AFTER THIS MORNING’S game in Canberra, Ireland are now halfway through their Pool B campaign but Phil Simmons’ side will be determined to extend their World Cup beyond the group stages.
The heavy defeat to South Africa may seem detrimental to their chances of progressing to the knock-out phase but having won their opening two games, Ireland remain in a healthy position.
The remaining three fixtures for William Porterfield and his charges are coming thick and fast, starting with Saturday’s showdown with Zimbabwe in Hobart.
With Pool B being so tight and competitive, there has been a lot of talk about the vagaries of net run-rate or cricket’s equivalent of goal difference.
But, what does it all actually mean and what do Ireland require from their final games in order to qualify for the last eight?
The current state of play
There is still along way to go in this group with nine games yet to be played. A lot can happen in the next two weeks but for the purpose of these permutations, we’re assuming India and South Africa will advance as winners and runners-up, or vice versa, and will win their remaining games.
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Tuesday’s 201-run defeat to South Africa has seen Ireland slip down one place to fourth in Pool B with West Indies, ourselves, Zimbabwe and Pakistan all harbouring hopes of filling the two remaining qualification places.
ICC Cricket
ICC Cricket
What is net run-rate and why is it important?
As per the tournament regulations, if two teams finish on equal points in a Pool, the right to play in the quarter-finals will be decided by amount of wins per team and then net run-rate.
Given any sides that finish level will have won the same amount of games (unless they are involved in two ties or a no-result) then net run-rate will be the deciding factor.
A team’s net run-rate is calculated by deducting the average amount of runs per over they concede by the average runs per over they score over the course of the group stages. Got that?
Therefore, today’s heavy defeat to the Proteas dented Ireland’s net run-rate significantly. South Africa scored at 8.22 runs per over while Ireland went at just 4.66. Furthermore, Ireland didn’t bat all of their allocated 50 overs so that affects their net run-rate too.
Taking that into account, Ireland’s net run-rate went from +0.338 to -1.137. That leaves them with a worse net-run rate than West Indies and Zimbabwe but marginally better than Pakistan.
Rob Griffith
Rob Griffith
What do Ireland need to do to qualify?
Getting tied down on net run-rate is a dangerous tactic because you then start to rely on other results going your way. Ireland will want to take care of their own business and be in control of their own destiny.
To do that they need two more wins from their remaining three games. The two games they’ll be targeting are this weekend’s clash with Zimbabwe and the final fixture against Pakistan. A meeting with defending champions India in Hamilton comes in-between those two matches.
Four more points would bring Ireland’s tally to eight and regardless of what happens elsewhere, that would be enough to secure them a place in the quarter-finals.
Remaining fixtures:
v Zimbabwe, Saturday 7 March, 3.30am
v India, Tuesday 10 March, 1am
v Pakistan, Sunday 15 March, 3.30am
They can, however, sneak through with just one more win but this is where it starts to get complicated. Should Ireland beat Zimbabwe in the early hours of Saturday morning and lose to Pakistan, we’ll be in all likelihood locked on six points with them and West Indies and that’s when net run-rate will come into play.
Lose to Zimbabwe and beat Pakistan is arguably a better scenario though because it would knock Pakistan out of the running and leave ourselves and WI as the two other qualifiers (assuming Zimbabwe don’t pull off a shock and beat India).
Just keep it simple, lads. Two more wins will do fine to set-up an Irish takeover in Sydney for the quarter-final.
How does this morning's hefty defeat affect Ireland's chances of World Cup progression?
AFTER THIS MORNING’S game in Canberra, Ireland are now halfway through their Pool B campaign but Phil Simmons’ side will be determined to extend their World Cup beyond the group stages.
The heavy defeat to South Africa may seem detrimental to their chances of progressing to the knock-out phase but having won their opening two games, Ireland remain in a healthy position.
The remaining three fixtures for William Porterfield and his charges are coming thick and fast, starting with Saturday’s showdown with Zimbabwe in Hobart.
With Pool B being so tight and competitive, there has been a lot of talk about the vagaries of net run-rate or cricket’s equivalent of goal difference.
But, what does it all actually mean and what do Ireland require from their final games in order to qualify for the last eight?
The current state of play
There is still along way to go in this group with nine games yet to be played. A lot can happen in the next two weeks but for the purpose of these permutations, we’re assuming India and South Africa will advance as winners and runners-up, or vice versa, and will win their remaining games.
Tuesday’s 201-run defeat to South Africa has seen Ireland slip down one place to fourth in Pool B with West Indies, ourselves, Zimbabwe and Pakistan all harbouring hopes of filling the two remaining qualification places.
What is net run-rate and why is it important?
As per the tournament regulations, if two teams finish on equal points in a Pool, the right to play in the quarter-finals will be decided by amount of wins per team and then net run-rate.
Given any sides that finish level will have won the same amount of games (unless they are involved in two ties or a no-result) then net run-rate will be the deciding factor.
A team’s net run-rate is calculated by deducting the average amount of runs per over they concede by the average runs per over they score over the course of the group stages. Got that?
Therefore, today’s heavy defeat to the Proteas dented Ireland’s net run-rate significantly. South Africa scored at 8.22 runs per over while Ireland went at just 4.66. Furthermore, Ireland didn’t bat all of their allocated 50 overs so that affects their net run-rate too.
Taking that into account, Ireland’s net run-rate went from +0.338 to -1.137. That leaves them with a worse net-run rate than West Indies and Zimbabwe but marginally better than Pakistan.
What do Ireland need to do to qualify?
Getting tied down on net run-rate is a dangerous tactic because you then start to rely on other results going your way. Ireland will want to take care of their own business and be in control of their own destiny.
To do that they need two more wins from their remaining three games. The two games they’ll be targeting are this weekend’s clash with Zimbabwe and the final fixture against Pakistan. A meeting with defending champions India in Hamilton comes in-between those two matches.
Four more points would bring Ireland’s tally to eight and regardless of what happens elsewhere, that would be enough to secure them a place in the quarter-finals.
Remaining fixtures:
They can, however, sneak through with just one more win but this is where it starts to get complicated. Should Ireland beat Zimbabwe in the early hours of Saturday morning and lose to Pakistan, we’ll be in all likelihood locked on six points with them and West Indies and that’s when net run-rate will come into play.
Lose to Zimbabwe and beat Pakistan is arguably a better scenario though because it would knock Pakistan out of the running and leave ourselves and WI as the two other qualifiers (assuming Zimbabwe don’t pull off a shock and beat India).
Just keep it simple, lads. Two more wins will do fine to set-up an Irish takeover in Sydney for the quarter-final.
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