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Ireland and Munster out-half Jack Crowley. Billy Stickland/INPHO

Sexton succession and how Irish rugby's 10 stocks shape up

Jack Crowley is the favourite to be wearing number 10 for the Six Nations.

IT’S GOING TO be different and it might not be totally smooth at the start, but the new era at out-half for Ireland will certainly be intriguing.

Gone is 119 Ireland caps worth of experience in Johnny Sexton, whose class was key in two Grand Slam wins and helped him to the World Rugby player of the year award in 2018.

Maybe his successor or successors won’t reach the same heights but there is clearly talent in this position in Irish rugby. Jack Crowley is the favourite to be wearing number 10 for the 2024 Six Nations opener against France in Marseille on Friday 2 February, particularly given that his rival, Ross Byrne, has just been injured.

Byrne could be sidelined for a while with his unfortunate bicep injury. The Leinster man was the other Irish out-half at the recent World Cup, starting the pool game against Tonga. Crowley was the bench option behind Sexton for the big games against South Africa, Scotland, and New Zealand. 

With Byrne now out of action, the path is clear for Crowley to continue his impressive upward trajectory and take over from Sexton at number 10 in Andy Farrell’s Ireland team. That said, it could be a battle that takes a while to be decided.

There are plenty of other out-halves in Irish rugby who have Test caps. Leinster’s Harry Byrne was once viewed by Farrell and co. as the big prospect in this position, the versatile Ciarán Frawley was in the mix as a 10 in autumn of last year, Ulster man Billy Burns featured in the early Farrell years, and the relentlessly unlucky Joey Carbery has started some big games under Farrell.

There are also emerging young playmakers like the highly-regarded Sam Prendergast who the IRFU will hope to see continue to progress in the coming seasons. 

Munster:

  • Jack Crowley [23]
  • Joey Carbery [28]
  • Tony Butler [21]
  • Dylan Hicks [18]

joey-carbery-goes-past-toby-arnold-his-way-to-scoring-his-sides-second-try Joey Carbery has won 37 caps for Ireland. James Crombie / INPHO James Crombie / INPHO / INPHO

At the start of last season, Crowley wasn’t Munster’s first-choice out-half. Carbery was still the main man and with Ben Healy also on the scene, Crowley was getting starts at both fullback and inside centre.

Even towards the end of the season, Crowley was named at inside centre for the URC semi-final against Leinster, with Healy starting at 10. But Healy got injured, Crowley shifted to out-half and his nerveless drop-goal sent Munster into the final.

Now, there’s no doubt whatsoever about Crowley’s status as the top dog in Munster. Carbery will be sidelined for the next few months by another cruel injury, while Healy has moved on to Scotland. But Crowley has earned his first-choice berth. 

Mature and skillful, the 23-year-old has also shot up the Ireland pecking order and became the back-up out-half to Sexton at the World Cup. He will be intent on now taking over as the starting number 10 for the Six Nations.

Carbery started a game for Ireland as recently as November 2022 and appeared to be as an important part of the Farrell set-up but he has fallen completely out of the mix since. His latest injury has killed any shot at redemption for now and his Munster contract expires at the end of this season. Carbery only turned 28 at the start of this month, so will surely feel he still has plenty of good rugby ahead of him. 

That injury means academy out-half Tony Butler has moved up the pecking order now, with the Ennis man doing well on his first start for the province earlier this month and then enjoying a cameo off the bench last weekend against Leinster.

Munster have another academy out-half in Dylan Hicks, who joined straight out of school and is still only 18. He came through Bantry Bay RFC and Colaiste Pobail Bheanntraí, as well as playing for the Ireland U18 Schools, and is seen as one for the future. 

Inside centre Rory Scannell covers out-half, while fellow midfielder Antoine Frisch has also played at 10 before.

Leinster:

  • Ross Byrne [28]
  • Harry Byrne [24]
  • Sam Prendergast [20]
  • Ciarán Frawley [25]
  • Charlie Tector [21]

ross-byrne Ross Byrne was injured last weekend. Bryan Keane / INPHO Bryan Keane / INPHO / INPHO

Sexton’s retirement also opens up the number 10 shirt at Leinster, where there is a crop of highly ambitious out-halves battling it out for supremacy.

Ross Byrne has earned the trust of Leinster boss Leo Cullen and delivered for his province many times before, so he will feel that this is his time to truly take ownership of the side. Unfortunately for him, Byrne suffered that bicep injury against Munster last weekend and is set for a spell out of action.

The versatile Frawley came on for Byrne in impressive fashion in that game but he has predominantly played at inside centre and fullback at senior level for Leinster. He has stated his desire to feature at out-half but his quality in other positions has been very useful for Cullen and co. Frawley was part of Ireland’s wider World Cup squad over the course of the summer and made his debut at out-half against Italy, having played at number 10 for Ireland’s midweek team in New Zealand in 2022.

This is all complicated because there are two other senior out-halves who Leinster rate highly. 24-year-old Harry Byrne appears to have put his injury travails behind him and it’s worth remembering how high up he was in the Ireland pecking order at one stage.

Around that time in 2021/22, Byrne was ahead of his brother in the Ireland coaches’ eyes, although perhaps more so in terms of potential. Byrne won two Ireland caps in the summer of 2021 but hasn’t featured since.

The new man on the scene is 20-year-old Prendergast, who was outstanding for the Ireland U20s as they won a Grand Slam and reached the World Cup final this year. He made his senior Leinster debut last season and has played four times already this season. It doesn’t look like Leinster are going to hold him back and his ability is clear.

The eastern province even have another talented out-half in their academy in Charlie Tector, who won a Grand Slam with the Ireland U20s in 2022. The Wexford man has already made seven senior appearances and will be aiming for more this season.

Indeed, a little like their ridiculous back row options, it’s hard to see how Leinster can keep all of their out-halves happy, even if Frawley is playing elsewhere. But as we know, Cullen and co. have a knack of balancing it all out.

Connacht:

  • Jack Carty [31]
  • JJ Hanrahan [31]
  • Harry West [20]
  • Sean Naughton [19]

jack-carty-with-ben-healy Carty is set for his 200th Connacht cap. Craig Watson / INPHO Craig Watson / INPHO / INPHO

More than a decade on from his senior debut, Carty is still a pivotal figure for the western province. The Connacht captain will make his landmark 200th appearance for them if he features against Leinster this weekend in Galway.

Carty has unfinished business with Ireland. Capped 11 times and part of the 2019 World Cup squad, he has ambitions of breaking back into the squad. He has only played once in the Farrell era, coming on for the closing minutes of a Six Nations game against France in 2022 when Sexton was injured and Carbery started, so Carty has ground to make up.

He has competition for his place in Connacht too, with the experienced JJ Hanrahan having joined from the Dragons. Ex-Munster man Hanrahan has also had spells with Northampton and Clermont, as well as a stint back at Munster in between those two.

Hanrahan was a nominee for the World Rugby U20 player of the year award in 2012 after shining for the Ireland U20s but doesn’t have any senior caps. He would be coming from a long way back to get into the mix under Farrell, but his focus will be on adding to Connacht’s season.

The Connacht senior squad also includes centres David Hawkshaw, Cathal Forde, and Tom Daly, all of whom can play at out-half. Forde is making a name for himself in midfield at present, while Hawkshaw is at his best there too, but it’s handy to have those options.

Connacht’s academy features two promising out-halves in Harry West, who was part of the brilliant Ireland U20s squad this year, and Sean Naughton, who is vying for a place with the Ireland U20s in 2024.

Ulster:

  • Billy Burns [29]
  • Jake Flannery [24]
  • James Humphreys [22]

billy-burns Burns featured for Ireland in 2020 and 2021. James Crombie / INPHO James Crombie / INPHO / INPHO

Burns was involved for Ireland in the earlier days of Farrell’s reign, earning seven caps, but he hasn’t featured since the summer of 2021 as others have moved up the pecking order.

The 29-year-old remains a trusted operator at number 10 for Ulster where he has been first-choice since arriving in 2018. Burns possesses great attacking kicking skills and is a resilient, hard-working presence, meaning Dan McFarland rates him.

However, Burns is dealing with the growing challenge from Jake Flannery, a product of Munster who moved to Ulster in 2022. The Tipperary man won a Grand Slam with the Ireland U20s in 2019, playing at fullback, but struggled for game time with Munster.

His first season in Ulster wasn’t much better in terms of opportunity but he has already made three starts in the current campaign, showing off his instinctive skills and determination. 24-year-old Flannery was part of the Emerging Ireland tour last year, so he has had exposure to the national team coaches too.

Ulster’s academy includes out-half James Humphreys, the son of incoming IRFU performance director David. The 22-year-old was capped by the Ireland U20s in 2021 but has yet to get his first Ulster appearance. 

Senior team fullback Mike Lowry has plenty of experience as an out-half although his most recent start there for Ulster was in April 2022. Some fans have long expected the 25-year-old to make a move to the number 10 shirt but it hasn’t happened yet. Lowry’s only start so far this season was on the right wing.

Centre Angus Curtis can cover out-half, while scrum-half Nathan Doak can also play there. He started a game at number 10 last season and moved to out-half for 60 minutes of last weekend’s defeat to Glasgow after injuries for Burns and Flannery.

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For earlier articles in this series, click the links below.

Loosehead prop

Hooker

Tighthead prop 

Second row

Back row

Scrum-half 

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