SHAMROCK ROVERS FACE the hardest start to the 2015 SSE Airtricity League Premier Division season.

(At least, that’s if you believe our highly scientific calculations that definitely weren’t worked out on the back of a beermat.)

The42‘s analysis of the first five rounds of fixtures shows that the Hoops face the hardest run between now and the end of March, followed closely by Derry City and Sligo Rovers.

Pat Fenlon’s side open their campaign with a Dublin derby at home to St Pat’s on Friday night before playing Longford (A), Cork City (H), Sligo Rovers (A) and Bohemians (H).

How did we work it out?

Each team was ranked in accordance with their pre-season odds, with league favourites St Pat’s weighted at 12 points and outsiders Drogheda and Bray at 1.5 pts each.

If you disagree with the rankings, don’t blame us — blame the bookies.

• St Pat’s (12)
• Dundalk, Shamrock Rovers (10.5)
• Cork City (9)
• Sligo Rovers (8)
• Derry City (7)
• Longford Town (6)
• Bohemian FC (5)
• Galway United (4)
• Limerick (3)
• Drogheda United (1.5)
• Bray Wanderers (1.5)

We then calculated the difficulty of each fixture according to the opponents’ weight, and multiplied by a factor of 1.3 for away games.

(In 2014, there were 61 away wins out of 198 Premier Division games – just over 30%.)

For example, Rovers’ first five games of the season are:

• Pat’s (H)
• Longford (A)
• Cork (H)
• Sligo (A)
• Bohs (H)

So their strength of schedule is:

• Pat’s (H) = 12
• Longford (A) – 6 x 1.3 = 7.8
• Cork (H) = 9
• Sligo (A) – 8 x 1.3 = 10.4
• Bohs (H) = 5
• Total: 44.2 points

Here’s how it all stacks up:

• Shamrock Rovers – 44.2 pts
• Derry City – 43.2 pts
• Sligo Rovers – 42.1 pts
• Dundalk – 41.6 pts
• St Pat’s – 39.7 pts
• Bray Wanderers – 38.9 pts
• Galway United – 35.8 pts
• Longford Town – 34.75 pts
• Bohemian FC – 34 pts
• Limerick – 33.65 pts
• Cork City – 33 pts
• Drogheda United – 27.25 pts

There you have it – science. If Cork are top of the league come the end of the month, we’ll feel vindicated.

– First published 14.09

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