HEADING INTO WEEK 17, nearly a third of the league is ‘on the bubble’.
Ten teams that haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet are mathematically eligible to make the playoffs on Sunday.
The NFL released a detailed breakdown of how each individual team can make it. Some of these scenarios are simple: the winners of the Philly-Dallas and Chicago-Green Bay games will make the playoffs, and the losers will be out. Other scenarios — like the AFC Wild Card, which is an absolute mess — are more complicated.
Here’s how each team can clinch a playoff berth, with odds from Football Outsiders.
1. Philadelphia Eagles (62.8% chance)
- Win or tie against Dallas
2. Dallas Cowboys (37.2% chance)
- Win against Philadelphia
3. Chicago Bears (66.8% chance)
- Win or tie against Green Bay
4. Green Bay Packers (33.2% chance)
- Win against Chicago
5. New Orleans Saints (82.8% chance)
- Win against Tampa Bay, OR
- Arizona lose to San Francisco, OR
- Tie against Tampa Bay AND Arizona tie with San Francisco
6. Arizona Cardinals (17.2% chance)
- Win or tie against San Francisco AND New Orleans lose to Tampa Bay
7. Miami Dolphins (58.7% chance)
- Win against New York Jets AND Baltimore lose/ties to Cincinnati, OR
- Win against New York Jets AND San Diego win against Kansas City, OR
- Tie against New York Jets AND Baltimore lose to Cincinnati AND San Diego lose/ties to Kansas City, OR
- Tie against New York Jets AND Baltimore ties Cincinnati AND San Diego ties Kansas City
8. Baltimore Ravens (18.9% chance)
- Win against Cincinnati AND San Diego lose/ties Kansas City, OR
- Win against Cincinnati AND Miami lose/ties New York Jets, OR
- Lose against Cincinnati AND Miami lose to New York Jets AND San Diego lose to Kansas City and Pittsburgh lose to Cleveland, OR
- Tie against Cincinnati AND Miami lose to New York Jets AND San Diego lose/ties to Kansas City, OR
- Tie against Cincinnati AND Miami ties New York Jets AND San Diego lose to Kansas City
9. San Diego Chargers (13.3% chance)
- Win against Kansas City AND Miami lose/ties to New York Jets AND Baltimore lose/ties to Cincinnati, OR
- Tie against Kansas City AND Miami lose to New York Jets AND Baltimore lose to Cincinnati
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (9.1% chance)
- Win against Cleveland AND Miami lose to New York Jets AND Baltimore lose to Cincinnati AND San Diego lose to Kansas City
Is that clear?