THE FINISH LINE is so close you might just be able to smell the trophy polish, just as soon as the rain clears.

Yet despite the top four all having guaranteed their place in the Pro12 play-offs, the margins between success and failure remain incredibly fine.

Last night’s first instalment of the post-season preview put the Ospreys out in front after they delivered an impressive performance in trying conditions to replace the Glasgow Warriors at the peak of the table.

Duncan Casey gets a hand on Darren Cave during Munster's 21 - 20 win in the reverse fixture in November. Ryan Byrne / INPHO Ryan Byrne / INPHO / INPHO

The result doesn’t change the formula for Ulster, their fate remains in their own hands even if next week’s trip to Glasgow complicates matters. The problem for all four teams is that history gives no hope to away teams in a semi-final. 20 times teams have travelled for the penultimate hurdle in this competition and 20 times the home supporters left happy.

Although a win over Munster in Kingspan Stadium today (KO 2.40pm, Sky Sports 1) would give Ulster an advantage over their provincial rivals, they would have to dig deep again a week later to secure that place in the top two.

With the final venue long since set for Belfast, Ulster want this title as badly as they craved European success in recent years. With that in mind, defence coach Jonny Bell – who will join David Humphreys in Gloucester next season – attempted to relieve some of the mounting pressure on his squad by arguing that their consistent presence in the trophy shake-up was a form of success, but added:

“Winning a trophy, I don’t think it defines how successful you are, [but] it’s what we strive for,” Bell says when the Kingspan midweek media day brought him to Dublin.

“We want silverware. Every team is the same. They want, and are determined, to bring back silverware at the end of the day. Can you want it too much? If you won’t want it enough you’ll pay the price. It’s about us making sure emotionally we’re in the right place because I’ll tell you what, Munster want it this weekend and if we don’t want it enough we’ll be on the receiving end.”

There’s little fear that Munster will have the hunger levels pitched just right. Paul O’Connell is back in the starting line-up after a reported shoulder problem coincided with the unshakable link with Toulon. The Ireland captain will be joined by Donnacha Ryan to give Munster’s second row a grizzled and powerful look to it.

Anthony Foley has preferred the scrummaging power to Eusebio Guinazu to Duncan Casey in the front row while Denis Hurley comes back in to the centre after Rory Scannell started the bonus point win over Treviso.

Ulster have been forced in to just a single change from the side that dominated Leinster last time out. The league’s leading try scorer Craig Gilroy misses out with injury and so Peter Nelson will line up opposite Keith Earls. The talent out wide is intriguing, but whatever the weather, the forward prowess of both sides will mean there is no easy route to the strike runners on the touchline.

Presseye / John Dickson/INPHO Presseye / John Dickson/INPHO / John Dickson/INPHO

“Away games: if your fundamentals are strong, if your set-piece is incredibly strong and you apply pressure in the right parts of the pitch then that goes a long way because you are stealing energy from the opposition, taking energy from the crowd,” Bell says to explain Munster’s status as the league’s most formidable road warriors.

“We must make sure that we don’t energise them, that we play in the right parts of the pitch, that we fundamentally at set piece get dominance there which is no easy feat because that is what they thrive on. They thrive on being in the right parts of the pitch and squeezing.”

Blindside Iain Henderson was speaking separately to his defence coach, but with so much preparation time between games for both teams, he was firmly on the same page.

“Their set-piece can be very dangerous; if you let them get their tails up with their set-piece. We’ve seen what their scrums can do to some teams,” said the 23-year-old powerhouse before tiring of being on a verbal back foot.

”Obviously if Paul is playing their line-out is another massive strength. Their maul is another massive strength.

“However, we have been tortured by some team’s mauls throughout this season, but if we have our mindset right though we can destroy mauls. Like, Leicester came over here and tried to maul us, and that didn’t turn out too well for them.”

“We need to make sure our intensity, like it always is for the inter-pro games, is through the roof. We need to be making sure that we can stem that maul at source, and try and dominate the set-piece.

“They’ll also be trying to work massively hard. Paul O’Connell and Peter O’Mahony, their work ethic is unbelievable. We need to make sure while we get their set-piece on the back foot, we can just keep on upping the tempo and upping the tempo because we know that we are fresh.”

Something has to give.