ONE OF the unfortunate aspects of the Euros and cup competitions generally is that the two best teams rarely meet in the final.
This truism certainly applies to Euro 2024.
Based on what has transpired, Spain and Germany are the best two teams in the competition by some distance.
Spain outclassed Georgia this evening despite going a goal behind in the first half.
Germany were not quite so convincing against Denmark last night but deserved to go through on the balance of play.
Few people will disagree that the Germans and the Spanish have excelled above everyone else.
But this situation defies many pre-tournament predictions where bookmakers and commentators were invariably tipping either England or France to triumph, and to a lesser degree, Portugal.
Yet those three countries have looked less assured for the most part.
Spain have been the strongest side — they are the only team with a 100% record at the Euros and seem to have turned things around dramatically since a shock 2-0 defeat by Scotland at the start of qualifying in March last year.
Luis de la Fuente’s men now have nine goals in the competition. Germany, their closest rivals, have scored 10. England have managed four. France, admittedly having played a game less, have found the net twice.
There is a freedom to Spain and Germany’s play, that has been conspicuously absent from France and England’s matches.
Of course, excuses have been made by these big, underperforming sides.
The pressure is supposedly a weight on English and French shoulders, and they have both been the subject of perceived unfair media criticism and unreasonable expectations.
So why are Spain and Germany playing so well by comparison?
A big factor is the centre of the pitch.
In Toni Kroos and Rodri, the two teams boast arguably the best midfielders in the world (though Luka Modric fans might disagree).
By contrast, throughout this tournament, England and France have been largely reliant on N’Golo Kante and Declan Rice at the base of midfield.
Both are undoubtedly excellent players, but neither can dictate games in the same way as Kroos and Rodri — and the latter was superb today, clinically scoring the crucial equalising goal from the edge of the area against Georgia that paved the way for an emphatic win.
Ex-Chelsea star Kante, playing club football in Saudi Arabia at 33, is no longer the world-class player he once was.
At Arsenal, Rice’s physical prowess is complemented by the intelligence and vision of Martin Odegaard — England have no player equivalent to the Norwegian even if Gareth Southgate might argue the absent Kalvin Phillips could have been that man.
Kroos and Rodri are crucial to getting their sides ticking. England have improved to a degree owing to Kobbie Mainoo’s introduction to the starting XI, but a stark lack of fluidity still characterises their play.
The Three Lions have survived thanks to moments of magic out of nothing as opposed to intelligent tactics or a coherent game plan.
Whether France can improve on their dour group stage showing against a hugely flawed Belgium team tomorrow remains to be seen, but the jury is very much out on Didier Deschamps and his squad.
Each of these four big sides also have a player who could fairly be described as a prodigy in attack — though granted, France’s Kylian Mbappe can surely no longer be considered a youngster at 25.
Of the quartet, 16-year-old Yamine Lamal and 21-year-old Jamal Musiala have been the most impressive.
Bayern Munich star Musiala is the tournament’s joint-top scorer with three goals. While Yamal has yet to find the net, he is the youngest player ever to feature at the Euros at 16 years and 338 days old against Croatia, and his dazzling pace and trickery have given Spain the type of wide threat they have so often lacked at previous tournaments.
21-year-old Jude Bellingham, despite perhaps producing the standout moment of individual brilliance in the tournament so far with his audacious last-gasp bicycle kick against the Slovaks earlier today, has been largely disappointing by comparison.
Described by many pundits as the player of the season in La Liga, the former Borussia Dortmund man has been anonymous for long stretches of games, with some critics even suggesting either dropping the Real Madrid star or moving him deeper so that Phil Foden can play in the number 10 role.
Mbappe has also struggled to live up to the hype, with his only goal coming from the penalty spot. Real Madrid’s new superstar has been somewhat unfortunate with a broken nose requiring him to wear a mask and causing him to miss their second-group match — a sub-par 0-0 draw with the Netherlands.
“I didn’t think it would be, but playing with a mask is absolutely horrible,” Mbappe told reporters on the eve of the Belgium clash in Duesseldorf.
Consequently, at this stage, all the signs indicate an imminent Spain or Germany triumph.
But one of those teams will be out of contention come Friday evening.
And the victors of that contest are hardly guaranteed to prevail either.
The best teams don’t always win knockout competitions — a case in point being Greece at Euro 2004 or Man United in the FA Cup last May.
From an English perspective, the main positive is that luck is on Southgate’s men’s side — they were just seconds away from a humiliation today that would have been on a par with the infamous loss to Iceland at Euro 2016.
France similarly tend to get the job done at major tournaments despite a series of average performances and will fancy their chances of defying the doubters again, as they did at the 2018 World Cup.
So Spain and Germany are the teams to beat and one of this pair should win it. But football is not always so straightforward and this unpredictability makes major tournaments consistently more enjoyable than the club game at the top level these days.
