TO SIT THROUGH the recently-released Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet is a slightly confusing experience.
Those iconic songs are there, and everyone involved looks and sounds the part. You leave the cinema wanting more, while questioning what you’ve actually seen. Did Dylan’s former girlfriend really break up with him on the eve of his famed performance at the Newport Folk Festival? Did Johnny Cash really give him a pre-gig pep-talk side of stage? Does any of that matter when the story is so compelling?
At Aviva Stadium this evening the red carpet rolls out for another ‘Complete Unknown’. The England rugby team roll into town as a potentially dangerous opponent still searching for an identity.
England’s win over Ireland at Twickenham last year – complete with Hollywood ending from the boot of Marcus Smith – was meant to be the start of something. Big players had big games. Twickenham was bouncing again. But could we believe what we were seeing?
As it happened, 2024 verged on becoming a horror show. After the Ireland game England only won twice (both v Japan) and ended the year having lost seven of their 12 Tests. It wouldn’t have taken much to swing a couple of those, with England’s losing margin never greater than nine points, but when close calls become a trend you have to wonder how that might play on the mind. All of this has happened while the RFU faces revolt and the Premiership teams leak tries for fun in the Champions Cup.
So what do we actually know of this England team? Are they a squad making slow and steady progress under Steve Borthwick, or one careering dangerously close to a full on crisis? Does any of that matter ahead of today’s Six Nations meeting with Ireland? [KO 4.45pm, Virgin Media One]
In Twickenham last year England summoned a performance few saw coming, and the visitors will feel they can do similar today. Borthwick made the right call in appointing Maro Itoje as his new captain. The lock was hampered by an undiagnosed underlying health issue in recent years but looks revitalised and has the Lions captaincy in his sights. Ireland’s Caelan Doris is his primary challenger for that role so the pair will be determined to make a statement as they share the pitch.
Cadan Murley is a surprise inclusion in the England backline but Ireland will be wary of the winger’s close relationship with his Harlequins teammate Marcus Smith, who was wonderful in November and keeps his place at 10.
The selection of Tom and Ben Curry in the back row – the twins starting a Test together for the first time – is also instructive of where England feel they can hurt Ireland. They want to tackle the hosts’ athleticism head-on, and with Ben Earl named at number eight Borthwick has selected three dynamic players who will look to disrupt Ireland’s breakdown. That is hardly a state secret. Borthwick has called for referee Ben O’Keefe to be vigilant and ensure Ireland stay ‘within the laws’.
England will look at Ireland and see a team who can hit great heights but only did so fleetingly last year; Marseille on the championship’s opening weekend, the second Test in South Africa.
Ireland were clearly frustrated with how their November window went and the opportunity to create history in this Six Nations should prove invigorating. No team has ever won three Six Nations titles in a row, and Ireland’s chance to do that comes in a year where both England and France travel to Dublin.
Andy Farrell’s absence changes the dynamic but could freshen up the camp in forcing other voices to become more prominent. Simon Easterby and Co will be encouraged by the form of key individuals. Caelan Doris and Josh van der Flier are at the peak of their powers and James Ryan is back to his imposing best. Garry Ringrose has added a mean edge to his defensive work and Hugo Keenan has slipped straight back into form following injury. Tadhg Beirne has been immense for Munster and Bundee Aki is backed to bring his muscle to the Ireland midfield.
Then there’s Sam. The selection at out-half will continue to force debate but Ireland are happy to go into this Six Nations with a 21-year-old out-half in the saddle. We’ve seen the talent – the smart hands, the little flicks, those pinpoint kicks for the touchline – but at some stage this championship will likely serve Prendergast with a dose of Test-level adversity. Since pushing his way into the Leinster team Prendergast has only lost a handful of URC games. When it comes to Champions Cup and senior international rugby, he’s yet to end up on the losing side. Today marks just his third start at Test level so those lessons are coming down the line.
Jack Crowley will be frustrated to start on the bench but if the Ireland coaches can manage the pair correctly, the option of having two quality 10s in the matchday squad could allow for a transformative one-two punch.
The heft of Tadhg Furlong and Joe McCarthy will be missed in the pack but McCarthy’s absence leaves the team with three strong lineout options in the form of James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne and Ryan Baird. The lineout remains the big question mark over this Irish team and so that trio have a hugely important role to play.
Baird’s inclusion is Easterby’s most interesting selection. At 25, the Leinster player is at the stage where he must be aiming to shake the word ‘potential’ from his name. While he debuted for Ireland four years ago, this is just his seventh start at Test level. He brings obvious athletic gifts alongside an improved sense of authority around the lineout. The task now is to marry the two consistently rather than peppering his performances with impactful moments.
Jamison Gibson-Park remains key if Ireland are to play with the pace and accuracy they desire. England unexpectedly lost defence coach Felix Jones last summer and it will be fascinating to see how Ireland look to pick apart Joe El-Abd’s system, and how often they go to the air with their kicking game. England conceded 14 tries in their four November internationals and appear to be preparing for a shift away from the blitz approach.
On the Ireland bench there is power and punch in the form of Jack Conan, Dan Sheehan and Robbie Henshaw, while Iain Henderson will be keen to improve on his frustrating November showings. England’s bench is light on Test experience but a 6/2 split suggests we could be in for a bruising finish.
Ireland don’t need to be at their best to beat this England team and the Dublin factor is significant – Ireland have lost just two of their last 29 home games in the Six Nations. That said, they will need to improve on their November work if they are to avoid an uncomfortable evening. England are a work in progress but will sense blood if Ireland are in any way off the pace.
History is on the line for Ireland this year, and after a November which left their audience questioning what they saw, it’s time for this team to deliver their message loud and clear. They should get that job done.
IRELAND: Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Rónan Kelleher, Finlay Bealham; James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne; Ryan Baird, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Dan Sheehan, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, Iain Henderson, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Robbie Henshaw.
ENGLAND: Freddie Steward; Tommy Freeman, Ollie Lawrence, Henry Slade, Cadan Murley; Marcus Smith, Alex Mitchell; Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan-Dickie, Will Stuart; Maro Itoje, George Martin; Tom Curry, Ben Curry, Ben Earl.
Replacements: Theo Dan, Fin Baxter, Joe Heyes, Ollie Chessum, Chandler Cunningham-South, Tom Willis, Harry Randall, Fin Smith.
Referee: Ben O’Keefe (NZR)
IMO Marcus Smith is second to DuPont in the 10 role in NH / 6N. He is capable of dominating a game and playing like a man possessed with only winning in mind…. Hoping he has a nightmare … and sees little time to show off his skills….
@Den: he hasn’t proven that yet tho…maybe you mean is potentially
@Den: I would not compare DuPont and M. Smith. There’s no half back in the world that comes close to the frenchman. He’s simply at a totally different level
@Den: is there actual evidence to back this up? I haven’t seen it. Good player, flashy, but nothing substantive done yet.