LITTLE THINGS STICK out from one’s childhood and a quite few of them are likely to involve your mother.
When we would go visiting relations, she used to break the ice by telling the relevant matron, after a pause: “I was admiring your curtains”.
As a budding journalist, or something like that, I’d be reading the newspaper and she’d come up unannounced and swipe the last couple of pages from my hands, imparting: “I might have a look at the deaths.”
Another was that any time we found something we lost, Saint Anthony got all the credit. The patron saint of lost and stolen articles was regularly hailed in the Ward homestead.
I gave up on Saint Anthony some time ago but I do feel that psychology plays a key role in trying to find something. Essentially, if you open the drawer and have little or no faith that the item is there, there is every chance you will not even find it if it is.
Which brings us to Saturday’s Aintree Grand National. David Jennings of the Racing Post and I confessed almost in unison on a recent video preview that neither of us has backed a single Grand National winner.
As a betting medium, I think top-class handicap chases are horrible, and they do not get any more horrible than the Grand National. Things are complicated farther by my antepost fancy, Mall Dini, being scratched on Thursday.
What is arguably the worst race of the year to have a bet in is the race that most people will have a bet in – just like how far more people bet on the Premier League than lower-league divisions, even if the Premier League is a terrible betting medium.
So, provisos and St Anthony referenced, here are five points of opinion from someone probably not worth listening to.
1. Do not back Tiger Roll
Red Rum’s early trainers and riders thought that he would be a sprinter. Then he only went and won back-to-back Grand Nationals – which is what Tiger Roll bids to do.
And there are similarities in that Tiger Roll is certainly not bred to be a staying chaser; nor has he the physique. The beauty of racing is that anomalies can prosper and Tiger Roll, despite having a 9lb higher rating than 12 months ago, is hot favourite.
At 7/2, he is far too short. He barely held on last year, has 30 fences to jump – as well as 39 horses to avoid and beat. In last year’s race, Davy Russell held him up in midfield, and whilst he relished the challenge, you are extremely reliant on avoiding horses falling or blundering in front of you. Russell did lose an iron briefly last year but everything else pretty much went like clockwork – note at Bechers on the first circuit how close he was to being brought down by the faller, I Just Know.
He might win but do not be backing him at his price. As Eddie O’Leary, his part-owner, told The42, “He is way too short, surely any horse is 10/1 to get around – never mind 7-2 to win. You wouldn’t back with stolen money. We would love to win the race so again but I doubt it very much.”
He is, of course, being ridiculously pessimistic – but the chance of the horse winning is somewhere between his appraisal and that of the bookmakers.
2. Cheer on the ladies – for the good of the sport
We’ve had enough negative publicity about racing with the death of Sir Erec at Cheltenham, when – for the second year running – four of the 28 races went to lady riders. Men have monopolised the National in terms of riding winners but Thursday was encouraging in two ways, Rachael Blackmore riding an Aintree winner and Tabitha Worsley scoring over the National fences less than a year and a half after breaking her back.
Gender equality is something racing should be proud of and if either Rachael (Valseur Lido) or Lizzie Kelly (Tea For Two) wins the National, the benefits for the sport’s image – and for young girls aspiring to reach the top in any sport – will be colossal.
3. Ruby’s final National – or Davy’s, or Barry’s?
We are certainly reaching the climax of a golden era. Ruby Walsh turns 40 next month and, while he has scoffed at the folly of retiring any time soon, there has to be every chance he will call it a day either at the end of this season or at the end of the 2019/2020 campaign. Noel Fehily got out while he could recently; Fran Berry, a Flat rider but younger than Ruby, was forced to quit this week.
Davy Russell turned 40 this year, Barry Geraghty will in September. The chances are one of these three legendary horsemen will be having his last ride in the race.
Richard Johnson, 41, has never ridden the National winner. He steers Rock The Kasbah, who has a definite chance, and – short of one of the gals doing the business – a victory for this proper gentleman would be enormously popular within racing.
4. Outlandish
That Michael O’Leary would willingly let go of Don Poli and Outlander – they have won six Grade 1 races between them and seven figures in prize-money for Gigginstown – might seem heartless but, to quote Del Boy, “business is business”. They were mollycoddled when they had them and O’Leary, it is generally accepted, did exceptionally well to achieve an accumulative £335,000 in Thursday’s sale of the pair post-racing at Aintree.
Richard Spencer now trains Outlander, with Keith Donoghue (of Tiger Roll fame) in the plate, while old ally Patrick Mullins steers Don Poli for Philip Kirby.
Neither horse has pace to burn any more but their new owners would seem to have money to burn.
5. Enjoy It
I remember talking to Davy Russell years ago, long before he won the National, and he his eyes lit as he said: “God I’d love to make the running in the National one day.”
We will never ride a winner in it but having your fiver each-way and gaining more belief as your steed negotiates one fence after another is certainly a thrill.
Then again he or she might be gone at the first.
And the winner? Anibale Fly.
