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AS IT DOES every time there’s a big international sporting event, Goldman Sachs has produced a huge report, available to the public, analysing the World Cup, both from a perspective of the actual games and from an economic perspective.
Without wasting anyone’s time, here’s the firm’s odds for each time winning it all. As you can see, Brazil is a massive favourite, with nearly 50% chance of being champions:
Goldman also points out that it’s giving Brazil much higher odds of victory than the bookies, implying that you should probably bet on them.
Goldman gives four reasons why Brazil is such a strong favorite:
- Brazil is the highest rated team in its index of raw team skill.
- Brazil has an excellent history in World Cup tournaments.
- Home advantage is a big predictor of success in the sport, and of course the World Cup is in Brazil.
- Home continent advantage is a big thing for Latin American teams, and no European team has ever won a World Cup in the Americas.
This chart breaks down why Goldman says Brazil has nearly a 50% shot.
You can read the Goldman report in full here >
– Joe Weisenthal, Business Insider
I dunno why, I just don’t think a midfield of Oscar, Willian and Ramires can win you the World Cup? Defence can be suspect and Fred up front is over the hill too! Could be wrong of course, but I just don’t see it happening!
Only Oscar of those three is likely to start, it will be Gustavo, Paulinho, Oscar, Neymar, Hulk and Fred
Fair point alright! Although in that case my opinion still stands! Haha! Always liked Gustavo but he’s not a world beater, Paulinho is streaky, Neymar and Hulk can cause damage alright, but they’re more wide players than out and out midfielders in Brazil’s system! I did forget Fernandinho and Hernanes though! But still, they just don’t seem as fearsome to me as past Brazil teams that looked invincible in that yellow jersey!
Your Streaky!
Look further into the research, it also highlights that their odds of winning would drop from 48.5% to less than 20% if the tournament wasn’t in the Americas.
I agree that home advantage is a big help for any team, but to more than double their chances of winning surprises me.
Granted, they have a very good chance at it, but so too do others. I would’ve put their odds closer to around 30%.
Don’t completely get the logic of their findings. They give Uruguay a better chance than England of making it out of their group and also a better chance or making the quarters than England. However they then consider that England have a better chance of making the semi’s, the final, or actually winning it, even though Uruguay have more recently been to a semi-finals, have won more world cups than England, and, the competition is on their continent, strange……..
They’ll walk their group but then get caught out when they play Spain, Holland or Chile in the second round. 23/10, seems like a good bet to me.
… So just to clarify, we’re talking about the same Brazil side that took a full strength Spain to pieces 3-0 in last summer’s Confed Cup Final?
In that case, I can’t see them struggling too much, unless they meet Germany or perhaps Argentina.
Also, don’t write off the Chelsea lads completely, just because Mourinho forces them to play like foxhounds at club level doesn’t mean they don’t have it in them to play a more natural, Brazilian style of football.
With a fully fit Suarez Uruguay will go along way, they are the copa America champions too.
Oh god, do not let it be Brazil….
Brazil are an each way beat for sure,not much money off it but worth a shot.
England fans upon reading this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCKOI24k_UY
Im having a punt on Chile to be the best placed south American team of the tournament, they are a quality team who gave the German team the run around in a friendly recently, well capable of doing a number on any side in the competition.
Must of punched some random numbers to have Uruguay below of England
Aren’t Goldman Sachs an American company. What do they know about football