ALL WEEK LONG we’ve talked about the advantage Leinster had going into the final round of Champions Cup fixtures because they could make passage the the knock-out stages straightforward.
Well, they went and and made a 14-point lead disappear against Wasps and complicated matters with a draw.
Two points was still enough to seal top spot in Pool 1 and automatic qualification for the quarter-finals. However, whether they can claim an all-important home fixture in April all comes down to what happens in Pool 4 on Sunday.
Here’s how the knock-out stage seeding looked straight after full-time in Coventry
That was still a bit complicated, but take it as read that each team in the top five MUST be a pool winner with places six, seven and eight going to the best three runners up.
To simplify the seedings table further, we’re going to go right ahead and make some big assumptions:
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A) Clermont will beat Saracens and move on to at least 22 points and, B) Toulon will beat Scarlets and join them.
The two big forces from French rugby will be just behind Racing Metro who defeated Northampton with a bonus point to leave them out on their own as the top seed with an unassailable 24 points.
This is how the table looked after ROG's Racing beat Saints.
That would leave Leinster sitting as the fourth seed, four points ahead of Toulouse and five points clear of Bath.
So, what are Bath and Toulouse up to this weather?
Toulouse top their pool by a point (with a vastly inferior points difference) before travelling to Montpellier.
Both Bath and Glasgow still hold hope of topping the pool when they meet in England tomorrow (KO 1pm, broadcast on BT).
A bonus point victory for Toulouse would guarantee top spot in their pool and push Leinster into an away quarter-final.
However, should Guy Noves’ men fail to get a bonus point then it’s nigh on impossible that they could bridge the 44-point gap to match Leinster’s points difference.
Anything less than five points would also open the door for Bath.
Mike Ford’s side will need to score four tries to challenge Leinster for a home berth. And even then they would have to beat Glasgow by 14 points to match Leinster’s points differential of 47 and so overtake them in the seedings by virtue of tries scored.
So, if Leinster are to avoid travelling for the Champions Cup quarter-final they need…
Montpellier to deny Toulouse a winning bonus point (or, better yet, a win.)
AND
Glasgow to either win in Bath, deny them a bonus-point win or lose by a margin less than 14 points.
Is that so much to ask? Dan Sheridan / INPHO
Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO
In any case, Leinster are likely to come up against the winners of pool 4 in the quarter-final.
Here's what Leinster need to claim a home Champions Cup quarter-final
ALL WEEK LONG we’ve talked about the advantage Leinster had going into the final round of Champions Cup fixtures because they could make passage the the knock-out stages straightforward.
Well, they went and and made a 14-point lead disappear against Wasps and complicated matters with a draw.
Two points was still enough to seal top spot in Pool 1 and automatic qualification for the quarter-finals. However, whether they can claim an all-important home fixture in April all comes down to what happens in Pool 4 on Sunday.
Here’s how the knock-out stage seeding looked straight after full-time in Coventry
That was still a bit complicated, but take it as read that each team in the top five MUST be a pool winner with places six, seven and eight going to the best three runners up.
To simplify the seedings table further, we’re going to go right ahead and make some big assumptions:
A) Clermont will beat Saracens and move on to at least 22 points and, B) Toulon will beat Scarlets and join them.
The two big forces from French rugby will be just behind Racing Metro who defeated Northampton with a bonus point to leave them out on their own as the top seed with an unassailable 24 points.
That would leave Leinster sitting as the fourth seed, four points ahead of Toulouse and five points clear of Bath.
So, what are Bath and Toulouse up to this weather?
Toulouse top their pool by a point (with a vastly inferior points difference) before travelling to Montpellier.
Both Bath and Glasgow still hold hope of topping the pool when they meet in England tomorrow (KO 1pm, broadcast on BT).
A bonus point victory for Toulouse would guarantee top spot in their pool and push Leinster into an away quarter-final.
However, should Guy Noves’ men fail to get a bonus point then it’s nigh on impossible that they could bridge the 44-point gap to match Leinster’s points difference.
Anything less than five points would also open the door for Bath.
Mike Ford’s side will need to score four tries to challenge Leinster for a home berth. And even then they would have to beat Glasgow by 14 points to match Leinster’s points differential of 47 and so overtake them in the seedings by virtue of tries scored.
So, if Leinster are to avoid travelling for the Champions Cup quarter-final they need…
Montpellier to deny Toulouse a winning bonus point (or, better yet, a win.)
AND
Glasgow to either win in Bath, deny them a bonus-point win or lose by a margin less than 14 points.
In any case, Leinster are likely to come up against the winners of pool 4 in the quarter-final.
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