Gavin Cooney

YOU CAN’T ARGUE we aren’t consistent, at least. 

In their fourth Uefa Nations League campaign, Ireland have finished third in their League B group for the fourth-straight campaign. 

Having beaten Finland home and away, Ireland cannot finish bottom of the group, but having already lost to England and twice to Greece, they can’t finish any higher than third, either. 

Ireland secured third spot on the final day of each of their two campaigns against Stephen Kenny, while back in Martin O’Neill’s tenure, Ireland finished bottom of a three-team group. That was meant to bring with it relegation…but Uefa decided to expand League B to a suite of four-team groups and so we were saved on a technicality. 

This year has brought another expansion to the Nations League, and again it may benefit Ireland.

This time, Ireland have to take another step to secure their League B status with a promotion/relegation play-off against a runner-up from League C. The draw to determine their opponents will be held in Nyon on Friday week. 

The draw for the World Cup qualifiers, meanwhile, will take place on 13 December. Ireland will be third seeds in the draw. 

Such is the bloating of the international calendar, Uefa have to run World Cup qualifiers and these new Nations League play-offs at the same time next March, and to work around the tight schedule, they’ve changed the format of the World Cup qualifiers: now there will be 12 groups consisting of either four or five teams each. 

The five-team groups will kick off their qualifying campaign in March, whereas the four-team groups don’t start their campaigns until September. Given Ireland are in Nations League play-off action in March, they are therefore highly likely to be placed in a four-team group. (It’s not an absolute guarantee – the Nations League might shake out such that there are too many teams playing in March to allocate solely to a four-team group, and so we might yet be bumped to a five-teamer.) 

The great advantage to being in a four-team group is the fact that Ireland would not have to pay qualifier games in June, which has lately been a massive problem given so many Irish players ply their trade in the Championship. 

This season’s Championship ends on 3 May, with qualifiers kicking off over a month later, on 6 June. Players’ ring-rust and loss of match sharpness has hampered Ireland over each of the previous two summers. The 2022 Nations League campaign was dead on arrival as Ireland laboured in a 1-0 defeat away to Armenia and followed it up with a home loss to a second-string Ukraine. Perhaps with the benefit of some gametime, Ireland then roused themselves to beat Scotland 3-0 and draw 1-1 against a much stronger Ukraine side. 

Chiedozie Ogbene reacts to a missed chance in Yerevan two years ago. Ryan Byrne / INPHO Ryan Byrne / INPHO / INPHO

Last year, meanwhile, Ireland were fortunate to lose only 2-1 away to Greece in June, despite a lengthy training camp in Antalya. (Another three defeats to the Greeks, mind, showed Ireland’s problems were far from solely physical.) 

“June is always difficult for Ireland because we have so many players in the Championship finishing early May, and that’s a long spell without games”, says Heimir Hallgrimsson.

“I would be happy with [a four-team group]. “It gives us probably two friendlies in June, or more friendlies in June.” 

While England have to beat Ireland tomorrow to guarantee top spot and automatic promotion to League A – therefore likely putting them in a five-team group, and out of Ireland’s path to the World Cup – Ireland have nothing material to play for. 

Hallgrimsson was realistic after Thursday’s victory, admitting Ireland were lucky to win, given the number of chances Finland created and spurned. Caoimhín Kelleher saved a penalty, of course, but Finland also hit the post twice and fluffed a couple of other presentable chances. 

The manager was clear, too, on the root of these Finland chances: an over-enthusiasm from his players to press the ball. Jason Knight and Josh Cullen brought a lot of energy to their performances, but too often they shot toward an opposition player alone, and Finland were able to play around them. 

“We need to be smarter, and find the correct moments to jump”, says Hallgrimsson. 

If England are offered the same opportunities, they won’t be as profligate but, then again, Ireland are highly unlikely to be as aggressive from the off at Wembley, so any fixes to the problems exposed by Finland will only truly be tested in the play-off next March. 

Ireland were aggressive from the off on Thursday night because Hallgrimsson asked them to be. Having analysed the October games against Finland and Greece, he said Ireland played their best football when they fell behind, once they had “nothing to lose.”

And while Ireland’s high-energy performance handed Finland some good chances to score, it did also yield a few chances for Ireland. They had 13 shots in all – with only three on target – which was five more than in both group games against Greece and seven more than Ireland managed at home to England. The best attacking performance of the group so far came away to Finland, in which Ireland had 15 shots with 10 of them on target. (That’s most on-target efforts Ireland have had in a single game since Euro 2016!)

But as Hallgrimsson himself has said, the dynamic of that game was changed by Ireland falling behind as early as the 17th minute. 

This all raises a slightly uncomfortable question: can Ireland sustain attacks and create open-play chances without playing as aggressively as they did on Thursday? Can they increase their attacking output without taking the kinds of risks we saw against Finland? Or is this just going to be a necessary tight-rope walk? And if your goalkeeper is as good as Kelleher…is this actually the pragmatic strategy? 

While Evan Ferguson showed on Thursday just why he is a major talent and is his nation’s most reliable source of goals, he is more of a Lewandowski than a Gareth Bale: his thriving is a little more contingent on those around him; they have to work to  get him on the ball rather than simply give it to him. 

Were Ireland a club side, they would have the time to simply drill themselves better: they could play with the same aggression but become more disciplined and coherent in when to press collectively, and avoid leaving those yawning gaps. But international football is a thief of time, so Ireland won’t have a meaningful opportunity to work on these vital details until next March. 

Ultimately Ireland are still struggling to strike a balance between defensive strength and attacking output, and a game at Wembley even against an under-strength England team won’t be an examination of these efforts: for that we must wait until March.