JOE SCHMIDT HAS unveiled his team for Saturday’s meeting of the world’s first and second ranked teams, with Ireland’s starting XV for the All Blacks here.
Below, we take a closer look at the key selection decisions.
Four changes
This was, by in large, an as predicted selection from Schmidt, as the loss of Robbie Henshaw, Seán O’Brien and Conor Murray earlier in the week simplified the equation to a degree.
Three of his four changes were injury-enforced while the return of Devin Toner for Iain Henderson was as expected, given the manner in which the lineout misfired against Argentina last week.
Rob Kearney’s return from the shoulder injury which forced him out of the games against Italy and the Pumas earlier in this autumnal programme is a major fillip, particularly when you consider the 32-year-old’s experience and composure in the air.
Similarly, the fit-again Ringrose comes back into the Ireland midfield and his presence in the 13 shirt is equally reassuring, with the Leinster centre adding more balance to Schmidt’s attacking game as well as his ability to marshal the outside channels.
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Henshaw’s absence with the hamstring injury he pulled up with last week heightened the importance of Ringrose’s fitness, as the 23-year-old resumes his Grand Slam-winning partnership with Bundee Aki.
From that game in Twickenham last St Patrick’s Day, there are just two changes in personnel with Toner in ahead of Iain Henderson and Kieran Marmion deputising for Murray at scrum-half.
This was very much Schmidt reverting to the tried and trusted.
The second row conundrum
Outstanding off the bench last weekend, Dan Leavy left no doubt over the identity of Ireland’s openside this week, but one of Schmidt’s big headaches was in the uber-competitive second row department.
Toner, who has played in 55 of Schmidt’s 60-game reign — the most of any player — saw his stock rise last week as the lineout malfunctioned against the Pumas, and after restoring calm to the situation off the bench, the Meath native wins his 63rd cap this weekend.
The Leinster second row is arguably the most undervalued, and perhaps under-appreciated, player in the squad — as evidenced last weekend — and his experience and organisation at the set-piece will be crucial.
Not only will Ireland need to be firing on all cylinders in this area if they are to record a first home win over the All Blacks, they will need to nullify the threat of Brodie Retallick, who caused havoc at Twickenham last weekend.
Henderson, consistently excellent and regularly performing to a world-class standard, is unlucky to be dropped to the bench, but Toner’s status as a ball-winner — both at lineouts and restarts — is absolutely pivotal to the way Ireland play.
A word, too, for Tadhg Beirne who again misses out completely. The Munster lock/back row’s omission demonstrates the incredible strength in depth which exists within Schmidt’s squad, but is harsh nonetheless.
Bench firepower
Schmidt revealed he left it until the last minute on Thursday morning to finalise his 23 for Saturday, but didn’t go as far to say which positions he was uncertain over — but no doubt there were difficult calls regarding the bench.
As captain, Rory Best was always going to retain his starting berth but the Ulster hooker is being pushed by Niall Scannell, Rob Herring and Sean Cronin, the latter getting the nod to add firepower off the bench on Saturday.
Dave Kilcoyne appears to be getting closer at loosehead but again it is Andrew Porter and Jack McGrath tasked with adding muscle to the equation in the second half, while Henderson can cover both the second and back row.
Josh van der Flier, who started against Italy, is the replacement flanker ahead of Jordi Murphy and Rhys Ruddock — both of whom were heavily involved in this morning’s session — while Luke McGrath has to settle for a replacement role again.
Jack Conan is among those left out completely, and Jordan Larmour’s X-Factor saw him beat Andrew Conway and Will Addison to the number 23 jersey.
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Good old Kearney has made a career out of silencing his critics for them to stay silent for about 12 hours only to pipe up again and call time on his career again, now it’s Toner’s turn, too. Dev is not going to wow anyone with miracle footwork to get around Ardie Savea before beating Beauden Barrett for pace and throwing a behind the back offload for a try, but he is one of the most important people in that Irish 23 who can dictate the winning or losing of Saturday’s match.
@Paddington C.: I don’t disagree with what you’re saying but there is a serious, non-player related consideration. Selection of Toner by Ireland may dictate in part how NZ play. The may opt not to kick the ball out much at all and play a more possession based game in which case turnovers are of more importance than lineout ability which would be a game better suited to Beirne’s skill set. The converse also applies.
@Phil O’ Meara: yeah, it goes both ways. But if they do do that and there is more ball in play time then you need a rucking machine like Toner, too. So it is win win, even if Toner is less likely to poach the ball. And you still have O’Mahony to pull off a bit of O’Mahony magic. Possession stats is going to be one of the key proxy wars regardless. But listen, when Beirne finally does get his chance and starts being picked consistently you won’t hear me complaining.
@Paddington C.: you also have the fact that Leavy and VdF provide extra turnover options with O’Brien not being selected and there’s plenty of carrying power still in the squad. Beirne was only ever in contention for the bench slot, a couple of tries against an absolutey woeful Italy side has not confirmed him as a top class International. Joe knows 100% what he’s going to get from the guys he’s selected against this oppo, Beirne isn’t at that level yet. Larmour is the exception, the X factor choice you expect in the backs that could really hurt a tiring NZ in the last quarter….
I wont lie. Uts a strong team but not the strongest. Cruel to leave out Beirne first of all. Hes made a massive impact and were he selected hed be petfect. Im not confident in either Hendo or Toner.
And i may be the only one but I just dont see much benefit havi g Kearney in the team. Hes half a fullback tto me. Strong in one area but very weak in another. It highlights that fullback is an issue that needs to be addressed.
I dont think rhis team will beat NZ.
@Gavin Mitchell: thank you for your honesty Gavin
@Gavin Mitchell: Dev will truck away around the field, hit rucks, make a few tackles and catch everything in the line out… job done on his part.
RK is the safest option and a good steady pair of hands at 15.
If Marmion can hold his own against Smith and we do well at the set piece & ruck, we’re in with a good shout.
@Gavin Mitchell: I think this post is a good example of the old cliche ‘there is none so blind as those who won’t see’.
I’m not saynig they’ll win us the game and nobody can even guarantee they’ll play well, but if you can’t see the logic of starting Toner and Kearney after what happened last week then I don’t know what to say.
@Gavin Mitchell: then you don’t think any team would beat NZ.
@Gavin Mitchell: not confident in toner?? I’m sorry but when has he ever let Ireland down. And after our lineout disaster last week he becomes our most important player this week. As good as Beirne is lineout is his weakness. The all blacks are targeting lineouts now so toner is essential. Hendo impact sub
@Oval Digest: you could say to them they know nothing about rugby. I can t believe people still question when Kearney starts. Its so ignorant
@Oval Digest: im going to hazard a guess that if they were Munster players Gavin would only be delighted that they were in the team. A blind man can see that Kearney is the best option
@Sam Harms: That is absolutely incorrect Sam. I wouldn’t have a problem with the fact that many Leinster players are in the starting 15. I understand fully why they are there, because they make up an almost unstoppable Leinster team. That’s fine with me. If a Munster player I wasn’t fond of was starting I wouldn’t want him in the team.
Im not as red tinted as you may think Sam. Just keep that in mind.
@Oval Digest: The point I am making Oval is that while the team is strong, there is one thing I am seeing that many aren’t. We’re very organized, but we’re also very rigid. There’s no attacking flair there. Kearney fails badly in this department because he doesn’t make or create space. He just runs directly at the opposition. Is that what you want from a fullback?
This was a case in point 2 years ago. We scored NO tries against NZ. We relied heavily upon their ill-discipline, because up to that point, we were struggling to break down their defense and made little to no line breaks until later on in the game, when JVDF made at least one.
We’re too rigid, and lack a degree of flexibility in attack. Though hopefully with Carbery off the becnh, that may change.
My point is, we have no ATTACK plan.
@Fred McHugh: What’s ignorant about it Fred? Am I not allowed to give constructive criticism? Even you must know Kearney is NOT a complete fullback, because there are things he should do that he doesn’t.
@Gavin Mitchell: gavin I get what youre saying but larmour was poor full back v the argies. Kearney is much more solid defensively, something JS looks at. Best was brutal last week and is still there. Many I spoke to said Henderson was poor, yet he’s on the bench. We had no line breaks against Argentina and that’s a huge worry unless something was been held back
@Gavin Mitchell: Well you just showed yourself up by saying ‘we have no ATTACK plan.’ This Ireland team are renowned for having one of the most complicated attacking structures in the world.
We don’t have line-breakers in the mould of Lomu, Savea, Naholo, Ioane, but we have a very very clear attacking plan and it works. It is not flashy but International rugby isn’t all flash.
Look up Ben Smith’s analysis of Ireland’s attacking structure on RugbyPass.
@Andrew Corrigan: we had no attacking plan last week or else stuff was kept in reserve. I hope it’s the latter.
There’s a degree of writer bias or inconsistency here. He states that “Josh VDF is the replacement back row ahead of Rhys Ruddock and Jordi Murphy” In another line he says “Luke McGrath has to settle for the replacement role again”
Why not make this positive and say that Luke McGrath makes the bench ahead of John Cooney?
@Phil O’ Meara: an utterly ridiculous post
@Phil O’ Meara: I think that would be a varied writing style rather than an inconsistency…
Really not confident in Larmour if he plays a part. Quite frankly looked scared a number of times under the high ball last weekend.
@Jack Ronan: he had three high ball errors, but took a good few besides them and has generally been good under the high ball for the last year and a half. Everyone makes mistakes.
@Paddington C.: mistakes are fine but looked scared and didn’t compete for two of those. Eyes on the ball and a challenge should be the least expected.
@Paddington C.: RK makes mistakes too but my point is he has never backed away from competition in the air.
@Jack Ronan: scared seems like a bit of an exaggeration. It wasn’t his best day on a rugby field, but he still beat the most defenders of any Irish player. And he’s worth investing in. Obviously I think Kearney should be starting, but I think Larmour is worthy of the bench.
@Paddington C.: Was certainly timid. Not doubting his quality, arguably the most exciting prospect ever in Irish rugby and certainly worth investing in, just wouldn’t be confident in a tight game against the AB’s yet, if anything were to happen Kearney.
I think the 2015 World Cup winning NZ side would comfortably beat this current NZ side. We have every chance of getting a result on Saturday.
@retsnuM: Agreed but this team is probably better than the one beaten in Chicago 2 years ago – they didn’t have a 2nd row!
It’s a good enough team, but no all black beaters. Would have had Conway in instead of Stockdale, and Larmour on the bench. Would have had Beirne on the bench instead of Henderson (can play second row and blind side). Back line is OK but nothing scary there. The forwards are a match for their opposite numbers but if you want to beat the Abs you need to be better. Glad to see Cronin on the bench as well. All five forwards, if introduced, will add considerably but the backs are just so so. Odd too not to have McGrath playing as he and Sexton have gotten used to each other’s play.
@Cian Cafferky: what exactly has Conway done to be picked ahead of Stockdale?
Henderson covers 6 too.
@Cian Cafferky: As ruairdhi o connor said, i don’t think joe wanted to change five, that is a third of the team. If there no injuries, McGrath may have started
Come on Ireland!!
Would have had McGrath ahead of Marmion and Beirne on the bench, but no real surprises here. Looking forward to what should be a great game on Saturday! Go on the boys!!