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Farrell should prioritise the Six Nations over a four-year-plan. Dan Sheridan/INPHO

Memo to Andy Farrell: forget four-year plans, history has shown they don’t work

The Ireland coach should resist calls to ditch his experienced players.

STEVE STAUNTON HAD a four-year plan. It’s worth remembering that. Across codes, across the channel, Philippe Saint-André typed ‘de gaffer’ into Google-translate and implemented a similar policy of his own.

Look how that turned out. France were just after controversially losing the 2011 World Cup final by a point when Saint-André arrived, promising stability, delivering chaos. Under his watch, France finished fourth, sixth, fourth and fourth in successive Six Nations championships, their worst run in the competition since the 1950s.

And yet it didn’t seem to bother him on the eve of the 2015 World Cup, when he bullishly stated his four-year rebuilding plan was coming to fruition. “I believe, I really, really believe that France can beat any team in the world,” he said. “Seriously, honestly, yes I do.” They lost 62-13 to New Zealand in the quarter-finals.

france-players-dejected-at-the-final-whistle Saint-André's four-year plan ended in disaster at the 2015 World Cup. Dan Sheridan / INPHO Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO

There’s a lesson there, not just for Andy Farrell, but every Irish fan obsessed with four-year cycles and sacrificing this year’s Six Nations championship for the long-term goal of building towards 2023. For some time, winning a World Cup quarter-final has been an obsession in this country; no one yet able to crack the code.

Plenty of comment-posters and tweeters are willing to advise Farrell how to do it, however, noting the 19 uncapped players’ in France’s squad for this year’s Six Nations, wondering whether this is the road Ireland should also travel.

Well, it’s not. Remember it’s just eight years since Saint-André looked at the star-studded squad who had turned on his predecessor, Marc Lièvremont, and decided it was time to invoke the spirit of 1789 by getting out an axe of his own.

By the time the 2015 World Cup had come around, there were only seven survivors from the previous tournament. But the radical manifesto failed.

It always does in rugby. You only have to trace your fingers through history’s notepad to realise this; a recurring theme running through each of the team-sheets from the last five World Cup finals.

From England in 2003 through to South Africa last year, every winning side has been led by grey-beards; Clive Woodward selecting six players aged 30 or over to start the 2003 final, the same number of thirtysomethings who lined out for the All Blacks in the 2015 decider. In 2011, New Zealand had five starters aged 30 or over; South Africa getting by with just two (Percy Montgomery and Os du Randt) for the 2007 final and just three (Willie le Roux, Duane Vermeulen and Tendai Mtawarira) in last year’s win over England.

Youth also featured in all those teams but not as prominently. Of the 75 winning players picked to start the last five World Cup finals, just 12 were aged 24 or younger, whereas 41 were in the 25-29 age bracket, with 22 players selected who had 30 or more candles on their birthday cakes. Memo to Farrell: don’t discard experience too quickly.

He hasn’t. The new coach’s squad is noteworthy for the disappearance of 12 names who Joe Schmidt brought to Japan but when you look a little closer at those who’ve been ditched, only one – Rob Kearney –  started the quarter-final. The rest were fringe players, or – in Rory Best’s case – have retired.

the-ireland-team-during-the-anthems Most of the starting XV from the World Cup are still in Farrell's squad. Dan Sheridan / INPHO Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO

You can’t predict the future and categorically state whether Farrell is doing the right thing. You can look to the recent past, though, and the templates used by the last five teams to win a World Cup. Each managed to get the right mix, Clive Woodward giving a third of his winning team their debuts in the four-year cycle leading up to the 2003 tournament.

Next came South Africa in 2007. Again, there was a blend of experience and youth; two-thirds of the starting XV capped prior to the previous World Cup, the remaining five players aged 24 or younger.

Onto New Zealand, 2011. Graham Henry started his planning for that tournament three years in advance, first capping Kieran Read, Richard Kahui and Cory Jane in 2008, Owen Franks a year later, Sam Whitelock, Israel Dagg and Aaron Cruden in 2010. All seven started the 2011 final.

Here is firm evidence of a four-year cycle working yet only when you concede that Henry made change and continuity rhyme – for alongside the seven new guys were eight experienced ones: Brad Thorn was 36-years-old when picked to start that 2011 final; Kevin Mealamu was 32; Richie McCaw 31; Conrad Smith and Tony Woodcock were 30; Ma’a Nonu 29; Piri Weepu and Jerome Kaino both 28.

Seven of that team – plus an injury-free Dan Carter – survived to start the next World Cup final, backed up by six guys who made their international debut in the intervening years. In 2019, South Africa didn’t have one player aged under 25 in their starting XV but a third of their side were brought into the squad in the aftermath of 2015.

richie-mccaw-and-dan-carter-lift-the-webb-ellis-cup Dan Carter lifts the 2015 World Cup with Richie McCaw. Dan Sheridan / INPHO Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO

The secret is going for a cocktail of new and old. You can’t have one or the other, particularly in Ireland’s case where there are only four professional sides – and, at most, a handful of players operating outside the country who could reach international standard.

Aside from anything else, another point has to be made, namely that with just three grand slams to our name and just four championships since 1985, we haven’t earned the right to be sniffy about a tournament as established as the Six Nations. And that’s before we mention how Irish rugby’s financial structure is practically dependent on the national team doing well in it.

So stand firm, Andy Farrell. You can listen to the accusations your predecessors were too conservative and respond by pointing out that James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Robbie Henshaw, Andrew Porter, Jacob Stockdale, Jordan Larmour, Keith Earls and Garry Ringrose were 21 or younger when first capped.

You could ditch Sexton, Earls and Conor Murray now on account of their age but could end up regretting it in four-weeks, never mind four-years-time. People were right to say Schmidt was too slow to promote Larmour and one of Sean Cronin/Niall Scannell ahead of Kearney and Best at the last World Cup. So, don’t repeat that type of mistake.

But when the revolutionary versus evolutionary debate ends in the theoretical chamber, there can be only one winner. Forget a four-year plan. Stick to an 80-minute one.

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27 Comments
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    Mute #JUSTICE4NOEL
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    Jan 24th 2020, 10:37 AM

    Memo to Andy Farrell: forget overrated, out of form players, history has show they don’t work.

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    Mute s mc
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    Jan 24th 2020, 11:01 AM

    Consistently pick the best players, tournament after tournament. Make no player comfortable that his spot is safe. Make the club game your shop window. Drive competitiveness. Might make the pro 14 interpros more competitive

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    Mute Christiaan Theron
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    Jan 24th 2020, 1:05 PM

    @s mc: Drive a runnning skills based game at club level and move more players around the provinces to build game-time and drive success.

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    Jan 24th 2020, 1:44 PM

    @Christiaan Theron: set up a draft system straight out of school for the academies

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    Mute Stephen Rogan
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    Jan 24th 2020, 12:20 PM

    Of course, if Farrell had anything close to a clue as to how to do his job, he would know that, first and foremost, he needs to come here to get proper expert input from me and my fellow commenters. Sure, since we’re so informed and knowledgeable, we can even pick the team for him too – how hard could it be?

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    Mute David
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    Jan 24th 2020, 2:10 PM

    @Stephen Rogan: I got a good giggle out of that.

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    Mute Christiaan Theron
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    Jan 24th 2020, 2:53 PM

    @Stephen Rogan: Are you Garry Doyle?

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    Mute John Carey
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    Jan 24th 2020, 11:31 AM

    Every 6 Nations & every November pick your best 23 four the next four years

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    Mute Danny O'Riordan
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    Jan 24th 2020, 11:59 AM

    @John Carey: November series? You mean meaningless friendlies with nothing on offer? I’d say blood new players during that period.

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    Mute Nollaig Elliot
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    Jan 24th 2020, 12:04 PM

    @Danny O’Riordan:

    There are no friendly’s in rugby horse.

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    Mute Darren Byrne
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    Jan 24th 2020, 12:55 PM

    @Danny O’Riordan: No, test matches against the worlds best such as New Zealand and South Africa.

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    Mute Danny O'Riordan
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    Jan 24th 2020, 2:05 PM

    @Nollaig Elliot: ok Rugger head so when Ireland got hammered 57-15 before the World Cup I suppose that was a “warm up”/friendly in your eyes?

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    Mute Stephen Rogan
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    Jan 24th 2020, 3:32 PM

    @Danny O’Riordan: In all fairness, the draw for the next world cup is this autumn, I think. The world ranking we achieve in all those “meaningless” internationals will go a long way go deciding who we end up play.

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    Mute Nollaig Elliot
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    Jan 24th 2020, 9:12 PM

    @Danny O’Riordan:

    You seem clever.

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    Mute Tom Reilly
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    Jan 24th 2020, 11:37 AM

    As I said yesterday 4 yr planning is not an exact science.eg.Sexton, Jackson and Carbery were being developed for Japan.One is exiled, one is crocked and one loses form.At the same time the provinces were only producing out halves who were Pro 12 standard at best.

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    Mute Stanley Marsh
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    Jan 24th 2020, 4:29 PM

    Nothing wrong with a 4 year plan as long as it’s the right 4 year plan.

    Mine for instance would be to forget about 2023 until at least autumn 2021 when you can have a look at the trends in the game, see what the likes of NZ, Aus and Eng are up to and plan accordingly.

    In the meantime get on with developing skills and top quality players who can play a multitude of different game types.

    I would imagine if you rock up to any tournament with 30+ fit, skillful and adaptable quality players and you have a good idea what your main competitors are up to you’ll probably do ok.

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    Mute Dino
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    Jan 24th 2020, 1:31 PM

    It is imperative to have a four year plan to build depth and experience in your squad. I think tbf to Joe he did build a decent bit of depth to the squad. Where Joe and his predecessors fell down to a certain extent was relying on what players had produced previously instead of looking at their form for their club whether it be in pro14 or HC. We know the step up is huge so it is imperative to give your back up players experience in the 6 nations so they can see the level they need to get to. Joe and his predecessors only ever gave new players a chance in competitive fixtures when they incumbents were injured e.g. Marmion v England where he excelled but never really got much of a chance after again. The same happened in positions where it was obvious the incumbents were either out of form or likely to be by the time the world cup came around due to their age like Kearney and Best. People say the younger players were not as good as the incumbents but my answer to that is how could they be when they are not playing at that level. Kearney and Best are gone now and I’ll bet the Ireland team will be just fine as it was when BOD and POC retired.

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    Mute Christiaan Theron
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    Jan 24th 2020, 3:02 PM

    @Dino: It was only when Cooney moved and got game time at Ulster did he put himself in the selection window. Farrell really needs to get to grips with depth at the other 3 provinces. Fact is until players move for example a 10 to Munster and backrows to Ulster its hard to see how players will get the experience from being third or fourth pick at one club.

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    Mute Dino Baggio
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    Jan 26th 2020, 1:57 AM

    @Christiaan Theron: i agree fully but marmion was (and arguably still is) a better player than Cooney but was given very little game time for Ireland due to Murray always being fit. Re a 10 to Munster that has happened already, you would think they could do with beefing up Connacht so they can compete better in three champions cup rather than adding to one if the best funded provinces?

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    Mute Christiaan Theron
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    Jan 26th 2020, 2:49 AM

    @Dino Baggio: Blade has been putting his hand up. There are 10s in the pecking order that need more game-time at senior rugby level and Munster has injuries. Has Connacht signed any players from the AIL or any exiles this season? Are there any players being developed from Sligo and Leitrim? Connacht are the smallest province and for that reason will always be compelled to look to the AIL, Exiles and players with a GAA background such as Carty and Murray.

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    Mute Dino Baggio
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    Jan 26th 2020, 11:33 PM

    @Christiaan Theron: Connacht are doing very well with what message resources they have. My point was when the likes of Carberry joins Munster the quid pro quo should have been the move could only happen if JJ joined Connacht. Munster (and Ulster) seem to be getting the high end talent from leinster as these players know Munster is well resourced and backed by the IRFU and my point is they should feel the same way about Connacht and then make their choice based on where they will get the most game time rather than who has the best coaches or training facilities which should all be on a par with each other.

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    Mute Christiaan Theron
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    Jan 27th 2020, 12:44 AM

    @Dino Baggio: If Connacht were doing very well with the resources they have then they would be performing at the level they are now. When Connacht signed the Fitz brothers, Ulster signed Bill Johnston. Arguably if Ulster had signed Farrell the IRFU would have had a centre pairing comparable to the Henshaw/Aki partnership. With Carty at Connacht it is not clear the benefit of JJ moving especially as Sprout has had a lot of game time. With the new stadium planned at Connacht that maybe a draw. Leinster are giving game-time to Rowan Osborne and Ulster have signed EOS from the AIL. Connacht has some advantages that Ulster and Munster dont in terms of recruiting GAA minors.

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    Mute Christiaan Theron
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    Jan 27th 2020, 12:47 AM

    @Dino Baggio: *wouldn’t be

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    Mute Dino
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    Jan 24th 2020, 1:33 PM

    This guy damns himself with his own figures, 75% of world cup winning players were 29 or under so anyone 26 or over now won’t meet this demographic for the next world cup so we should be concentrating on players younger than 26 according to him?

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    Mute Gerry Madden
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    Jan 24th 2020, 9:04 PM

    So… it’s a young man’s game… reputations mean absolutely nothing… strength up front and real pace behind… to get the strength up front you sacrifice youth… to get the pace at the back you gamble…older guys earning big bucks can’t be expected to walk away so ruthless decisions must be made… the days of guys winning huge numbers of caps are gone… it’s a professional game… if you can’t deliver at the required level, you move to the level where you can function effectively and new talent takes your place…

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    Mute Christiaan Theron
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    Jan 24th 2020, 1:12 PM

    Clearly Andy Farrell knows something that those calling for a 4 year plan dont. The whole show depends entirely on the income from the Six nations. If Ireland win a Grand Slam in the next couple of years, the year 4 planners will be forgotten.

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    Jan 24th 2020, 10:43 PM

    my hot photos are here…

    http://69-chat.club

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