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Suaalii starts for the Wallabies. Andrew Fosker/INPHO

Suaalii's explosive threat and why the lineout is so key for Ireland

Both teams are likely to have smart plans for their set-piece attack today.

AS JOSEPH SUAALII soared to contest the Wallabies’ restarts on his debut against England earlier this month, anyone who hadn’t seen him play rugby league got an instant illustration of the 21-year-old’s freakish leaping power.

It’s no exaggeration to suggest that Suaalii may have the greatest jumping power of any player in rugby union.

Ireland’s planning for today’s clash with the Australians will certainly have involved some discussion around how they can limit Suaalii’s aerial impact.

The new directive to referees to remove ‘escorting’ from the game means aerial contests have been back in a big way this autumn and Ireland have yet to deliver a convincing performance in this area of the game. 

They have had a few big wins over their own – witness Hugo Keenan reclaiming a restart against Argentina – but they’ll be determined to have greater control over the aerial battle against a Wallabies side led by the remarkably athletic Suaalii.

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Above, we see the Wallabies’ first restart during their win over England, with Suaalii soaring above Maro Itoje to win the ball back.

England immediately adjusted their set-up for restart receipts, essentially giving Itoje more scope to come onto the ball, but Suaalii kept competing.

He won back two more Wallabies restarts during the game and then, with England ahead and only 40 seconds left, Suaalii forced an error from Itoje to give the Wallabies one last chance.

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The Wallabies scored the winning try from the ensuing scrum with the clock in the red.

Ireland will have planned for the Wallabies using short restarts to get Suaalii into the game, but the Australians’ overall kicking strategy will be intriguing.

Schmidt is an expert in the area of kicking and it would be no surprise if he has come up with other ways to bring Suaalii’s leaping power to the fore. 

Suaalii’s ball-carrying is explosive too, while he has defended well in his first three appearances for the Wallabies, presumably helped by the fact that so many attacking shapes in union have been copied from league. 

Ireland have their own aerial weapons in the likes of fullback Hugo Keenan and outside centre Robbie Henshaw so expect this to be a key area of the contest today.

Irish defence coach Simon Easterby is likely to have been a busy man in recent weeks, assessing how Schmidt’s Wallabies have been attacking from set-pieces.

As Irish rugby knows well, the lineout is the key launchpad for the brilliant power plays that Schmidt specialises in.

His eye for possible weaknesses in the opposition defence helps him to create mapped-out attacks over the course of two, three, or four phases from lineouts and there’s no doubt Ireland will be on high alert for such plays. 

All the more so given they were stung by the All Blacks from 60 metres out in last year’s World Cup quarter-final play when Schmidt was an assistant coach for the Kiwis.

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Will Jordan’s try was another example of Schmidt’s creativity with set-piece attack.

The Wallabies have used kicks as part of their set-piece attack on a few occasions recently, although without consistent success.

Take this effort from a scrum against Scotland last weekend.

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Inside centre Len Ikitau chips straight off the scrum close to the Wallabies’ tryline but overhits his kick and the Scots get a chance to counter, leading to three points when they win a penalty.

Still, it shows that Schmidt’s Australia are looking to throw unexpected plays at defences. 

The predominant portion of tries in rugby come from the lineout and Ireland, like the Wallabies, are a team who thrive from this possession source.

Indeed, seven of Ireland’s 12 tries this autumn have originated at lineouts in the opposition 22, with two tries coming from scrums in the 22, and another two from five-metre penalty tap plays.

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That’s 11 of Ireland’s 12 tries coming from set-piece platforms in the opposition 22, with Mack Hansen’s score against Argentina the outlier, coming on sixth phase of a sweeping attack off a restart reception in Ireland’s half.

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One could suggest Ireland have become reliant on their close-range set-piece attack or view it more positively as evidence that backs coach Andrew Goodman – who is in charge of the starter plays from lineout and scrums – is working well with forwards coach Paul O’Connell, who leads the five-metre plays and has a big influence on lineout attack.

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The Wallabies would have been disappointed with their defensive effort against Scotland last time out.

The first Scottish try from Sione Tuipulotu involved a deliberate overthrow to find the centre thundering at the line.

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It looks like Tuipulotu may be within 10 metres of the lineout before the throw, which would be offside, but the tackle effort from wing Andrew Kellaway and centre Ikitau would have been disappointing for the Australians. 

The Scots’ second try came on the end of a multi-phase attack and Ireland will have noted how the Wallabies looked fatigued when the ball stayed in play for long periods.

One of Ireland’s longstanding strengths has been their ability to hold the ball for extended passages of phase-play so they will be keen to test the Aussie’s endurance in their final game of a long year.

It was interesting to see Scotland break the Wallabies with a disguised inside pass on second phase of a lineout attack for their fourth try.

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While Wallabies lock Lukhan Salakaia-Loto will probably have felt he should still have made the tackle on Duhan van der Merwe here, he has to adjust to the changing picture late.

As we discussed a few months ago, these disguised inside pass plays are back in vogue after Ireland had two major successes against the Springboks in July.

Funnily enough, the Wallabies are among the other teams to have used this pass in 2024, so it will be fascinating to see if either of today’s sides pull it out of their bag of tricks.

Today’s clash in Dublin is one that will be driven by lots of powerful coaching intellect. It should be a lot of fun.

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