IRELAND WILL TODAY learn their opponents for the 2026 World Cup qualification campaign – or most of them, at least.
Here’s what you need to know.
When is the draw?
The draw kicks off today at 11am Irish time. It will be streamed live on Fifa.com.
What is Ireland’s seeding situation?
The seeding has been done according to Fifa world ranking, with Ireland landing in Pot Three.
Thus Ireland will be paired with one team from each of pots one, two, and four. They may be drawn with a pot five team too – we will explain that a little later.
What will we need to do to qualify for the World Cup?
We need to top the group to qualify automatically for the World Cup, or finish second to qualify for a play-off. Finishing third or lower means elimination, and missing out on a sixth-straight World Cup.
There will be 12 groups across the qualification campaign: six of these groups will contain four teams, and another six will contain five teams.
Am I right to say Ireland are guaranteed to be drawn into a group of four?
No. That looked like it would be the case, but Fifa have recently tweaked the plans for the draw, so now there is a slight chance that Ireland are landed into a five-team group.
Those in a five-team group will play their qualifiers in March, June, September, October, and November next year.
The four-team groups are a sprint by contrast, and will take place only in September, October, and November.
Ireland manager Heimir Hallgrimsson believes Ireland would be better off in a group of four as it would mean his side would not play qualifiers in June, a window in which they have struggled desperately in recent years.
The June qualifiers kick off on 6 June, more than a month after the end of the Championship season, and so many of Ireland’s players will be rusty by the time the games come around.
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Okay. Who are Ireland’s potential opponents?
Here are the various pots. Ireland will get one each from pots one, two, and four, and potentially one from five, depending on how the draw shakes out.
Pot One: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, France, Croatia, England, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria.
Pot Five: Moldova, Malta, Andorra, Gibraltar, Lichtenstein, San Marino
Well that seems pretty straightforward, no?
It’s not, really. Uefa have decided to expand the Nations League to include games next March, which has greatly complicated matters for this draw.
Ireland are one of 24 teams in this draw who can’t play any World Cup qualifiers next March because they are involved in the Nations League, in their case a relegation play-off against Bulgaria.
Along with these relegation play-offs, the top eight sides from League A of the Nations League are playing quarter-finals next March, with the four winners progressing to the semi-finals, which will be held next June.
Those four winning sides – all in Pot One – will therefore be unable to play World Cup qualifiers in March and June.
Those four sides are thus guaranteed to be put into a four-team group in today’s qualifier draw, but we don’t know their winners yet. Hence the winners of the following four Nations League quarter-final pairings will be guaranteed a four-team group:
Spain/Netherlands
Germany/Italy
Portugal/Denmark
France/Croatia
The losers of these pairings may end up in a four-team group, but are also available to be slotted into a five-team group. In that scenario, they’ll have to play all of their games in June, September, October, and November, without any breaks.
The five-team groups can include only one of the 24 teams involved in the Nations League in March, however, heightening Ireland’s probability of being landed in a four-team group.
But as you’ll have guessed from the above, there’s a chance that Ireland don’t know the final line-up of their group tomorrow: if they get one of the eight Nations League quarter-finalists, they’ll be drawn against the winner or the loser of one of the above ties, and so must wait to March to find out exactly who that opponent is.
TL;DR: Ireland are still more likely to be given a four-team group than not, but it’s no longer a guarantee.
What’s our best and worst case scenario draws?
After the horror of the Euro 2024 draw (France, Netherlands, Greece) Ireland are owed a bit of luck.
Austria are the lowest-ranked side in pot one, but they were super impressive under Ralf Rangnick at Euro 2024 and are a high-energy team on the up. Switzerland look to be one of the kinder options, as are our old pals, Denmark. Croatia and Belgium are among the most consistent teams of the last decade, but are on the wane.
There any number of nightmare options from the top pot: Spain are the European champions but we are in no rush to run into England again, either.
In pot two, Slovakia – in League C of the most recent Nations League – are probably the best option, though Poland are a declining force and are, by the metric of the respected ELO ratings system, the worst side in pot two.
On the other side of things, Norway are showing signs of finally getting their act together, Turkyie were outstanding at the Euros, and for God’s sake, please, we have seen enough of Greece.
Ireland have to beat their pot four opponent home and away to have a realistic chance of qualifying for the World Cup, and the most forbidding opponent here is probably Bulgaria, whom they will face in the Nations League play-off. Travel to Kazakhstan would best be avoided, and Kosovo are one of the better sides in the mix here too. Any of Faroe Islands, Latvia, or Lithuania would be swell.
There are no fearsome opponents in pot five, obviously, but given our preference for a four-team group, it’s best simply not to get any of them.
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Potential opponents and best/worst-case scenario - All the details of today's World Cup qualifier draw
IRELAND WILL TODAY learn their opponents for the 2026 World Cup qualification campaign – or most of them, at least.
Here’s what you need to know.
When is the draw?
The draw kicks off today at 11am Irish time. It will be streamed live on Fifa.com.
What is Ireland’s seeding situation?
The seeding has been done according to Fifa world ranking, with Ireland landing in Pot Three.
Thus Ireland will be paired with one team from each of pots one, two, and four. They may be drawn with a pot five team too – we will explain that a little later.
What will we need to do to qualify for the World Cup?
We need to top the group to qualify automatically for the World Cup, or finish second to qualify for a play-off. Finishing third or lower means elimination, and missing out on a sixth-straight World Cup.
There will be 12 groups across the qualification campaign: six of these groups will contain four teams, and another six will contain five teams.
Am I right to say Ireland are guaranteed to be drawn into a group of four?
No. That looked like it would be the case, but Fifa have recently tweaked the plans for the draw, so now there is a slight chance that Ireland are landed into a five-team group.
Those in a five-team group will play their qualifiers in March, June, September, October, and November next year.
The four-team groups are a sprint by contrast, and will take place only in September, October, and November.
Ireland manager Heimir Hallgrimsson believes Ireland would be better off in a group of four as it would mean his side would not play qualifiers in June, a window in which they have struggled desperately in recent years.
The June qualifiers kick off on 6 June, more than a month after the end of the Championship season, and so many of Ireland’s players will be rusty by the time the games come around.
Okay. Who are Ireland’s potential opponents?
Here are the various pots. Ireland will get one each from pots one, two, and four, and potentially one from five, depending on how the draw shakes out.
Pot One: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, France, Croatia, England, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria.
Pot Two: Ukraine, Sweden, Turkiye, Wales, Hungary, Serbia, Poland, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Norway
Pot Three: Scotland, Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Albania, North Macedonia, Georgia, Finland, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Montenegro, Bosnia, Israel
Pot Four: Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Kosovo, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Lithuania
Pot Five: Moldova, Malta, Andorra, Gibraltar, Lichtenstein, San Marino
Well that seems pretty straightforward, no?
It’s not, really. Uefa have decided to expand the Nations League to include games next March, which has greatly complicated matters for this draw.
Ireland are one of 24 teams in this draw who can’t play any World Cup qualifiers next March because they are involved in the Nations League, in their case a relegation play-off against Bulgaria.
Along with these relegation play-offs, the top eight sides from League A of the Nations League are playing quarter-finals next March, with the four winners progressing to the semi-finals, which will be held next June.
Those four winning sides – all in Pot One – will therefore be unable to play World Cup qualifiers in March and June.
Those four sides are thus guaranteed to be put into a four-team group in today’s qualifier draw, but we don’t know their winners yet. Hence the winners of the following four Nations League quarter-final pairings will be guaranteed a four-team group:
The losers of these pairings may end up in a four-team group, but are also available to be slotted into a five-team group. In that scenario, they’ll have to play all of their games in June, September, October, and November, without any breaks.
The five-team groups can include only one of the 24 teams involved in the Nations League in March, however, heightening Ireland’s probability of being landed in a four-team group.
But as you’ll have guessed from the above, there’s a chance that Ireland don’t know the final line-up of their group tomorrow: if they get one of the eight Nations League quarter-finalists, they’ll be drawn against the winner or the loser of one of the above ties, and so must wait to March to find out exactly who that opponent is.
TL;DR: Ireland are still more likely to be given a four-team group than not, but it’s no longer a guarantee.
What’s our best and worst case scenario draws?
After the horror of the Euro 2024 draw (France, Netherlands, Greece) Ireland are owed a bit of luck.
Austria are the lowest-ranked side in pot one, but they were super impressive under Ralf Rangnick at Euro 2024 and are a high-energy team on the up. Switzerland look to be one of the kinder options, as are our old pals, Denmark. Croatia and Belgium are among the most consistent teams of the last decade, but are on the wane.
There any number of nightmare options from the top pot: Spain are the European champions but we are in no rush to run into England again, either.
In pot two, Slovakia – in League C of the most recent Nations League – are probably the best option, though Poland are a declining force and are, by the metric of the respected ELO ratings system, the worst side in pot two.
On the other side of things, Norway are showing signs of finally getting their act together, Turkyie were outstanding at the Euros, and for God’s sake, please, we have seen enough of Greece.
Ireland have to beat their pot four opponent home and away to have a realistic chance of qualifying for the World Cup, and the most forbidding opponent here is probably Bulgaria, whom they will face in the Nations League play-off. Travel to Kazakhstan would best be avoided, and Kosovo are one of the better sides in the mix here too. Any of Faroe Islands, Latvia, or Lithuania would be swell.
There are no fearsome opponents in pot five, obviously, but given our preference for a four-team group, it’s best simply not to get any of them.
Best-case scenario: Denmark, Slovakia, Ireland, Latvia
Worst-case scenario: Spain, Greece, Ireland, Bulgaria, Moldova
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