SO FAR, THE 2011-12 Champions League season has defied form and logic. The question now is whether it will continue to do so.

After all, following a campaign in which Basel eliminated Manchester United and the richest club in the world went out at the earliest possible stage, many expected Barcelona and Real Madrid to meet in the ultimate showdown at the Allianz Arena. It wasn’t to be. The best team will not win the Champions League this season.

Indeed, this will be the first time in five years that the eventual champions will have not finished first in their domestic leagues. And, duly, both Bayern Munich and Chelsea used something other than form to defeat the Spanish sides: fatigue, inspiration, desperation, drama – in truth, a combination of all of that.

It is perhaps fitting, then, that the build-up to the 2012 final has been boiled down to what are, essentially, intangibles. For Bayern, it’s home advantage. For Chelsea, it’s their recent, raucous history in the competition.

And both may end up working against the teams as much as for them.

With Bayern, the fact that they are at home has been talked about so much that expectation may well spill over into unmanageable pressure. Indeed, it was notable that manager Jupp Heynckes sought to play it all down in Friday’s press conference.

With Chelsea, the sheer drama and histrionics of their campaign – after so many similar incidents that went against them in previous years – have created a feeling of fate akin to Liverpool’s run to Istanbul 2005. They just have that sort of perception about them. That, however, has already spilled over into the kind of overzealousness that sees them miss three cornerstones of the first XI: John Terry, Ramires and Branislav Ivanovic.

Both clubs, however, can point to a seeming sense of destiny.

And that’s also apt, because there is very little to separate them in terms of overall quality.

Both have defences that are generally durable and dependable but also susceptible to the odd filleting: not least, Bayern’s evisceration at the feet of Borussia Dortmund last week. Those elements, however, are also compromised by the fact both are missing two regular starters from their back four.

Both, meanwhile, see all the star quality in attack. Except, for Chelsea, it’s still mostly about power. For Bayern, it’s mostly about pace.

And it’s there where the differences between the teams start to emerge. Not least in approach.

Given the general circumstances of the game, the expectation is that the home team will attack while Chelsea will sit back and wait. Of course, the latter’s hand is also somewhat forced here given that the absence of Ramires greatly alters their potential angles and avenues of approach.

It’s entirely possible that, because of the fact they are such a reduced force, Chelsea may well seek to simply spoil the game. In that, it wouldn’t be too different to the 1980 final, if slightly more cynical. And, back then, a less-fancied English team (albeit defending champions Nottingham Forest) defeated a German one with a touch more stardust.

When pressed on this matter on Friday, however, Roberto Di Matteo became slightly bullish. He insisted that he was preparing for “every eventuality” and conceded that the opportunity might be there to take the game to Bayern or catch them unawares.

As regards of the actual pattern, though, unless Di Matteo offers up the kind of hugely surprising tactical trump card that completely opens up the tie, it’s hard not to see Bayern controlling the game as they did against Real Madrid and Chelsea defending doggedly as they themselves did against Barca.

In that, Bayern may well be susceptible to being caught on the break without enjoying the space themselves to truly run at Chelsea (as Leo Messi found), while the Londoners will have to hope that yet another patched-together defence holds together for long periods. With each passing minute, it will become statistically less likely.

As such, Di Matteo is going to have to do something to stem Bayern’s support from further back, not least the forays of Philippe Lahm. Here, Michael Essien may well prove a belated hero.

Either way – and despite what Roman Abramovich may believe and what the build-up may have been dominated by – this final would appear to come down to one issue: Di Matteo coming up with another tactical masterstroke.

Because, if both teams generally turn up as are, it’s difficult not to think that Bayern’s forwards and their control – against Chelsea’s much costlier absentees – will turn the game. As it stands, Bayern look in better shape.

As such, Di Matteo will have to tilt it.

But then that is what this campaign has been all about.

Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-1 Chelsea

Match pointers (via @infostradalive)

This is the fourth time Munich hosts a final. Only London has hosted more finals (6)

Jupp Heynckes can become the fourth coach to win the Champions Cup/Champions League with two different clubs

Frank Lampard can become the eighth British player to feature in 100 European matches

Chelsea can become the first club from London to win the European Cup

Letter from Munich: darkness on the edge of town as ‘real final’ in city’s beerhalls