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Preview: Modern Italians stand in way of historic Spanish win

Miguel Delaney is in Kiev examining what makes the Euro 2012 finalists tick.

SPAIN ARE ON the brink of history.

Italy, however, are on the brink of a truly remarkable tournament win. And they’ve done that thanks to Cesare Prandelli’s masterful exploitation of the here and now.

The Italian manager has undeniably proven himself the finest tactician in the tournament.

Tonight, for the second time in this tournament, he will have to illustrate it again in order to actually defeat Spain.

That is the thing about the opening-game performance. Although Italy were rightfully lauded for giving Spain more problems than any team over the last four years, they didn’t actually beat them. What’s more, as dangerous as they were, they were still dependent on Fernando Torres missing a trio of late chances.

Will such fortune be on Italy’s side tonight again?

To be fair, they dynamics of the game have shifted somewhat since that 1-1 in Gdansk.

For one, Italy have grown in both confidence and momentum, culminating in that exceptional victory over Germany.

They have also been somewhat out of sync with the rest of the tournament given that they enjoy a trio of strikers, who are all on form and scoring goals – not least Mario Balotelli.

That, of course, is in stark contrast to the Spanish, who refuse to even use their strikers.

Indeed, the more laboured play of the Spanish attack has best illustrated the fatigue which is beginning to affect the team.

In the semi-final against Portugal, they were misplacing more passes and miscontrolling more balls than ever before.

Clearly a superior side to the Italians in a technical sense, the Spanish may suddenly see all of these issues bridge the gap.

Or, all the tension and anxiety might finally evaporate now they’ve reached the final. It has happened before with Vicente Del Bosque’s side, not least in extra-time of that semi-final against Portugal.

Serene

At the very least, they’re unlikely to be as so evidently exhausted as they were in that match. They will have got to prepare in a much more serene manner, without the ludicrous travel plans that so needlessly filled those four days between the French and Portuguese games.

That, too, may give them a new lease of life.

There’s also the fact that Spain are unlikely to lease the ball to Italy for very long. And that could have more of an effect than usual.

This Italy have been so impressive, after all, precisely because they have successfully adopted Spain’s possession approach and grown more confident with it. On the eve of the German semi-final, Prandelli said it would show a “lack of maturity” to revert to a more classically Italian reserved style.

Tonight, with the Italian manager already accepting that his team will not take charge of this game, they’re going to have to compromise.

This is where it gets intriguing. Will Prandelli again be able to strike a balance between protecting his defence but also troubling Spain’s in the face of so much Spanish possession?

At the least, all of Antonio Di Natale, Antonio Cassano and Ballotelli look very lively on the break. Here, too, Andrea Pirlo’s long passes may prove crucial even if he sees much less of the ball himself.

That directness will likely be offset by Spain’s more convoluted attack. Attempting to draw out defences that sit so deeply, Del Bosque will – maybe mistakenly – probably revert to the 4-3-3-0.

The idea behind that is that Andres Iniesta, David Silva and Cesc Fabregas all interchange in order to pull defenders out of position. The reality is often somewhat different.

Don’t be surprised if Spain do their usual, start slow and then, by bringing on a striker late on, burst into life. It will be a massive surprise, however, if they don’t completely control the game.

Furthermore, there’s the fact that they still haven’t conceded a knock-out goal since 2006.

All of that should mean that they just about push themselves over the line again.

It will also put them on a pedestal all of their own.

Key battle: the centre of the pitch, as Italy will seek to congest Spain’s supply lines?

Key question: can Prandelli strike a successful balance between protecting his defence and piercing Spain on the break?

Recent scoring form: Spain 2.6 goals a game; Italy 1.5 goals a game

Recent defensive form: Spain 0.4 goals conceded a game; Italy 0.5 goals a game

History lesson: Spain have never beaten Italy in a tournament match. They have, however, eliminated them once and that happened the last time these two teams met in this very competition. Spain won a penalty shoot-out after the 0-0 draw in Vienna in the Euro 2008 quarter-finals.

Pointers

  • This is a battle between the two best defensive records in Euro 2012
  • As well as a historic third international trophy in a row, Spain are aiming for their record third European Championships
  • Italy are aiming for only their second European Championship

Prediction: Spain 1-0 Italy

Open Thread: Who do you want to win tonight’s Euro 2012 final?

Thunderstorms, rioting and cute Irish babies: here are the 50 most iconic images of Euro 2012

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    Mute Cormac
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 1:49 PM

    It’s a shame. People will have to get Sky to watch any sport soon.

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    Mute The Doctor
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:58 PM

    I watch more sport now without sky than I ever did with it. Everything is on the Internet.

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    Feb 3rd 2015, 4:33 PM

    Yeh , illegally. You’re a sc!mbucket.

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    Mute danielplainview
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 4:53 PM

    Just get sky sports you pleb. Whiff of poor people on the journal today.

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    Mute Fergal
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 6:37 PM

    It’s not illegal you dick of a pleb.

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    Mute Anto Mahon
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 7:52 PM

    I watch sky sports for free and its legal.

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    Mute Tattery McTittery
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    Feb 4th 2015, 12:22 AM

    Jaysus you are a grade A loser

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    Mute Sean Lawlor
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:05 PM

    No more 12 hours uninterrupted coverage of live golf so, will do well to get 12 minutes live. Then listen to Monty rabbit on about his near misses and how the Ryder cup is better than any major!

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    Mute Kieran Canavan
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 1:40 PM

    No more ken brown shocking news

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    Mute Tony Skillington
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 4:24 PM

    Or Peter Ailis..

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    Mute Aging Lothario
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 2:08 PM

    This is disgraceful, do they not have events in the UK that have to be shown on free to air television like we do here? God what will I do without my annual fix of Peter Allis, although one good thing is that it looks like I’ll have to go to the pub on the Sunday now to watch the final round of the Open.

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    Mute Pilib O Muiregan
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:33 PM

    Its an EU law as far as I know. I doubt the Open which is rarely won by a Brit would qualify as been in the national interest

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    Mute Andrew Hickey
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:38 PM

    Won by a Brit last year……..

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    Mute Aging Lothario
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 4:03 PM

    At the end of the day it’s a British tournament much like Wimbledon, so you would think that events such as the FA Cup, Cheltenham, Wimbledon and the Open should be on free to air. I think we have ten on our list, although apart from the All Ireland finals, I can’t think of what else is on this list. Oh and finally not that it makes any difference, but technically the Open was won by a Brit in 2011 and 2014, in the guise of Darren Clarke and Rory McIlroy.

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    Mute Luke D
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 2:04 PM

    Considering you can just watch it on a streaming site(albeit with poorer quality) sky could be on their way to a major crash once the internet becomes more integrated into tv’s.

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    Mute Pilib O Muiregan
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:32 PM

    Ace stream. High quality streams

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    Mute Proinsias Ó Foghlú
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:34 PM

    It’s a sad day for golf, the British Open is without doubt the best golf tournament in the world and it’s a shame that Sky have gotten their filthy hands on it.

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    Mute Exit Stage Left
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 4:28 PM

    They’ve done a great job with the Ryder cup. Sky do sport brilliantly.

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    Mute Luke O'Connell
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 8:49 PM

    The Ryder cup is the most over-rated tournament in golf…Golfers aren’t remembered by winning Ryder cups

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    Mute barry casey
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:05 PM

    It’s a sad day for sports fans

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    Mute Martin O' Neill
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 4:12 PM

    Shame. Pay per view is destroying sport!

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    Mute Neal Ireland Hello
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    Feb 4th 2015, 6:13 AM

    Sky Sports isn’t Pay-Per-View. It’s a normal subscription channel.

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    Mute Paul Tuohy
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:33 PM

    So more Colin Montgomerie…ah for feck sake

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    Mute Paul Cullen
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 7:11 PM

    R&A really need the money! Not only is it the most expensive tournament to go and watch now we have to pay to watch on tv shame on you Dawson and your R&A free loaders.

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    Mute Emer Caffrey
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 5:28 PM

    Greed, sad

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    Feb 3rd 2015, 1:41 PM

    Believe in better….

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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:06 PM

    Believe in ads

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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:51 PM

    Believe in online gambling ads.

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    Mute Will Derbylight
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:58 PM

    All Ireland finals going to Sky next?

    With the Captain’s Prize at Attymon Golf Club….

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    Mute Colin Breen
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 3:42 PM

    The adds are short. Sky coverage is far superior. And they wont be relying on cbs or golf channel so i expect it to be excellent. Delighted.

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    Mute Dead Ball Browne
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 10:18 PM

    Jees. We’ll have to listen and watch those nobody panels telling us and showing us on the simulator how all the great golfers are swinging it wrong. I dont think anyone of them ever won anything. And the fella with the brown tie and blue shirt..!!
    Here’s hoping Paul Mc Ginly will be commentating. Please keep grumpy Montgomery away as well. We want to watch golf.

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    Feb 3rd 2015, 6:30 PM

    Splendid stuff

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    Mute Jimmy Murphy
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 10:34 PM

    All sports will be that way soon, unfortunately.

    They know you don’t want to pay it so they’ll make it so you have to, one way or the other.

    Capitalism as consistent as ever

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    Mute Fergal
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    Feb 4th 2015, 2:45 PM

    So long as I don’t have to hear or watch Hazel Irvine again is good enough for me. She’s so anti Irish.

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    Mute Paul Sweeney
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    Feb 3rd 2015, 10:11 PM

    Tremendous news. Won’t have to sit through the insufferable boredom of it with the out laws. A good walk ruined..

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    Mute Neal Ireland Hello
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    Feb 4th 2015, 6:11 AM

    Interesting to see Sky Sports expanding to cover pastimes for those who don’t like sport. Very inclusive.

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