HOW TIMES HAVE changed when Ireland head into a clash against the Wallabies with such widespread public expectation that they will win. They’re 12-point favourites in some quarters for tonight’s clash at the Aviva Stadium [KO 8pm, Virgin Media/Amazon].
Back in the 80s and 90s, Ireland couldn’t buy a win against the Aussies. They literally lost to them every single time in those two decades, 11 straight defeats. Slowly but surely, Irish rugby has turned this match-up on its head in the current century.
Ireland have won five of their last seven games against the Wallabies, taking in the memorable World Cup pool-stage victory in 2011 and a series success Down Under back in 2018, the most recent meeting between the sides.
And there is current context to the Irish favouritism. Andy Farrell’s side sit atop the world rankings and are currently on an 11-game winning streak in Dublin. Win today and they equal their best-ever home run of 12 wins. Farrell’s team is seriously hot.
On the other hand, it has been a tough period for the Wallabies. Dave Rennie’s men have won just four of their last 15 games. We know the Rugby Championship is tough but that’s poor going. Last weekend’s first-ever defeat to Italy was a new low, even if it was a second-string Wallabies team. Rennie’s win record now stands at 37%. He’s coming under increasing pressure from the Aussie media.
So it’s not too difficult to understand why Ireland are seen as such strong favourites. And yet, it feels like the kind of game that could be a banana skin. The weather forecast is bad, with rain expected to sweep into Dublin in time for kick-off, and that can be a leveller.
Even without missing players like Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi, Marika Koroibete, Matt Philip, Tom Banks, and Lalakai Foketi, there are threats to Ireland across this Wallabies team, who nearly beat France in Paris two weekends ago when the French were admittedly off their best.
The Wallabies 23 to face Ireland today. Ben Brady / INPHO
Ben Brady / INPHO / INPHO
Experienced halfbacks Nic White and Bernard Foley know how Test rugby works and are part of a much-increased focus on kicking, which was often a weakness for Aussie teams in the past. These Wallabies are happy to stay in long exchanges of kicks, but both White and Foley have creative streaks in their running and passing games too.
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Len Ikitau is a clever outside centre, while the Australian back three includes the exciting Mark Nawaqanitawase, who made his debut last weekend. The 22-year-old wing has acrobatic finishing skills and a strong aerial game.
125-times capped James Slipper has comfortably taken over the captaincy, but the return of Michael Hooper is key too. He has been warming back up to the task after his break and this would be an opportune time to hit his world-class peak. In the second row, 23-year-old Nick Frost has been a breakthrough star.
Any bench that includes the mammoth Will Skelton – such a thorn in Leinster’s side over the last three years – explosive tighthead prop Taniela Tupou, and ultra-dynamic outside back Jordan Petaia needs to be taken very seriously too.
The Wallabies have beaten England, Argentina, South Africa, and Scotland this year as well as being within two points of the All Blacks and France. So there’s plenty there for Farrell to have kept his players on edge with this week.
And yet, this Irish team looks comfortable with expectation surrounding them. Farrell has urged them to embrace being ranked as number one in the world, a status they will relinquish if they lose today. In that event, a win for France against Japan would see them into top spot.
Ireland have their own missing players – James Lowe, Rónan Kelleher, Conor Murray, Robbie Henshaw, and Iain Henderson would have been involved if fully match fit – but there’s a settled look to the team, especially up front. This pack will look to pick up where they left off with a superb performance against the Springboks two weekends ago.
Ireland boss Andy Farrell. Billy Stickland / INPHO
Billy Stickland / INPHO / INPHO
It’s pleasing for Stuart McCloskey that he gets a chance to start for the third consecutive time in this campaign, while Farrell has rewarded Jimmy O’Brien’s impressive impact in Test rugby with another start, this time on the left wing.
O’Brien’s big left boot will be very useful from there, while Mack Hansen might be able to better employ his right-footed kicking from the number 14 shirt while still roaming all over the field in phase play.
As ever, captain Johnny Sexton will make things tick from out-half and we are likely to see Jamison Gibson-Park deliver his best of the autumn with two appearances under his belt after a long injury lay-off.
There’s excitement about 21-year-old lock Joe McCarthy’s debut off the bench for Ireland given that he is such a big, athletic specimen. Meanwhile, Bundee Aki returns eager to make up for lost time in the number 23 shirt.
All in all, Ireland’s position as the firm favourites is deserved, although Farrell and co. know that rugby can throw up unexpected surprises just when things seem to be going so well. That will focus minds sharply.
In front of what should be a raucous full house, Ireland will be determined to end a brilliant 2022 with their most complete performance yet.
Ireland:
15. Hugo Keenan
14. Mack Hansen
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Stuart McCloskey
11. Jimmy O’Brien
10. Johnny Sexton (captain)
9. Jamison Gibson-Park
1. Andrew Porter
2. Dan Sheehan
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Tadhg Beirne
5. James Ryan
6. Peter O’Mahony
7. Josh van der Flier
8. Caelan Doris
Replacements:
16. Rob Herring
17. Cian Healy
18. Finlay Bealham
19. Joe McCarthy
20. Jack Conan
21. Craig Casey
22. Jack Crowley
23. Bundee Aki
Australia:
15. Andrew Kellaway
14. Mark Nawaqanitawase
13. Len Ikitau
12. Hunter Paisami
11. Tom Wright
10. Bernard Foley
9. Nic White
1. James Slipper (captain)
2. David Porecki
3. Allan Alaalatoa
4. Nick Frost
5. Cadeyrn Neville
6. Jed Holloway
7. Michael Hooper
8. Rob Valetini
Replacements:
16. Folau Fainga’a
17. Tom Robertson
18. Taniela Tupou
19. Will Skelton
20. Pete Samu
21. Jake Gordon
22. Noah Lolesio
23. Jordan Petaia
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe [NZR].
- This article was updated at 8.18am to correct ‘four of their last six’ to ‘five of their last seven’ in the third paragraph.
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Ireland's strong favouritism is well-earned but Wallabies still a threat
HOW TIMES HAVE changed when Ireland head into a clash against the Wallabies with such widespread public expectation that they will win. They’re 12-point favourites in some quarters for tonight’s clash at the Aviva Stadium [KO 8pm, Virgin Media/Amazon].
Back in the 80s and 90s, Ireland couldn’t buy a win against the Aussies. They literally lost to them every single time in those two decades, 11 straight defeats. Slowly but surely, Irish rugby has turned this match-up on its head in the current century.
Ireland have won five of their last seven games against the Wallabies, taking in the memorable World Cup pool-stage victory in 2011 and a series success Down Under back in 2018, the most recent meeting between the sides.
And there is current context to the Irish favouritism. Andy Farrell’s side sit atop the world rankings and are currently on an 11-game winning streak in Dublin. Win today and they equal their best-ever home run of 12 wins. Farrell’s team is seriously hot.
On the other hand, it has been a tough period for the Wallabies. Dave Rennie’s men have won just four of their last 15 games. We know the Rugby Championship is tough but that’s poor going. Last weekend’s first-ever defeat to Italy was a new low, even if it was a second-string Wallabies team. Rennie’s win record now stands at 37%. He’s coming under increasing pressure from the Aussie media.
So it’s not too difficult to understand why Ireland are seen as such strong favourites. And yet, it feels like the kind of game that could be a banana skin. The weather forecast is bad, with rain expected to sweep into Dublin in time for kick-off, and that can be a leveller.
Even without missing players like Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi, Marika Koroibete, Matt Philip, Tom Banks, and Lalakai Foketi, there are threats to Ireland across this Wallabies team, who nearly beat France in Paris two weekends ago when the French were admittedly off their best.
Experienced halfbacks Nic White and Bernard Foley know how Test rugby works and are part of a much-increased focus on kicking, which was often a weakness for Aussie teams in the past. These Wallabies are happy to stay in long exchanges of kicks, but both White and Foley have creative streaks in their running and passing games too.
Len Ikitau is a clever outside centre, while the Australian back three includes the exciting Mark Nawaqanitawase, who made his debut last weekend. The 22-year-old wing has acrobatic finishing skills and a strong aerial game.
125-times capped James Slipper has comfortably taken over the captaincy, but the return of Michael Hooper is key too. He has been warming back up to the task after his break and this would be an opportune time to hit his world-class peak. In the second row, 23-year-old Nick Frost has been a breakthrough star.
Any bench that includes the mammoth Will Skelton – such a thorn in Leinster’s side over the last three years – explosive tighthead prop Taniela Tupou, and ultra-dynamic outside back Jordan Petaia needs to be taken very seriously too.
The Wallabies have beaten England, Argentina, South Africa, and Scotland this year as well as being within two points of the All Blacks and France. So there’s plenty there for Farrell to have kept his players on edge with this week.
And yet, this Irish team looks comfortable with expectation surrounding them. Farrell has urged them to embrace being ranked as number one in the world, a status they will relinquish if they lose today. In that event, a win for France against Japan would see them into top spot.
Ireland have their own missing players – James Lowe, Rónan Kelleher, Conor Murray, Robbie Henshaw, and Iain Henderson would have been involved if fully match fit – but there’s a settled look to the team, especially up front. This pack will look to pick up where they left off with a superb performance against the Springboks two weekends ago.
It’s pleasing for Stuart McCloskey that he gets a chance to start for the third consecutive time in this campaign, while Farrell has rewarded Jimmy O’Brien’s impressive impact in Test rugby with another start, this time on the left wing.
O’Brien’s big left boot will be very useful from there, while Mack Hansen might be able to better employ his right-footed kicking from the number 14 shirt while still roaming all over the field in phase play.
As ever, captain Johnny Sexton will make things tick from out-half and we are likely to see Jamison Gibson-Park deliver his best of the autumn with two appearances under his belt after a long injury lay-off.
There’s excitement about 21-year-old lock Joe McCarthy’s debut off the bench for Ireland given that he is such a big, athletic specimen. Meanwhile, Bundee Aki returns eager to make up for lost time in the number 23 shirt.
All in all, Ireland’s position as the firm favourites is deserved, although Farrell and co. know that rugby can throw up unexpected surprises just when things seem to be going so well. That will focus minds sharply.
In front of what should be a raucous full house, Ireland will be determined to end a brilliant 2022 with their most complete performance yet.
Ireland:
Replacements:
Australia:
Replacements:
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe [NZR].
- This article was updated at 8.18am to correct ‘four of their last six’ to ‘five of their last seven’ in the third paragraph.
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