ANDY FARRELL’S IRELAND welcome the defending Six Nations champions Wales to Dublin for their 2022 championship opener on Saturday and the widespread expectation is of a home win.
Wales were within three minutes of winning a Grand Slam last year, denied only by a late France try in Paris, but the team that takes on Ireland this weekend will be much-changed.
Missing due to injury are captain Alun Wyn Jones, hooker Ken Owens, back rows Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi, Taulupe Faletau, and centre George North – all of whom started on that final day of the 2021 Six Nations. That’s a hefty chunk of experience gone from Wayne Pivac’s squad and there are a fair few other absentees.
That’s the starting point when assessing why Ireland are such strong favourites for this weekend’s meeting at the Aviva Stadium.
Wales failed to truly kick on from their 2021 Six Nations title last autumn, when they beat Fiji but lost to South Africa and scraped past 14-man Australia, never hitting similar heights as they had earlier in the year.
Set that against Ireland beating Japan, New Zealand, and Argentina over the autumn playing some excellent rugby, as well as Andy Farrell having most of his best players fit and available for this weekend, and you get a better understanding of the situation.
The pessimism in Welsh rugby has also been fed by their four regions – Scarlets, Ospreys, Cardiff, and Dragons – struggling so far this season. They lost all 11 of the European games they played in the Champions Cup and Challenge Cup pool stages, while the Ospreys in sixth are the highest-placed Welsh side in the United Rugby Championship.
However, we do know for sure that the regions’ poor form has not previously been an indicator of how Wales will perform in the Six Nations, with warnings aplenty of that type coming from Ireland camp. There’s also a sense of self-belief from within the Welsh camp.
“All we can say is that the players we’ve had coming here from the regional game, whatever age and however much experience they’ve got, they have excelled,” says Wales attack coach Stephen Jones.
He also suggests that Wales haven’t been listening to any chat about Ireland’s favouritism for this clash, although one suspects that Pivac and co. are simply loving reading and hearing about their team being written off.
“I haven’t read anything that has come out of the Irish media because I’m so focused on ourselves,” says Jones, not all that convincingly.
Wing Josh Adams is blunter with his response when asked about the low expectations surrounding Wales.
“I don’t think many people expected us to win the championship [last year], did they?” responds the prolific try-scorer. “We’ve got confidence within the group.”
Jones mentions how Wales have an “elite” environment and flags that they have got “world-class players” despite the hefty injury list coming into this Six Nations.
Who is he talking about? Well, a possible back three of Adams, Liam Williams, and 20-year-old sensation Louis Rees-Zammit would be very strong.
Adams has scored 17 tries in 35 Tests, while Rees-Zammit has five in his 10 Wales caps.
“I don’t know if you have seen his finish for Gloucester on the weekend – wow, that’s a hell of a finish and that just sums him up,” says Adams of Rees-Zammit. “One absolute moment of magic and he can carve you up like that.
“There are aspects of our game that we can get better at but his raw credentials of speed, power and finishing ability, I have not seen anybody as good.”
Wales have decent midfield options with Willis Halaholo in line to be fit after a hamstring injury, Nick Tompkins and Owen Watkin in the squad, and 33-year-old Jonathan Davies set to win his 100th Test cap.
Out-half Dan Biggar has taken on a new role as captain, while Tomos Williams is playing superb rugby at scrum-half and Gareth Davies is an experienced option.
Wyn Jones is a top-class loosehead prop, Adam Beard has developed into a complete lock, while the likes of Ellis Jenkins and Taine Basham can do damage from the back row as they fill the boots of more experienced figures.
Wales were the top try-scorers in last year’s Six Nations with 20 – eight more than Ireland – and attack specialist Jones is hoping for more of the same as they get set to go up against an aggressive Irish defence.
Having lost on their last four visits to Dublin, Wales now go in search of a first win at the Aviva since a 2015 World Cup warm-up clash and their first Six Nations victory at the venue since 2012.
“Look at the wealth of talent we have in this group,” says Jones. “It’s about maximising what we have, getting our best players on the ball as often as we can.”
Whatever about being written off, this Wales squad aren’t dropping their own expectations.
“There’s no ‘We can see how it goes, we can build on this’ because we have to win,” says Adams.
“It’s about winning now.”
Dunno about anyone else but all this extreme confidence talk, and slight arrogance/expectancy of a guaranteed result is killing me. Sure, Wales got the rub of the green on more than a few occasions since Pivac took over, and probably haven’t played as attractively as they did under Gats – but write them off at your peril. Sure they’re blighted with injuries, but this stuff, and the likes of Rob Kearney saying he can see a comfortable win just plays into their hands – free motivation. Really would’ve expected better from people who know how cute Wales can be when in the long grass. WalesOnline spreading all this talk across the Irish sea too…
@Ultan Corcoran: spot on, wales never lose by much and area always a tough game. Can’t see this being more then 5 or 6 points either way
@Ultan Corcoran: You’re right. But this is lining up to be such a mismatch, if we cannot beat this Wales team by 10 to 15 minimum, then we aren’t where we thought we were at all.
@Dara: Yeah, feel the same way myself! No more than a score or converted try in it.
@Eoin Roche: I get what you’re saying but it’s a lot to beat a usually very consistent side by.. nonetheless I hope you’re right! Just Wales love nothing more than a big upset.
@Ultan Corcoran: totally agree with you. It’s very poor from ex internationals
@Dara: we beat them 32-9 the last time they came to Dublin. The time before that we beat them 24-14 and 7 of their points came in extra time. On the 80 it was 24-7. Both times Pivac and Farrell were in charge. Since then we’ve kicked on. I’m not sure they have.
If Wales have to play for 80 minutes against 15 players they’ve no chance.
@Paul Harvey: That’s a seemingly very big if!
@Scott Campbell: How?
@Paul Harvey: So you’re saying there’s a chance…
@Eoghan Quinn: yeah, if Murray starts Wales have an even better chance
@Scott Campbell: nah, Peyper is the ref. He has a scary disregard for player welfare.
1.Wyn Jones 2.Ryan Elias 3.Tomas Francis 4.Adam Beard 5.Will Rowlands 6.Ellis Jenkins 7.Taine Basham 8.Aaron Wainwright 9.Tomos Williams 10.Dan Biggar 11.Josh Adams’s 12.Nick Tompkins 13.Jonathan Davies 14.Louis Rees-Zammit 15.Liam Williams.
That’s still a very strong Welsh squad but the way our forwards are playing particularly the front row & backrow & Sexton on form I think we’ll come away with a win.
@Harry O’Callaghan: 16.Bradley Roberts 17.Rhys Carré 18.Leon Brown 19.Seb Davies 20.Ross Moriarty 21.Gareth Davies 22.Gareth Anscombe 23.Uilisi Halaholo.
Ireland bench: 16.Dan Sheehan 17.Cian Healy 18.Finlay Bealham 19.Ian Henderson 20.Peter O’Mahony 21.Conor Murray 22.Joey Carbery/Jack Carty 23.Keith Earls/Andrew Conway/Robert Baloucoune.
Much stronger Irish bench.
Wales were never going to win last time around.
Hopefully the OMG! reactions by the Referee/TMO Cabal that ruined last year’s 6 Nations have matured into keeping players on the pitch.
Good Luck to every team taking part. Thank God its not a Lions year and I can shout at the telly louder!
Why are Ireland such strong favorites? Because we are uniquely delusional supporters, especially before this most unpredictable of tournaments. Only Scots cousins are reliably dafter. Home advantage is huge, but we don’t know how either side will be on the (first) day. After France away, we will know more. Do we often both start and finish well in tournaments? Maybe really good years. I’d love a really good 2023 with RWC in there.