WITH THE CHAMPIONS Cup reaching the quarter-final stages this weekend, we take a look at the last eight teams standing as the road to Aviva Stadium on 20 May heats up.
1. Leinster
Even with Johnny Sexton sidelined there is a sense of destiny about Leinster’s drive for five this season – with the province guaranteed home advantage right through to next month’s decider, should they make it that far.
Heavy favourites to beat Leicester Tigers tonight, Leo Cullen’s side have hardly been troubled on their way to the quarter-finals. They dispatched of Ulster last Saturday without the services of Grand Slam winners Caelan Doris and Garry Ringrose, while this weekend the loss of Josh van der Flier sees Doris come in at openside to form a dynamic backrow alongside the in-form Ryan Baird and Jack Conan.
With similar depth all over the park, added to the fact their key players will put their feet up for the final two rounds of regular season URC fixtures, the province are in pole position to land a first Champions Cup title since 2018.
2. La Rochelle
Can last year’s champions go all the way again? If so, it would be an even more impressive achievement than their historic success in Marseille.
Ronan O’Gara’s men have a tough looking task on the cards tomorrow as they host Saracens, where a win would tee them up for a home game against either Exeter or the Stormers. The French side also have Top 14 demands to juggle – they trail leaders Toulouse by six points – and needed a last-gasp try to avoid a shock defeat to Gloucester last weekend, but they certainly have the quality to go all the way again. Their pack tends to get most of the attention but O’Gara’s team are well able to carve up the opposition with ball in hand, too.
A repeat of last year’s final against Leinster looks highly likely and would provide a blockbuster ending to the Champions Cup season.
3. Toulouse
The five-time champions look better equipped to launch a proper assault on the competition than they did last year, but will have to do it the hard way. Beat the Sharks tomorrow, and they will probably have to travel to Dublin for a semi-final date with Leinster.
The province beat the French side 40-17 in their Dublin semi-final last year but the visitors were still recovering from their exhaustive shoot-out defeat of Munster at Aviva Stadium a week previously. A fresher, hungrier Toulouse would certainly provide a stiffer challenge for Leinster this time around, and it would make for a fascinating semi-final.
The talent across their backline is fearsome but their power-game is also a real weapon and Toulouse know how to play smart when the occasion demands it – think back to their win in the thick Thomond Park fog earlier this year. Like La Rochelle, league demands could come into play but don’t rule out the Top 14 leaders going on to land a famous double.
4. Saracens
Leinster’s old foes are back in the Champions Cup after a two-year absence and they know what it takes to win the competition. The old guard didn’t exactly light it up with England during the Six Nations but Owen Farrell has had some excellent performances for Sarries this year and it would be foolish write off the likes of Maro Itoje when it comes to knockout rugby.
Saracens are top of the Premiership and while the quality of that competition wouldn’t instill much confidence, Mark McCall’s side are well able to finding another level when it comes to this competition. They’ve a big challenge on their hands this weekend as they hit the road to play La Rochelle, but topple the French giants and they can look forward to a very winnable semi-final against either Exeter or the Stormers.
5. Stormers
Great fun to watch, but do the Stormers have the quality to go all the way in Europe? On paper, probably, but they’ve a lot of air miles to clock before booking a place in the Aviva Stadium final.
John Dobson’s side visit Exeter on Saturday and while it’s a game they can win, their ‘home’ semi-final would see them play Saracens in London while the other possibility is an away game against La Rochelle. Last season’s URC champions are a quality team who have made their mark on this competition but the travels demands placed on them are a major hurdle.
6. Exeter
Winners in 2020, Exeter are not the force of old and while they remain hard to beat on their day thanks to the classic, pragmatic Exeter gameplan, they are also capable of letting the floodgates open.
In the last month alone Exeter – who have lost eight from 17 in the Premiership – have shipped 36 points at Bath at 40 at Harlequins. Sandy Park is never an easy place for visiting teams but tomorrow’s clash with a Stormers side well capable of putting up big numbers could be the end of the road. If Exeter do advance, they’ll either play La Rochelle (away) or (Saracens) home, with Leinster or Toulouse likely waiting on the other side, and they probably don’t have the squad depth required to pull off that series of upsets.
7. Sharks
Will be feeling good about themselves after flexing their muscles against Munster in Durban but the Sharks can be wildly inconsistent across 80 minutes, let alone game to game. At the business end of the Champions Cup, that will get punished.
A squad laced with Springboks can trouble Toulouse at the Stade Ernest Wallon tomorrow but the French side won’t offer up as many opportunities as Munster did, and have the power to match the South Africans. Even if they win in France, like the Stormers, travel demands will surely take a toll.
8. Leicester
Last year’s Premiership winners might have featured higher on this list if they had a kinder route to the final but a Tigers Champions Cup win look highly unlikely. It will take a massive effort to beat Leinster tonight and if they do pull off a shock in Dublin, their reward will be an away semi-final against Toulouse or the Sharks (a game which would be played in London).
Leicester have a decent squad and while their kick-heavy gameplan can be effective, they can look a little limited and probably don’t have the quality to go all the way, even allowing for a famous win in Dublin tonight.
Champions Cup quarter-finals
Friday 7 April
Leinster Rugby v Leicester Tigers
Aviva Stadium, 8pm, live on RTÉ/BT Sport
Saturday 8 April
Toulouse v Cell C Sharks
Stade Ernest Wallon, 3pm, live on BT Sport
Exeter Chiefs v DHL Stormers
Sandy Park, 5.30pm, live on BT Sport
Sunday 9 April
La Rochelle v Saracens,
Stade Marcel Deflandre, 3pm, live on BT Sport
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I trust Joe. He is at the centre of everything. He is also the best and really knows best.
One of the beauties of having Joe Schmidt as head coach – the first world class head coach, with the exception of Warren Gatland, that Ireland has ever had – is that he has created a system in which every player in the squad can slot into seamlessly. Everybody knows their role and what is expected. Unlike previous Irish head coaches, such as embittered ones currently employed by RTE, Joe Schmidt can see the bigger picture in the World Cup: he doesn’t panic and send out old reliables, who are not fully fit, in the first match. Joe Schmidt’s dispassionate and beautifully professional approach is what has seen Ireland enter the Rugby World Cup as the Number One ranked team in the world, an incredible achievement which shows Joe Schmidt’s ability, unique among Irish head coaches, of getting Ireland ready to peak at the right time.
Joe Schmidt’s Ireland’s confident, back-to-back defeats of Wales in the RWC warm-ups were not only important for proving which team had the greater strength in depth, but were timely in the event of a potential meeting with Wales in the World Cup semi-finals. Those results proved, yet again, lest any of the doubters and begrudgers had any doubts, Joe Schmidt’s permanent class. Schmidt and his team have given Irish supporters a sweet gift in the run-in to the RWC: the great pleasure of clicking on the World Rugby website and seeing Ireland ranked on top of the world, even before we go on to lift the Webb Ellis trophy!
@J. Reid:
We are not number 1 in the world :: NZ ::: S A :: England ::Ireland/Wales
But it will be nice to look back at the numbers in 5 years’ time to see we were No. 1 in the world in September 2019 (the number will still be there and the memory will have slipped )
@J. Reid: Stan
@Martin Quinn: Why do you constantly use colons in your posts? It’s really odd.
Our pack is superior, but the backrow battle will be immense, need to nullify Barclay & Watson.
Fingers crossed our lineout functions properly.
Looking forward to seeing Conway & Larmour, hope their eagerness to impress doesn’t lead to any brain farts though. Conway is fearless contesting the high ball, but sometimes mistimes & takes the jumper out in the air. We can’t afford to be down to 14 men.
Seems pretty silly to have Carty come off the bench with McGrath, when Marmion, Carty and Aki have a telepathy between them and would be playing at the same time. Anyhow, hope McGrath has a stormer and makes me eat my words with regards him being picked ahead of Marms.
@Joe Vlogs: Well he couldn’t come off the bench with Marmion as he’s not in the squad. If Joe sees McGrath as the better option for whatever reason, be it he thinks he’s a better player or Marmion hasn’t been fully fit, it would have made little sense to bring a scrum half to the world cup that he didn’t fancy just because he’s bringing his club mate as what will most likely be 3rd choice fly half as the tournament progresses.
@Joe Vlogs: or maybe McGrath has the same with sexton Ross Byrne , henshaw, larmour Kearney etc. it’s Ireland playing not a bunch of mates who play down the road
I trust Joe. He is at the centre of everything and, with his intimate knowledge of everything rugby and his excellant judgement, seldom if ever lets us down.
Looks like he throwing the first match
@Colm: how do you figure that
Conway should be playing full back.
front row will put pressure on Scots.
overall pack will dominate Scotland.
must stop Hogg on gain line.
Hopefully Stockdale won’t jump out of the line
@john fleming: I disagree, he’s great in the air but runs the ball back which is great but too frequently gets turned over…unlike Kearney and to a lesser extent unlike Larmour. Ball presentation is key in that position with little room for error. He had a great game against Wales but did see him turnover ball twice against Wales
Realistically I think we all expected this starting 15. Some might have put Conway at 15 and Larmour on the wing, I would have too, but it’s obvious that Joe sees Larmour as a better option there than Conway. Because of injuries the backs pretty much picked themselves. He’s also gone with the tried and tested in the backrow. In the absence of Toner I think it’s fair to say that POM will start all the big games when fit for his lineout prowess. Leaving Stander and Conan to fight it out for number 8. Only real surprise might be Scannel on the bench instead of Cronin but Scannel is a good player and is my bet for the starting hooker come the 6 nations. Looking at both teams and not permitting for weird weather I think Ireland will have too much for Scotland. Ireland by 10
I probably would of preferred Conway at fullback but to be fair, larmour has been our back up fullback to Kearney and it would of been a slap in the face to larmour if he didn’t start him there. It’s a very potent back 3 but I just have a small fear of that 3 defensively but coybig!!!!
Wales/England would look to exploit recent aerial form and set piece worries, but don’t think the Scots like playing tactics, they wont switch up their formula and will just hope Russell doesn’t have a howler. Cracker of a game hopefully.
With Kearney fully fit I would expect a 7-12 point win but without him it will be a nailbiter. Can see Laidlaw and Russell sending deep box kicks and garryowens for Hogg, Maitland and Seymour to test Larmour all day.