1. What is the biggest storyline surrounding Ireland in the Euro 2024 qualifiers?
Gavin Cooney: It is obviously whether Ireland can qualify. This is the campaign Stephen Kenny targeted from the off, so it’s perhaps typical of his luck that he ended up in a group with France and the Netherlands. That the French have been to back-to-back World Cup finals and are the group’s second seeds is a joke, but Ireland had the opportunity to escape this malign fate had they performed better in their Nations League group.
Ireland’s job is to somehow split the top two, and while they’ve finished ahead of the Dutch in a qualifying campaign before, Kenny aptly summed it up in the aftermath of the draw in saying his team would have to do something “extraordinary” to qualify. The Nations League offers a byzantine backdoor through the playoffs, but that picture won’t be clear until the end of the campaign.
Paul Fennessy: There has been too much focus on the identity of the Ireland manager in recent years, to the point where it feels as if the players are almost excused for sub-par performances, but this is surely Kenny’s definitive campaign. Qualification for the Euros would seem like a vindication of the faith placed in the former Dundalk boss, particularly given the tough group.
But serious questions will be asked if the team fail to qualify. It’s a little harsh to point out, given that he only managed one game for the last Euros, but historically, no Ireland manager has ever survived after overseeing three successive unsuccessful qualifying campaigns.
Enda Coll: I’d love to say the biggest storyline is Ireland’s young and exciting squad embarking on their first real qualifying campaign, but unfortunately, like every campaign since he got the job, the storyline is Stephen Kenny.
It’s a tough group, sure, but this campaign is an opportunity for Stephen Kenny. The only plausible way to qualify is by getting a big result against either the Netherlands and/or France.
If he manages to do so, then it will be another monkey off the back for him as Ireland boss. One of the biggest talking points surrounding his management was whether he could get a big result without compromising on his style.
This is his opportunity to prove it can be done and quiet the naysayers. A result against either team is necessary, but could also prove to be the turning point in the Kenny era of Irish football.
2. What is the key game for Ireland?
Gavin: I think it’s the game away to Greece in the middle of June. Ireland were third seeds in the draw but Greece were the toughest side they could have got from the fourth pot, and the timing of the away game – pair extreme heat with a set of rusty Championship players – was the worst possible outcome.
Lessons will have been learned from the awful result away to Armenia last June, but this game feels like the campaign’s fairest barometer for Ireland. Nobody with a fair mind is demanding anything against France or the Netherlands, but the long arc of this team’s development should now be at the point of beating the teams ranked below them.
Paul: I suspect Ireland’s second qualifier, away to Greece in June in what are likely to be very humid conditions, could have a big impact on how the campaign pans out. Gus Poyet’s men were one of the toughest fourth seeds Ireland could have drawn — they drew with Spain and beat Sweden in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. A win in Athens would give Ireland confidence and momentum, on the other hand, a loss would feel catastrophic, particularly if they don’t get anything out of the France match before
Enda: While a result against Netherlands or France is going to be necessary to qualify, the bread and butter stuff is Greece and Gibraltar.
Greece have some good players, and will be tough to beat, but we should expect to do so. In terms of Gibraltar, it just has to be better than the 1-0 win over them under Martin O’Neill, it can’t be any worse.
3. Which Ireland player aka Evan Ferguson, are you most looking forward to watching?
Gavin: I mean the answer has to be Evan Ferguson. He has always had an air of precocity but the fact he is likely to lead the line for Ireland from the very start of this campaign is remarkable. He is developing an excellent all-round game at Brighton, but Ireland need him to be effective as a penalty-box striker.
Ireland have lost too many competitive games under Kenny but they have never lost one by more than a goal: perhaps Ferguson has the ruthless streak to turn these fine margins in Ireland’s favour.
Paul: It’s very hard not to get excited about Evan Ferguson. The usual caveats apply — he needs to avoid injury – but the early signs are highly promising. The 18-year-old seems relatively unfazed by all the attention he is receiving and had the perfect start to his Ireland career, scoring at home on his full debut against Latvia. There are plenty of talented youngsters in Stephen Kenny’s squad, but my feeling is that the trio of Ferguson, Nathan Collins, and Gavin Bazunu probably have the highest ceiling.
Enda: Naturally Evan Ferguson is the one everyone wants to see. But I think the key to Ferguson performing is how everyone around him performs too. There’s no point in having a killer in the box without having service for him.
Chance creation hasn’t been a huge problem for Ireland, but our finishing has been lacking. I’d like to get a look at how Stephen Kenny plans on using Mikey Johnston – I think he could be used in a left wing-back capacity, as he has played there for Celtic before.
It will also be good to see the return of Andrew Omobamidele to the team in some capacity.
4. Assess Stephen Kenny’s standing ahead of these qualifiers?
Gavin: The end of 2021 gave an impression of linear progress that didn’t survive contact with 2022, in which Ireland were maddeningly inconsistent. Kenny has done a very impressive job of introducing more than a new team’s worth of players and building depth.
Not qualifying from this group would not automatically represent a failure given the calibre of opponent, but he may need wins against Greece and Gibraltar and real signs of an ability to compete in a couple of the games with the heavyweights to be on firm ground in the future. But my kingdom for a campaign where the automatic talk at the end of every game isn’t on the manager’s suitability for his job.
Paul: I don’t think it’s as simple as saying it’s qualification or bust. But as Samuel Beckett might remark, at the very least, Kenny needs to fail better. I don’t think he could have any complaints if Ireland finish fourth and not make the playoffs while falling well short in all their big games.
On the other hand, it’s not entirely inconceivable that Ireland go into their final match against the Dutch in a de facto playoff for second place, perform extremely well, and lose out. It would seem harsh if Kenny were to lose his job in that scenario.
Enda: It’s now or never for Kenny. Progress has been made. Players have been blooded. Some of the chaos that comes with being Ireland manager has subdued. It’s now time to deliver.
I think most fans will accept 3rd place as a reasonable finish, but performance is key. Frustratingly against better sides, we’ve performed better and against sides we’d expect to beat, we’ve been poor.
I believe Stephen Kenny is and has been good for Irish football. He’s proven before that he can qualify for a major tournament, at club level, now it’s time to show it with Ireland.
5. Decision time – where are Ireland going to finish in the table?
Gavin: Third.
Paul: I’m going to have to be pessimistic and say third.
Enda: It might be the naivety of the Irish football fan but I think Ireland will qualify. Evan Ferguson is a game changer, The foundations Kenny has built, will prove vital, and Ireland will enter Euro 2024 having finished 2nd in this group ahead of the Dutch.
