ONCE THE DUST began to settle and the initial shock had subsided, Ireland supporters started to calculate what exactly the 19-12 defeat to Japan meant for Joe Schmidt’s team.

Realistically the defeat is more of a (big) bump in the road than a hammer blow to Ireland’s World Cup ambitions. Their goal here has always been to get past the quarter-final stages for the first time, and while that task looks more difficult now it is still in their control.

There is every chance that the losing bonus point picked up against Japan will prove significant. Ireland can still collect a total of 16 points by recording bonus point wins against Russia and Samoa.

Japan can take a full haul of 19 points, while Scotland can record a maximum of 15 points. Japan would finish with 17 points should they win their remaining two games without any bonus points. Japan and Scotland don’t play each other until their final pool game on 13 October. If Ireland collect a maximum haul in their final two games then Scotland would not be able to catch them, and their final position in the pool will boil down to that meeting of Japan and Scotland.

Wins against Russia and Scotland would see the hosts top the pool with Ireland in second place. Ireland can still take top spot if Scotland were to beat Japan, while a draw in that game would allow Ireland to qualify in second place. Ireland would also finish first if Japan collected a losing bonus point in defeat to Scotland, while Japan would benefit from the head-to-head record should they finish on the same points as Ireland.

The worst possible outcome for Ireland is that failure to secure bonus points against Russia and Samoa would leave them vulnerable to being knocked out.

The most likely outcome now is that Ireland will forge a path to a quarter-final meeting with New Zealand, who are expected to top Pool B, in Tokyo on 19 October. Before the Japan defeat, Ireland had been favourites to top Pool A and advance to a quarter-final clash with South Africa, who are in line to finish second in Pool B, on 20 October.

And while South Africa appeared to be the more favourable quarter-final draw, there are pros and cons to either possibility.

If Ireland were to top Pool A and play South Africa, they would have four days less to prepare for the game than Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks. South Africa conclude their Pool B campaign against Canada on Tuesday, 8 October, while Ireland are in action against a hugely physical Samoa team the following Saturday. 

A New Zealand v Ireland quarter-final would see both teams afforded a full week between their final pool game and the start of the knock-out stages.

Furthermore, Joe Schmidt had openly discussed how the addition of Felix Jones to the South Africa coaching ticket presented an “awkward” situation for Ireland.

Jones, who retired due to injury at the age of 29, was regularly involved with Ireland squads under Schmidt and was invited to join the coaching party for their tour of the USA and Japan two years ago. His inside knowledge of the Irish set-up would prove hugely valuable for Erasmus in any potential clash with Ireland, while Erasmus himself also has the inside line thanks to his time with Munster.

The reaction to Saturday’s loss to Japan also serves as a reminder of how quickly the perceived health of a team can change. Just six days previously, Ireland were being lauded for the manner of the win against a poor Scotland team. Now they find themselves facing an internal inquest after one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.

It is also worth remembering that before the pool stages kicked-off, some pundits voiced their belief that Ireland would be better off facing New Zealand rather than South Africa in the quarter-finals.

Speaking on eir Sport, Eimear Considine said that Ireland’s recent history against the All Blacks suggested they might be the more favourable opponent, while Peter Stringer added that he would rather face Steve Hansen’s side in the quarter-finals then meet them further down the line. 

It is possible that the most telling damage from the Japan defeat is the mental impact on the players. They know they have under-performed on the biggest stage and come out on the wrong side of a result that will live long in World Cup history.

They now have just five days shake themselves down and prepare for the game with Russia. 

Schmidt will likely be forced into a number of changes for that game. Many of his players looking exhausted as the game wore on against Japan, and the makeshift backline in the closing stages underlined the extent of his injury woes. Jack Conan will return to Ireland after fracturing his foot in training during the week, while Rob Kearney failed a HIA 1 against Japan.

Regardless of the limp display against the Brave Blossoms, Ireland will still be fully expected to get the required results in their final two pool games and book their place in the quarter-finals.

But as we learned yesterday, that may be easier said than done.