US Open expert view: Rory, the rain, and a 70/1 shot who could spring a surprise

THE SEASON’S SECOND Major gets underway tomorrow when golf’s biggest names tee up for the US Open at Merion Golf Club.

Ahead of the opening round, we caught up with Sky Sports analyst Ewen Murray for a quick chat about Tiger, Rory, and his top tips for the weekend.

Let’s start with the main man. Is Tiger Woods good value to win at 5/1?

It’s five years to the week since he won his last Major. I don’t think anyone would have thought he would go five years in a dry run. The more receptive the course is, the more it will play into his hands. The strongest part of his game has been his putting and that’s probably been the weakest part over the last few years — maybe not the weakest but nowhere near as strong as he was when he was dominant. He seems to have got that back which shows his nerve and his confidence is good.

But I think 5/1 in a field like that is not great odds. I think realistically he’s probably 8/1, but 5/1 tells you he’s an out-and-out favourite and with McIlroy out at 18 or 20/1, it’s a big gap between first and second. The bookies think he’s got a great chance of winning and ending his run — and they’re not often wrong.

You’ve got so many players now that can go out and win. I think maybe 20 years ago you had a dozen players that you’d look at a think it would be one of them but now, look at players like Harris English last week with two birdies in the last three holes. Would you have picked Webb Simpson to win last year? Probably not. Would you have picked Lucas Glover to win in 2009? Probably not. There are a lot of good players out there and it just depends on how they putt.

It has been bucketing down at Merion all week. How will the heavy rain affect the tournament?

The USGA will obviously want the greens relatively firm because that’s the way they’ve set the course up. It will make it easier for the players this year, both the greens and the fairways will be more receptive, but hopefully the last storm has gone through and by Thursday it will have dried out a little bit.

(Darron Cummings/AP/Press Association Images)

They might have the lowest ever round in a Major — 24 times there has been a 63 and there may be a 62 out there but until I actually see the course, I’m not sure. The more receptive the course is, the more likely we’ll have a massive amount of birdies as opposed to par being a good score which is normally the state of affairs in the US Open.

They’ll certainly toughen up the pin positions if the greens are soft. If the greens become firm, then they’ve got the option of putting them wherever they want.

What does Rory McIlroy have to change to be in contention?

He’s talked about his putting and he’s spent some time with Dave Stockton the last two weeks, but I think what Rory has to do is get back to enjoying golf again. It’s difficult to enjoy it when things are not going well, especially for a young lad of 24, but we know what he’s capable of and we know the quality that McIlroy gives the game.

I honestly think he’s one round away from having a good tournament. I think if he shoots 66 or 67 on the first day, you’ll see a very different McIlroy in the next few days. That talent never goes away and I’d say he’s probably the most talented player in the game today. I don’t see this as a crisis for McIlroy.

You have to bear in mind, the two Majors he has won, he’s gone in to them with not great form. It wouldn’t surprise me if he shot a low score on Thursday and backed that up with three more on Friday and Saturday and Sunday. He is top quality.

What about Adam Scott? Can he win his second Major of 2013 and launch a Grand Slam bid?

I think there’s a strong chance Adam Scott could win but I think winning a Grand Slam is probably not going to happen. The pressure going into the USPGA, it wouldn’t be insurmountable but it would be enormous. Again, because of the amount of players who are capable of winning, I don’t think we’ll ever see that, certainly not in our lifetime.

(Darron Cummings/AP/Press Association Images)

At 6,996 yards, Merion is a very short course. Which players have the most to gain?

My two picks for the week are Matteo Manassero (70/1) and Phil Mickelson (22/1).

I look at Manassero aged 20 and it’s the 100th anniversary year of Francis Ouimet winning when he was 20. I think Manassero has matured beautifully as a player and I think he’s in with a chance because this is not one based on length; length is always an advantage but here, less so.

Mickelson has been second in the US Open five times. I think he won’t be dictated to on what clubs to take off the tee. This is not going to be driver every par four and every par five, and I think Mickelson is one of the best mid-iron and short-iron players in the game today and that’s where you have to be strong. Mickelson’s a long hitter but here he won’t have to do it and I think he’ll be more disciplined at Merion than perhaps he has been at previous US Open courses.

Enjoy all the big events live on Sky Sports this summer including the Lions Tour, Irish Open, two of golf’s Majors and US Open tennis.