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Penalty analysis: 'Why didn't Cillessen stop Messi's kick?

Expert Ignacio Palacios-Huerta dissects last night’s semi-final shoot-out.

IGNACIO PALACIOS-HUERTA is the definitive penalty expert. He’s studied over 11,000 of them since 1995. He has written extensively on the theory and science behind what others dismiss as ‘a lottery’. The patterns he detected has led many teams to approach him for advise and unsurprisingly, he watched with intrigue as events unfolded in Sao Paulo last night.

Speaking to TheScore.ie, the London School of Economics professor acknowledged that a key shoot-out moment actually occurred early in extra-time when seasoned penalty-taker Robin van Persie was replaced by Klass Jan Huntelaar.

A most important aspect was van Persie being brought off. Afterwards, Van Gaal said that he would have introduced Tim Krul had he more subs left. I’m not sure it’s entirely ‘correct’ to put Ron Vlaar first. If you construct an index of ‘penalty kick importance’, it looks like a U-shape – that is the most important penalties are the first and the last. This is why I thought Van Gaal had Van Persie take the first kick against Costa Rica. Perhaps Van Gaal thought that Vlaar, who had an excellent game, was in the right psychological frame of mind and was the best possible choice. But Argentina chose Messi as their first taker!”

Brazil Soccer 2014 WCup Netherlands Argentina Natacha Pisarenko / AP/Press Association Images Natacha Pisarenko / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images

The Vlaar miss and the subsequent successful Messi attempt were the deciding factors of the shoot-out. One of Palacios-Huerta’s findings a number of years ago was the importance of the first penalty. The team that scores it has a 60/40 chance of winning. Van Gaal echoed this post-game when he said: ‘You have to maximise the first penalty shot’. Once Vlaar missed, the pressure on Dutch goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen to get his team back in the game became intense. But according to Palacios-Huerta, Cillessen should’ve made it a lot harder for Messi to score Argentina’s first penalty.
With Vlaar missing and Messi scoring, Holland’s initial 60-40 advantage quickly turned into a 31-69 disadvantage. But why didn’t Cillessen stop Messi’s kick? Last season, Messi put 5 kicks to the right and 4 to the left. 1 goalkeeper dived to the right and 8 to the left. Surely Messi was thinking that the right side was working very well for him. Did Cillessen know this? If he did, did he remember this?

Brazil Soccer WCup Netherlands Argentina Natacha Pisarenko / AP/Press Association Images Natacha Pisarenko / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images

Keeping with the pattern, Messi put his penalty to the right and Cillessen dived to his left. Still, the goalkeeper guessed correctly for two of Argentina’s four kicks – the same as Romero. The only difference was that Romero saved two. It seems cold and callous to be critical of Cillessen in such a pressurised situation like a shoot-out but there was an obvious reason why Krul was brought on against Costa Rica: the reserve is simply better at stopping shots from twelve paces away. At one stage, it seemed Cillessen was set to be a hero and palm away a poorly-directed Sergio Aguero effort. Instead, he dived over the ball. He got a strong hand to Maxi Rodriguez’ winning strike too but could only push it up rather than out and it went in via the underside of the crossbar.

Given Cillessen’s performance in the shoot-out, Van Gaal will surely regret taking Van Persie off when he did. Though the Manchester United striker was jaded and seemed a shadow of himself, Huntelaar’s introduction didn’t exactly prove a game-changing switch. And, there was a two-fold negative effect: firstly, it ensured Holland would have to find someone else to take the crucial first kick if the game went to a shoot-out and secondly, it meant Tim Krul couldn’t be introduced.

Of course, one of the biggest talking points today is Sergio Romero’s performance and whether he looked at pre-prepared notes to help guide him through the shoot-out. If anything, the way he reacted to the Dutch kicks would point to him having acted on instinct rather than research. Another penalty pattern is that takers vary kicks when taking them in quick succession (usually two in one game). As per that pattern, both Arjen Robben and Dirk Kuyt put their penalties in the opposite corners to the Costa Rica shoot-out. But Romero still dived the wrong way for both of them, indicating he hadn’t done his homework.

Brazil Soccer WCup Netherlands Argentina Martin Meissner / AP/Press Association Images Martin Meissner / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images

In 2006, during a World Cup quarter-final shoot-out against Argentina, German keeper Jens Lehmann took some notes that had been tucked into the top of his right sock, glanced at them and saved two penalties. But according to Palacios-Huerta, there’s a possible psychological effect on takers when they see a goalkeeper looking at research before a kick is taken.
The ‘true and original Lehman’ is the one where the opponent sees the goalkeeper looking at the note. The keeper knows that the kicker knows and the kicker knows that the keeper knows he knows and …. ad infinitum (we economists call this infinite chain of knowledge “common knowledge”).”
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    Mute Mervyn Queally
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    Jul 10th 2014, 5:10 PM

    He failed to save messi ‘ penalty cause he dived the wrong way. Hardly rocket science

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    Mute Leopold Dedalus
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    Jul 10th 2014, 4:52 PM

    You have to also factor in how Cillessen was undermined by the Krul change against Costa Rica. How must his confidence have been affected knowing that Van Gaal would rather have Krul in there instead of him? And of course all the Argentinean players knew they were facing up to a goalie who apparently was useless at saving penalties so they all got a confidence boost as well.

    As for the goalies doing research, that can go either way. I remember Hart against Italy in Euro 2012 was furiously flicking through pages of notes only for Pirlo to come up with that beautiful chip straight down the middle. A few people said he wouldn’t have done that if not for Hart and his notes.

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    Mute Gary Walsh
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    Jul 10th 2014, 5:10 PM

    Sorry but that’s bull. If anything Cillessen would have been eager to prove that he could have done the job. We’re talking about professionals at the top of their game. He would have been relishing the chance to be a hero. That’s the beauty of being a goalkeeper in a peno shootout.

    Him not saving any penalties has precisely zero to do with the last penalty shootout & the substitution. It likely has more to do with the fact that he just isn’t very good at it.

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    Mute John Mc Glynn
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    Jul 10th 2014, 5:27 PM

    Gotta agree with Leo. A goalkeeper needs to know that he is the undisputed number 1 and that his coach has complete faith in him. I was disgusted with Van Gaals decision to bring in Krul against Costa Rica and Kruls behaviour was dispicable. Van Gaals decision implanted that small piece of doubt into Cillessens frail mind. The psyche of a keeper is a very fragile thing as he is always just one mistake away from being vilified by everyone. I’d highly recommend both Ronald Reng biographies of keepers Robert Enke and Lars Leese.

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    Mute Alex Olsen
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    Jul 10th 2014, 5:51 PM

    yeah Leo and John, its all Van Gaal’s fault…and you both being man utd supporters…oh wait…

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    Mute Alex Olsen
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    Jul 10th 2014, 5:52 PM

    Yeah Leo and John it’s ALL Van Gaal’s fault. And you 2 being Man Utd supporters…oh wait…

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    Mute Adrian Costigan
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    Jul 10th 2014, 6:22 PM

    Cillessen didn’t exactly look short of confidence, twice taking on defenders during the game itself. He was unlucky with the two he got a hand to. Fine lines and all that…

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    Mute Padraig McKeon
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    Jul 10th 2014, 5:29 PM

    All codswallop. If a penalty taker strikes properly, you could have two keepers on the line, one diving either side, and they still wouldn’t save the well taken penalty – high and hard or low but just inside the post. The real analysis should be on the shooting. How rare is it that a well taken penalty is saved?

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    Mute Gary Sheehan Neenan
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    Jul 10th 2014, 5:54 PM

    This is the biggest load of waffle if ever seen. At the end of the day its just about luck. Its a guessing game. If the keeper guesses right he will probably save it. If he guesses wrong its a goal

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    Mute luke daly
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    Jul 10th 2014, 11:11 PM

    Cop on Gary, penalties are a multifaceted discipline for both the taker and the keeper. While saving one penalty may come down to luck both sides can give them selves an edge over the 10 penalties in a shoot out.

    If it was down to luck how do some countries like England and Holland have such poor records?

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    Mute Joe Mahon
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    Jul 11th 2014, 5:16 AM

    Absolute nonsense to say its all luck. Germany have never been beaten in a penalty shootout. Is that luck, or maybe because they prepare better and practice penalties better than other teams?
    I think this is a fascinating article, and topics like this are imperative reading for any serious professional soccer team likely to be involved in a shootout.

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    Mute William Coleman
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    Jul 10th 2014, 11:04 PM

    Cillessen has never saved a penalty in his professional career. Van Gaal probably had to replace Vsn Persie as he was jaded and tired. If he had substitution left I believe he would have brought Tim Krul on again for penalties.

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    Mute Paul O Mahony
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    Jul 10th 2014, 6:16 PM

    This guy needs to get out more

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    Mute Nick Ryan
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    Jul 10th 2014, 6:38 PM

    11,000 penalties since 1995? I’d say he’s a dab hand with the ladies!

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    Mute luke daly
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    Jul 10th 2014, 11:13 PM

    Yeah I’d say he knows how to put the ball in the back of the net.

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    Mute Andrew Potts
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    Jul 12th 2014, 6:12 PM

    For all the money these guys get ie coaches it is amazing they have no penalty shoot out strategies. It beggars belief.

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