Updated at 11.49
IT’S BEEN WELL documented that qualification for the 2018 World Cup in Russia is now out of Ireland’s hands.
Even if Martin O’Neill’s side pick up six points in their final games against Moldova and Wales, which is an admittedly quite optimistic expectation given the team’s disappointing results and performances lately, there is a decent chance they will exit the competition as the tournament’s worst second-place team (only eight of the nine runners-up reach the play-offs).
Here’s a look at the best runners-up table as it stands, with Wales — who are currently second in Ireland’s group — bottom.
Keep in mind that in determining the second-place table, the results against the bottom side in all of the respective groups are discounted.
And here is Ireland’s group as it stands…
The following Group D games remain…
6 October
Georgia v Wales (5pm)
Ireland v Moldova (7.45pm)
Austria v Serbia (7.45pm)
9 October
Moldova v Austria (7.45pm)
Serbia v Georgia (7.45pm)
Wales v Ireland (7.45pm)
So let’s assume, for the sake of this exercise, that Ireland win their final two matches. That would leave them on 19 points. However, they would be on just 13 points in the runners-up table, due to the two wins over Moldova not registering.
As it stands, only Group B is assured of its second-place team reaching the play-offs. However, Ireland fans will likely see Groups H, F and E as their best hopes of qualifying for the play-offs.
Keep in mind that what is needed is for a second-place team finishing on less than 13 points and therefore, below Ireland.
Consequently, in addition to six points in their upcoming two matches, one of the following three scenarios would assure Ireland of a spot in the play-offs at least…
Scenario 1
Group H - Bosnia failing to beat either Belgium or Estonia (which would leave them on 12 points at best in the second-place table) and Greece failing to beat Cyprus (their last game is against bottom-place Gibraltar so will not count if they finish second).
Scenario 2
Group F - Slovakia losing to Scotland (the Slovaks’ final game is against bottom-place Malta so won’t count) and Scotland drawing with Slovenia, or Slovenia beating Scotland and failing to beat England (coupled with the first result mentioned).
Scenario 3
Group E - Montenegro drawing with Denmark and failing to beat Poland, plus Denmark failing to beat Romania.
So how likely are they to happen?
Of the aforementioned scenarios, number 3 looks the most unlikely, given that Romania are already out of contention and have nothing to play for, so Denmark will be strong favourites to beat them at home.
1 and 2 therefore are probably the scenarios Martin O’Neill’s side can look to as having the best chance of coming to fruition.
Could any other favourable permutations go Ireland’s way?
There are other positive scenarios from an Irish perspective too, but the above three are the easiest to explain and arguably the most likely to occur. Group A, which is led by France and followed by Sweden, is another instance where Ireland could benefit from favourable results. However, it is far more complicated owing to the fact that both first and last place is looking far from certain at this juncture, thereby multiplying the potential permutations significantly.
Goal difference could also come into play, if Ireland find themselves level on points with another team in the second-place table, although the Boys in Green, currently on +1 with the Moldova result discarded, are not looking especially healthy in this regard either.
Of course, even if Ireland win both their remaining games and results elsewhere work out favourably, they would still almost certainly need to qualify via the play-offs, with some strong sides likely to feature, while the potential task has been made ostensibly more difficult following recent confirmation that the draw for these games will be seeded.
Are there any other alternative situations we should know about?
It almost certainly won’t happen, but there is also still a very small chance of Ireland topping their group and qualifying automatically. This situation would occur if Serbia lost their final two games against Austria and Georgia and the Boys in Green got six points. Alternatively, a heavy Irish win over Moldova (a victory by four or five goals would put them in contention) and a defeat of Wales could also see them qualify automatically, if the Serbs fail to get more than a point in their climactic fixtures.
Furthermore, Ireland could actually afford to slip up against Moldova if Wales do likewise in Georgia, though their final game in Cardiff is likely to be a must-win regardless.
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From 1-23 they were all magnificent yesterday and as expected our bench made a massive difference but I would like to give a special mention to Rory O’ Loughlin coming on after 19 minutes for one of if not the greatest Leinster players, in a position that wouldn’t be his strongest and he played beautifully. Yes he had guidance from Sexton inside him and Gary outside but I thought he played an absolute blinder. Hope he can push on next season and get himself in the mix for the World Cup.
@Ian Verdon: he did have a great game, my general frustration with o’loughlin is that he doesn’t pass, he goes for the glory. Not a chance of him getting to japan if ringrose, bundee, henshaw and farrell stay injury free.
@Danger: Most young players are guilty of going for glory(Larmour at times) but that can be easily altered through coaching and mentoring from senior players. Yes I agree he would be doing well to get in the mix with the players you mentioned ahead of him and the likes of Scannell and Arnold too but if he keeps performing well when called upon you never know he also covers 12,13, and 14 which is a bonus.
Sexton only started 3 times for Leinster all year. Ross Byrne made most starts of all players, scored a load of points and didn’t even make the bench today! There’s your star this year for Leinster this year.
@Declan Gibney: byrne has come on a huge amount this year, he was very good versus Munster.
@Declan Gibney: the star of the season was fardy.
Leo Cullen is the Zinedine Zidane of Rugby
Most complete 10 in irish rugby! I still carter is probably the best ever.
The way Johnny can direct a game and influence it in so many other ways is miles ahead of any other 10 we have right now. He’s a tough cookie but if he had to go out for any period of time through injury we don’t have the same depth as other positions to fill the gap.
Extra levels of maturity this season to go with the great play have made him a better player than ever.
Just hope he can keep this up until Japan.
Carbery needs to start a test in Oz with Murray inside him.
Johnny needs lots of cotton wool!
And people still compare him to R’OG
@Bob Joe: as a 10 there is a debate but as a rugby player Sexton is miles better. It’s like Barrett and Sexton, I think Sexton is the better 10 but Barrett Is a better player
@Bob Joe:
Knob
Just aswell he’s good st rugby. I just saw a video of him singing last night….!
K