praising Liverpool…Sometimes fire must be met with Fire! If Kerry played this way all year Id be worried, but we got the best of mayo in two shoot outs!!..think he’s upset because Kerry now have another string to their bow! No more naivety! Cant wait for Tommy Walsh and The gooch to bolster the ranks next year! Ciarrai abu!!
I am not Dublin fan but they would have made light work of this Kerry side if they were in the final
First, Donaghy’s childish swipe in a live interview on international TV and now this from Brolly.
These guys ought to act their age and cop on to themselves.
And if my aunt had balls Mick. ……
Joe brolly get a life
Cynicism is running amok in football and hurling has become the more entertaining sport hence I understand why Brolly would get upset considering he is a man who loves football more than his wife and children.